Way-too-early first-round rankings for 2026-2027 fantasy basketball

The 2025-26 regular season wrapped up on Sunday and my mind is already shifting to next year’s drafts. Before you call it obsessive, analysts are already drafting — and that’s exactly what we want. Debating how this season’s performances should shape next season’s decisions is part of the fun. So, before the NBA Playoffs, draft and free agency begin, let’s get an early jump on projecting the first round.

Here’s how my way-too-early top 10 is shaping up — and why.

1. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

Another year, another season averaging a triple-double. Jokić joined Russell Westbrook as the only players in NBA history to accomplish that feat in consecutive seasons. Another notable record was that Jokić was the first player in NBA history to lead the league in rebounds and assists in a season — ridiculous.

Though Jokić uncharacteristically missed 17 games this season, he finished the season as the top player in 9-cat and High Score on a per-game basis. Until he gives you a legitimate reason to doubt him, he remains your consensus first overall pick.

2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

After completing his third NBA season, Wemby is already the best defensive player in the league and on the shortlist for MVP. He improved his scoring, rebounding and FG% despite averaging fewer than 30 minutes per night. More impressively, he’s generated 4 stocks per game for the third consecutive season and showed his durability, playing in at least 65 games in two of his first three seasons. The two-way production is so tantalizing, I wouldn’t be mad at anyone taking Wemby at 1.01.

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

Career highs in field goal percentage (55.4%) and assists (6.4) to go with 31.1 points per game, and he’s shaping up to win back-to-back MVPs. SGA is the safest pick next to Jokic in the entire draft. Elite scoring, steals, efficiency, and he’s the engine for the best team in the NBA. You know exactly what you’re getting — a top-three asset in 9-cat and top-five in High Score.

4. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers

Dončić led the league in scoring at 33.5 points per game and had an absolutely absurd March — the first player to score 600 points in a calendar month since Michael Jordan in 1987. The hamstring injury that cost him the tail end of the regular season shouldn’t be an issue heading into next year, but it could be something worth monitoring. It’s also worth monitoring what LeBron James decides to do in free agency. Should Bron go elsewhere or retire, Luka’s ceiling goes even higher, making him every bit worthy of a top-four pick.

5. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

Cunningham was second in the NBA in assists (9.8) and averaged 24.2 points per game while leading Detroit to the best record in the Eastern Conference. As a guy who had a few Cunningham shares this year, Cade sustaining a collapsed lung in the heat of the fantasy playoffs was brutal. But that doesn’t discount how well he played throughout the season.

He was a second-round value in 9-cat and top-three in High Score. He could be the next point guard to average 20-10-5 in fantasy, while averaging over 2 stocks per game — that's more than enough counting stats to take him in the mid-first round.

6. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers

Maxey was an All-NBA player, leading the league in minutes played and closing the fantasy season fifth overall in 9-cat and sixth in High Score. The all-around growth for Maxey was evident, as he increased his value in 7 of 9 categories, including a significant boost on the defensive end, averaging 2.7 stocks per game (1.9 steals and 0.8 blocks, respectively). At 25 years old and the franchise clearly in his hands, Maxey’s trajectory is of the caliber of a top-five player across formats.

7. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks

The breakout is official. Johnson cemented himself as Atlanta’s offensive anchor in the post-Trae Young era. The five-year pro finished 18th overall in 9-cat and 7th in High Score this season. He was a nightly triple-double threat, ending the season top-seven in rebounds and top-five in assists per game. As with most players projected to be drafted in this area of the first round, there is some injury risk; however, it’s nothing that would prevent me from selecting him. The Hawks' revamped roster is exciting and offers plenty of fantasy value across positions for fantasy managers next season, beginning with Johnson.

8. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

Edwards played in at least 72 games in every season except for this one. A runner’s knee limited him to 61 games, but he continues to improve various aspects of his game, increasing his fantasy value. In terms of per-game pedigree, Edwards seldom sits among the rest of this crew. However, his superstar trajectory offers some ceiling expectations that haven’t been reached. Edwards had his best finish in 9-cat (14th) this year and ranked 17th in High Score, averaging 47.8 fantasy points per game. He posted nearly 29 ppg while shooting more efficiently from the field and added over 2 stocks per night. While he certainly is an aesthetically pleasing rising star, I’m confident he has the counting stats and the efficiency potential on both ends to warrant being a top-10 selection next year.

9. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

After missing most of the year and not returning until March, Tatum quickly re-established himself, ranking 26th in 9-cat and 19th in High Score over that stretch. What stands out most is that he averaged 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists in 32.6 minutes per game — a workload that suggests little restriction, defying expectations that he’d be brought along slowly. A strong postseason run would further indicate he’s on track to regain his first-round form. Even though he shot just 41% from the field and 32% from three in that 16-game stretch (well below his career averages), those numbers should rebound with more time and confidence. Assuming he stays healthy, there’s a strong case for Tatum to rejoin the elite fantasy tier next season.

10. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis averaged 27.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.6 stocks — a down year by his standards. His value would take a bigger hit if he stays in Milwaukee, but he’s likely to be traded, which should improve his outlook. He turns 32 in December and has some injury risk (recurring calf issues), but the production floor remains high.

He’s a top-five pick in points leagues and top-10 in 9-cat, with a floor of 27-10-5 per night, though you’ll likely need to punt a category.