MLB panic meter: How worried should we be about the Red Sox, Cubs, Giants and more?

Two weeks. 12 games. Four series. Roughly 8% of the marathon that is the 162-game, 52-series regular season is in the books. It ain’t much, but for a selection of playoff hopefuls, the start to the 2026 campaign has not been nearly as smooth as hoped.

Here’s a look at six teams off to inconsistent — or downright disappointing — starts to the season, with what has gone wrong so far and reasons for optimism amid the malaise.

Boston Red Sox

Record entering play Friday: 4-8 (fifth in AL East)

What’s gone wrong: The Red Sox enter most seasons with sizable expectations, considering the intense nature of the Boston fan base. And after another offseason of overhauling the roster in unexpected and in some respects uninspiring ways, it was important for the Red Sox to start strong and quiet the skepticism surrounding president of baseball operations Craig Breslow’s team building. Instead, the Sox flopped out of the gate, earning baseball’s worst record through 10 games and falling quickly into the basement of MLB’s least forgiving division.

Several holdovers, such as Trevor Story, Jarren Duran and even Roman Anthony, have underperformed, but the optics of some of the newcomers struggling (Ranger Suarez, Caleb Durbin) or immediately getting injured (Johan Oviedo) add fuel to the distrust of the current regime’s strategy, even after the team qualified for the postseason last year. And speaking of optics, owner John Henry seemingly being caught on camera in his suite at Fenway this week flippantly dismissing the “Sell the team” chants from the crowd didn’t exactly help matters.

Reasons for optimism: After a 2-8 start, the Red Sox responded with a much-needed series victory over the Brewers, holding Milwaukee to two runs over the final 18 innings after a sloppy 8-6 defeat in the opener. Those two wins were also refreshing demonstrations of the genre of games Boston should be able to win based on its roster. The Red Sox recorded just one extra-base hit across the two victories, but when you have Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray capable of gobbling up six innings unbothered and top-tier relievers such as Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman on the back end, there’s a path to success that doesn’t involve an overwhelming offense.

Things also haven’t been all bad at the plate, as Wilyer Abreu has been outstanding and Willson Contreras — one of the most overlooked offensive additions for any contender this past winter — has provided an ideal right-handed element to the lefty-heavy heart of Boston’s lineup. Yes, the road ahead is daunting, and Boston’s playoff odds at FanGraphs have already dropped from 61% on Opening Day to 47% two weeks later, but the Sox have enough talent to turn this thing around.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 4-9 (fifth in AL West)

What’s gone wrong: While accounting for the fact that the Mariners have played 10 of their 13 games against teams with quality pitching staffs (Guardians, Yankees, Rangers) in some notoriously pitcher-friendly ballparks (T-Mobile Park, Globe Life Field), Seattle’s collective offensive output has been abysmal by multiple measures. The team ranks 30th in MLB in runs per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage — you name it, the M’s are bringing up the rear. Their paltry .238 BABIP (also 30th) suggests some bad luck is involved, but it’s not like the Mariners are crushing the ball and not being rewarded; they rank 29th in hard-hit rate and 26th in xwOBA, process-oriented marks that don’t portray a particularly threatening offense.

Dig into the individual performances, and it’s not hard to identify the issue: The stars aren’t hitting like stars. Fresh off a historic, 60-homer campaign in 2025, Cal Raleigh finally got on the board with an impressive blast against Jacob deGrom earlier this week to conclude a 12-pitch battle, but the other purported sluggers in the lineup — Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena — are all homerless through two weeks. Naylor hasn’t even scored a run yet, with far-and-away the most plate appearances of any hitter yet to cross home plate.

Reasons for optimism: Don’t get too bogged down in the ugly small samples for the bats; this lineup has too many good hitters with good track records to expect this collective slump to last much longer. And beyond counting on some positive regression at the plate, the Mariners have to feel good about their work on the mound. Balancing out the pathetic offensive production is a pitching staff that ranks among baseball’s best, sitting third in ERA, second in WHIP and second in fWAR. The usual suspects (Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo) have been quite good, and the emergence of a new-look, high-whiff Emerson Hancock in place of the injured Bryce Miller has been promising as well.

There are also some encouraging performances within the broader offensive slog, including newcomer Brendan Donovan, who has struggled defensively at third base but has been as advertised as the new leadoff man. Also, 22-year-old second baseman Cole Young looks notably more comfortable on both sides of the ball, and he’ll likely be joined in the infield this summer by recently extended top prospect Colt Emerson. Zoom out further, and perhaps the biggest saving grace for Seattle is that its division is filled with flawed ballclubs, lessening the chance that any team surges too far ahead in the standings. Which brings us to …

Only 8% of the MLB season is in the books, but for these contenders, the 2026 campaign has not gotten off to a great start.

(Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports)

Houston Astros

Record: 6-7 (T-second in AL West)

What’s gone wrong: The Astros were just swept by the Rockies, who were swept 21 times last season en route to a staggering 119 losses. Weird things happen at Coors Field, and this year’s Colorado club is clearly more competent, but this was still a poor early showing for a Houston team eager to reestablish itself as a contender after missing the postseason last year for the first time since 2016.

The trouble for the Astros starts on the mound, where a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness has led to a ghastly 6.05 ERA, worst in MLB. Losing ace Hunter Brown to a shoulder strain is a brutal blow. His absence will force Houston to dip into its less-proven rotation depth, and those arms will need to step up sooner rather than later, particularly if the bullpen continues to scuffle.

Reasons for optimism: Yordan Alvarez is healthy and raking, a welcome sight. He’s back to being one of the most fearsome and productive hitters on the planet, as he was before his injury-ravaged 2025. Keeping him in the lineup every day will remain a delicate task, but he’s doing his part. And Alvarez is not alone in doing damage. Jose Altuve is reaping the benefits of his ABS-mandated smaller strike zone and isn’t far behind Alvarez atop the league-wide OBP leaderboard. Carlos Correa sure seems to be enjoying being an Astro again. Cam Smith is tracking for a resurgent sophomore season. Even Christian Walker, cast aside by many as a sunken cost on a bad contract, is raking.

Some of these hitters will cool off — well, Alvarez might not — but if the Astros can continue to look this formidable on offense, that should provide something of a cushion while the pitching staff looks to stabilize itself amid the injuries. A four-game set vs. Seattle this weekend could help clarify the state of affairs for both teams.

Chicago Cubs

Record: 6-6 (fifth in NL Central)

What’s gone wrong: The Cubs present an interesting contrast to the struggling AL West clubs, as their record doesn’t indicate an especially poor start, but their division looks to be notably more difficult than in prior seasons. Much of the preseason focus centered on how Chicago could topple the rival Brewers, but now Milwaukee doesn’t look like the only NL Central club the Cubs will have to overcome if they want to return to October.

The Reds rode stellar pitching to a postseason berth last year and might well do it again. The Pirates are significantly improved across the board, with a more respectable offense in place to support what could be a tremendous pitching staff. And while the Cardinals are in a transition of sorts as a franchise, they aren’t bereft of talent; they’ll be frisky, too. All together, while the standings don’t mean much in the second week of April, the Cubs sitting in last at .500 does seem reflective of a newly competitive NL Central.

There have been a few slow starters in the Chicago lineup (Alex Bregman, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong), but the most obvious concern is how the pitching will hold up following the crushing double-whammy of Cade Horton needing season-ending elbow surgery and Matthew Boyd landing on the injured list. A bullpen filled with mostly new faces has not looked remotely reliable in the innings leading up to closer and WBC hero Daniel Palencia. Until the offense heats up to keep the Cubs more competitive in higher-scoring games, a thinned-out rotation plus a shaky bullpen is an ominous recipe.

Reasons for optimism: While his fellow infielders have yet to start hitting, second baseman Nico Hoerner has been terrific in all facets, offering early validation for his six-year, $141 million extension signed just after Opening Day. Edward Cabrera has looked spectacular to begin his Cubs tenure, allowing just two hits across 11 ⅔ scoreless innings. Bregman’s surface-level stats don’t shine yet, but his elite approach is clearly intact: No qualified hitter has a lower chase rate than the new Cubs third baseman.

It’s also worth noting that a key ingredient to Chicago’s run-production efforts has yet to play this season: Seiya Suzuki, who is expected to be activated ahead of this weekend’s series against the Pirates after missing the first two weeks due to a sprained knee. Perhaps Suzuki’s return can help the Cubs’ lineup rediscover its more formidable form.

Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 5-7 (T-third in AL East)

What’s gone wrong: Vibes were good in Toronto after a sweep of the A’s to open the season, but the Blue Jays have since lost seven of nine games, including series losses to the Rockies and White Sox before getting largely outplayed in their World Series rematch with the Dodgers. We could spotlight some statistical laggards on the mound and at the plate, but the concerns here are more straightforward: This team is ridiculously injured.

The Blue Jays had a ton of talent on the shelf before the season even began (Anthony Santander, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios) and have since added several other key players to their injured list (Alejandro Kirk, Cody Ponce, Addison Barger), including one in Ponce who is likely done for the year following ACL surgery. With this amount of talent absent from the rotation and the lineup, it could be awfully challenging for this Blue Jays team to find a rhythm, let alone find worthwhile replacements for these important players, especially with a rather thin farm system in the upper levels. While there’s still ample star power at the top of Toronto’s roster, its depth is about to be tested in a serious way.

Reasons for optimism: Snapping a six-game losing streak and avoiding a sweep against the Dodgers on Wednesday had to be a huge relief for the Jays, even this early in the calendar. New frontline arm Dylan Cease provided another solid five innings, joining teammate Kevin Gausman atop the American League strikeout leaderboard with 26 punchouts across their first three outings. As Toronto scrambles to sort out the rest of its rotation — Yesavage should be back reasonably soon — there’s comfort in knowing those two anchors will give the team a good shot to win whenever they take the ball.

At the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still searching for his slugging stroke, but his underlying metrics look excellent as always, and the Blue Jays have to be encouraged by what Kazuma Okamoto and Jesús Sánchez have given them in their introduction to the lineup. As with Boston, the rest of the AL East isn’t going to wait around for the Blue Jays to catch up, but dismissing this team too quickly would be foolish, even with the avalanche of injuries.

San Francisco Giants

Record: 5-8 (fifth in NL West)

What’s gone wrong: The start to the Tony Vitello Era could not have gone worse, as the Giants were swept at home by the Yankees while scoring just one run across three games. The addition of Luis Arráez and a red-hot Matt Chapman have ensured the Giants don’t rank too poorly in the batting average department, but they lag far behind in nearly every other offensive category, including sitting last in MLB with a measly five home runs though their first 13 games (compare that to the Dodgers’ 21 long balls in 12 contests).

Only Seattle is averaging fewer runs per game than San Francisco, but the Mariners at least have a healthy dose of homers and walks, while the Giants’ power outage has been paired with a severe lack of free passes: Their 6.3% walk rate is the lowest mark in MLB. This combination of offensive characteristics is entirely untenable if the Giants are going to remain relevant in the NL postseason picture.

Reasons for optimism: Consecutive shutouts of the Phillies earlier this week — Robbie Ray and Tyler Mahle outdueling Cristopher Sánchez and Aaron Nola was a pleasant surprise for Giants fans — have seemed to put San Francisco back on track as it prepares to begin a nine-game road trip to Baltimore, Cincinnati and Washington.

Perhaps getting away is what this team — or more specifically, this offense — needs after playing 10 of the first 13 games at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, but that only amplifies the pressure on the high-profile hitters to start producing as they move to more offensive environments. On the flip side, the Giants seem to have the makings of a solid rotation coalescing behind ace Logan Webb  — Ray looks great, and don’t sleep on Landen Roupp — but they’re about to find out how well their pitching staff travels.