Inside Arsenal’s title doubts – and what will make the difference in Man City race

As the Arsenal players returned to the dressing room in Sporting’s Estadio Jose Alvalade, the Kai Havertz version of Shakira’s “Waka Waka” could be heard in celebration of the German’s winner. Mikel Arteta’s squad have a relatable tendency to belt out supporter chants after especially joyous victories, of which there have been a few this season.

Those wins also feel all the more special because there have been a fair few moments of tension and doubt, notably over the last two weeks. Two domestic cup defeats in a row were cast as potentially bringing an emotional shift in the title race, as the international withdrawals only brought more noise.

Winning in Lisbon has given Arteta’s team a new assurance ahead of a very awkward fixture (Getty)

Against Sporting, Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli instead brought the joy back.

This obviously isn’t to say that the situation was one of terminal gloom, but Arteta evidently felt the response in Lisbon was significant for reasons beyond just claiming a first-leg win in a Champions League quarter-final. “It was a big night, a big moment in the season,” Arteta said. “Especially where we’re coming from, I think we had a point to prove.”

They now have a good feeling to savour, ahead of a Premier League match at home to Bournemouth on Saturday that sources are already building up as one of the stadium’s biggest in years.

That is all the more important given Manchester City’s own surge. After the team completed a serious tactical number on Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final, it was like they enjoyed the release of a new conviction by letting loose against Liverpool in the FA Cup.

Pep Guardiola’s side were certainly enjoying their football there, which is why Arsenal’s win over Sporting was a required response.

Had Arteta’s side only drawn 0-0, it might have stabilised them again after recent defeats, but it still would have been a third successive winless game with only one goal scored. The sense would have persisted of a team currently toiling, of constantly trying merely to get through this. It also would have given them so much more to do for Wednesday’s return leg, with that potentially weighing over Saturday even more.

As it is, they have a new assurance ahead of a very awkward fixture.

Arsenal and Arteta were grateful for Havertz’s late winner in Lisbon to lift the mood ahead of the return of the Premier League (AFP/Getty)

If such sentiments alone read like a rather absurd pendulum swing when campaigns are so long, it only echoes a theme of this season.

Rarely has a title race involved so much emotion. Even in 2018-19 – which involved Liverpool trying to end a longer, 29-year wait – there were very few results that left anyone enduring such interrogation over their sporting character.

The Premier League, however, has changed. The Independent has reported on how several factors have come together to ensure it is newly competitive. There have never been so few thrashings in a season, with only six wins by four-plus goals.

Given that so many matches have gone to the wire, it stands to reason that the campaign has been characterised by these emotional shifts. Arsenal are at one moment looking steeled, only to then seem wracked by doubt. City are back, then they’re pegged back. City have the momentum, only for Arsenal to generate their own.

Nico O’Reilly’s double in the Carabao Cup final could have given Manchester City the momentum ahead of the run-in (Action Images/Reuters)

You can see why Arteta has told his players that they can’t live like this, and to look at it all as something to aspire to.

Guardiola doesn’t quite have to do the same thing, despite how new a lot of his squad are to a title race. City aren’t surrounded by the same doubt. They are still coming off an era in which they have been the most dominant champions the English league has ever seen: four titles in a row, seven in eight seasons that brought record points returns.

The very awareness of that record has influenced how Arsenal think, too. There is that constant concern that City might put one of those winning runs together, as the last two games – convincing wins over Arsenal and Liverpool – suggested.

And it’s also why “mood”, even “vibes”, may well end up deciding this title.

If that sounds absurd in an era where Guardiola is one of the most tactically sophisticated coaches the game has ever seen and Arteta one of the most tactically meticulous, with both of their teams ultimately backed by super projects involving the most advanced sports science and analytics, the two managers themselves completely subscribe to such feelings about psychology. “You can smell it,” as they often say.

Pep Guardiola and Erling Haaland will be bidding to hunt Arsenal down ahead of next week’s potential title decider (AFP/Getty)

They, of course, know that all of the primary factors – the wage bill, the squad quality, the depth, the tactical ideology – form over 90 per cent of any trophy-challenging team. But it is the psychology that often makes the one per cent that can take you over the line. Especially in title races like this.

A good mood, or a new momentum, can amplify everything else. That is also more important when teams are enduring physical fatigue, as has been the case in another mega season. Wins like Arsenal’s on Tuesday, or City’s on Saturday, can carry a team through a fair bit. Mood is so important.

That will immediately be seen on Saturday afternoon. The Arsenal stadium is going to be anxious. Bournemouth are a hugely testing challenge, almost exactly the wrong opposition for this type of occasion. They are in burgeoning form and well rested, amid the settled mood that comes from being satisfied with where they are, yet still able to achieve bigger ambitions.

That, to go with Andoni Iraola’s tactical acumen, is a potentially lethal combination for Arsenal.

Except, it’s not. Even if they don’t win, there is still so much to play for. There is still so much space for more swings – not least as regards next week’s grand showdown at City. The worry will be more about what any setback at this point does to the team’s psychology, which is why victory is seen as so crucial.

Bournemouth won at the Emirates last season and will be awkward opponents for the leaders before Man City go to Chelsea (Getty)

It could also involve another shift, perhaps to illustrate how this weekend might be a microcosm of the entire season.

Whatever Arsenal do will obviously have a bearing on City’s own difficult trip to Chelsea the next day. Liam Rosenior is understood to be strikingly focused on that, all the more so amid the controversy over Enzo Fernandez.

For an illustration of how this works, you only have to look at the last Premier League weekend, long ago as it was.

Arsenal got that late win over Everton at the same time City were preparing for a tough game, away to West Ham United, that ended in a draw.

Now, this weekend carries even greater stakes because of how it will naturally shape the approaches going into that City-Arsenal match on Sunday week.

Arsenal want the cushion to know that even a draw keeps Guardiola’s side at arm’s length. City want all the pressure to be ratcheting up for Arsenal to such an extent that they feel a defeat will bring the world down on top of them. That may be possible if Arteta’s side slip up against Bournemouth.

So many people involved are already seeing the potential chain reactions from various results. It is why the emotional momentum that sets it off is so crucial.