MLB 2026 Home Run Leader Long Shot Prediction, Odds, Betting: James Wood vs Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, More

MLB 2026 Home Run Leader Long Shot Prediction, Odds, Betting: James Wood vs Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, More

The MLB is two weeks into the season and we have a name worth considering to lead the league in homers this season. Most of the money and bets are on the obvious picks, Shohei Ohtani (+175), Aaron Judge (+190), Kyle Schwarber (+250), and Cal Raleigh (+1500), but how many people notice the evolution of James Wood?

I don't think enough. Let's take a dive into the Nationals star hitter and why he's a good bet to lead the MLB at +20000 odds, meaning $10 to win $2,000!

MLB Home Run Leader Long Shot: James Wood (+20000)

Last season, Cal Raleigh crushed 60 homers to lead the MLB, while three others hit between 53 and 56. In the same year, seven players crushed 40-plus home runs and 33 players hit at least 30 home runs with James Wood being one of them (31).

Wood is tied fourth with a bunch of hitters at five home runs this season, including Oneil Cruz (+3500), Elly De La Cruz (off the board), and Shohei Ohtani (+170). Only Gunnar Henderson (6, +17500), Yordan Alvarez (6, +1600), and Jordan Walker (7, +7000) have more homers than Wood. Despite only a few players have the same amount of homers or more, Wood has the worst odds besides De La Cruz, which I don't think is correct. Wood cracked 31 homers last year and could certainly surpass 40 or more this year with 50 being in reach.

Looking at Wood's baseball savant page, the 6-foot-6 and 234 lbs power hitter has superb slug, barrel, hard hit, and bat speed numbers. Wood's bat speed is higher than Ohtani's and his hard hit percentages are higher than Judge's for example. Both his bat speed and hard hit numbers are higher than Schwarber and Raleigh's as well with Wood's barrel rates matching the best of the best.

James Wood baseball savant page

Looking at Wood's hits spray chart, two of his doubles could have been home runs depending on the ball park as well, so he very well could be leading the league with seven bombs, but rather has five.

Going over the last four home run champions, Raleigh (60), Aaron Judge twice (58, 62), and Matt Olson (54) all reached at least 54 homers. However, before that, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (48), Salvador Perez (48), Pete Alonso (53), and Khris Davis (48) all hit 53 or less, which is hittable numbers for a 23-year-old.

Wood is likely going to take a significant jump this year. In 79 games as a rookie in 2024, Wood hit nine home runs and already has five through 15 games this year. In 2025, Wood had 598 at-bats over 157 games played, 221 strikeouts, and fell just short of 100 RBI (94).

Wood struck out in over 36% of his at-bats last year, which this year is slightly lower through 15 games (33%), but he will need to drop the Ks more than that. When he makes contact, he is one of the most dangerous hitters and with a 3.7 WAR last year and .825 OPS — it's evident that Wood will surpass those numbers in his third year. He has been one of the most underrated hitters in the league in 2025 and the start of 2026, but for how much longer can we ignore Wood?

I grabbed Wood to lead the league in homers at +20000 odds. Wood is hitting .350 with four home runs, 14 hits, 11 runs, 11 RBI, and a 1.219 OPS in 10 games during April. If his April run continues, we should expect him to finish the month top five in home runs and this 200-to-1 price will vanish.

Pick: James Wood to lead MLB in home runs (0.25 units)

MLB Futures Card

3 units: Pittsburgh Pirates Over 76.5 Wins (-115)
2 units: Detroit Tigers to win AL Central (+110)
1 unit: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (+550)
1 unit: Ronald Acuna Jr. to win NL MVP (+1000)
1 unit: Pittsburgh Pirates to win NL Central (+800)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+250)
1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+425)
1 unit: Mason Miller to win NL Cy Young (+3500)
0.5 unit: Konnor Griffin to win NL Rookie of the Year (+600)
0.5 units: Bubba Chandler to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1200)
0.25 units: Bubba Chandler to win NL Rookie of the Year (+2200)
0.25 units: James Wood to lead MLB in Home runs (+20000)
0.25 units: Detroit Tigers to have the most wins (+4500)
0.25 units: Philadelphia Phillies to win the World Series (+1600)
0.25 units: Atlanta Braves to win the World Series (+2000)
0.25 units: Detroit Tigers to win the World Series

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