Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?

Nick Rockett (orange and black, near side) won the race in the 2025 [Getty Images]

The Grand National at Aintree is among the highlights of the British horse racing calendar.

But, with 34 runners, picking the winner can be something of a lottery.

Can the past winners guide you in the right direction? BBC Sport looks at the data to try to find the 2026 winner.

• I Am Maximus heads Grand National field
• Grand National: Runners, weights & jockeys for 2026 race

How do favourites fare and what price does the winner tend to be?

Since 2000 there have been 25 renewals of the race, with no running in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The shortest-priced winner was Tiger Roll at 4-1 in 2019, when he became the first back-to-back victor since Red Rum in the 1970s.

The biggest price was Mon Mome in 2009 (100-1), with last year's winner - Nick Rockett - going off at 33-1.

The average price of the winner this century has been just under 24-1, so with that - and the fact eight winners have been priced 33-1 or higher - don't let bigger odds put you off.

That said, the average price does drop in the past 10 renewals, with the winner 11-1 or shorter on five occasions.

Six favourites (including joint favourites) have won the race this century, with three of those in the past six - including I Am Maximus in 2024.

The favourite or a joint-favourite has also finished in the top five on a further 12 occasions since 2000.

Is there an ideal weight to carry?

There is no obvious trend, with winners of the past 25 races carrying between 10st 3lb and 11st 9lb.

If that continues, that would rule out the top six in the field - particularly I Am Maximus, who is attempting to become the first top weight to win since Red Rum carried 12 stone to victory in 1974.

Nine of the past 11 winners have carried between 10st 5lb and 11st 8lb, which may help you to reduce the field a little.

Looking across the past 25 runnings, the average weight of the winner is between 10st 12lb and 10st 13lb. Those specific weights have a combined three winners, while 11st 6lb has been the most successful individual weight with three victories.

How old should my horse be?

This is where the trends - certainly in recent years - become a bit easier to spot.

No horse aged 10 or above has won the race since 2014, while in 2022 Noble Yeats bucked another trend by becoming the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar in 1940.

Based on that, the date suggests horses aged eight or nine are the ones to focus on.

Aside from Noble Yeats' victory, the other races in the past 10 years have been won by six eight-year-olds and three nine-year-olds, with one of the latter being Tiger Roll coming back to win it again in 2019.

Does Grand National experience help?

In short, no.

The Grand National is a unique test of stamina and has very different fences to other races over the season.

In its past 15 runnings, the only winner with previous experience was Tiger Roll when he completed the double in 2019. He hadn't featured before his 2018 win.

The first 10 years of the decade were more even, with five of the winners having previously run in the race.

But as changes has been made to the number of runners and fences, experience in isn't essential.

Is there a particular trainer or jockey I should follow?

The Grand National is harder to predict than other meetings such as Cheltenham, where there are often trainers and jockeys to follow.

Willie Mullins has trained the past two winners, but those were his first victories since Hedgehunter in 2005. He has had six top-five finishers in the past 10 runnings, though, so is usually in amongst it.

Gordon Elliott had back-to-back wins with Tiger Roll and has had four top-five finishers in the past decade, too.

Henry de Bromhead won the race in 2021 and has also had two places.

That trio are set to train 16 of the 34 runners in this year's race.

Of the jockeys, Paul Townend has two places to go with his 2024 win. He's opted for I Am Maximum and would have had the pick as Mullins' stable jockey.

Jack Kennedy has finished in the top five on four occasions, while Mark Walsh has three top-five finishes and Danny Mullins two.

Which other stats may help?

Official rating

Every horse in training is giving an official rating by the handicapper based on the level that they run to. Fourteen of the past 16 winners have been rated 146+, with 13 of those between 146 and 160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett were rated 159 and 163 going into the past two editions so a higher mark may be a positive.

Runs since September

In the first seven runnings this decade, five winners had run six times since September, with the others having five and three outings.

That trend has settled down in the past 10 years, with the average being four runs. Noble Yeats had seven before his 2022 run, while five had been in three races.

No winner in the past 25 editions has run fewer than three times that season.

Trainer location

An English trainer last won the race in 2015, with an Irish trainer winning seven of the nine since. Scot Lucinda Russell has had two winners, though she has no runners this year.

Breeding

Of the 24 hours to win the race this century, 18 were Irish-bred, four were French-bred and two British-bred.

Finish last time out

Of the past 25 winners, 11 have finished in the top two of their previous run.

Six of the past eight winners also won their previous race, though Noble Yeats was ninth and Minella Times pulled up.

Four of the six winners before that had finished in the top four too, so the trends suggest form is a factor.

Career falls

Every winner this century except Auroras Encore had two or fewer falls in their career prior to the race.

In the past decade, Minella Times is the only horse to have fallen in their career and won the Grand National.

Won over three miles or more

Twenty one of the 24 different horses to have won this century have all registered at least one career win over three or more miles before winning the National.

Eighteen of them have won more than two races over that trip, though two of the past five aren't included in that group.

Days since last run

The average break between runs for the past 10 winners is just over 41 days, with a range of 24-84 days.

If you take out the two highest and lowest, you're left with a gap of 36 days.

Who does that leave for the 2026 Grand National?

So what does that mean for this year's 34 runners?

If we start with age, the trends suggest we can rule out 17 horses because they are either seven or older than 10.

Haiti Couleurs would have to carry more weight than any winner this century, so the data is not in his favour, while Imperial Saint and Amirite's rating is below 146 so they can be knocked off.

Perceval Legallois has only had two runs since September, so he drops out on that metric, while Spanish Harlem and High Class Hero were pulled up on their last run.

Every remaining horse passes the test when it comes to career falls, but Iroko, Gorgeous Tom and Firefox are yet to win over three or more miles.

That would leave eight horses - and all have run in the past 68 days, with seven in the past 49 days.

Answer to Kayf is not Irish-bred so that goes against him, while Johnnywho has a British trainer so recent history is against him too.

That leaves six horses: Monty's Star, Lecky Watson, Three Card Brag, Oscars Brother, Stellar Story and Captain Cody.

Based on the stats, your 2026 Grand National winner is most likely to come from those, but remember this is only a guide and sticking to your favourite number, name or silk that you like may serve you just as well!

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