2026 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: Matt’s Pref List

The last instalment in the Top 40 series on this off-day is my list of prospects I was somewhat higher on and would have either had on or in the mix for the back of my list alone. As Tom noted on his list, these are deep(er) sleepers, generally low probability, but usually they’re be a name or two who pops up the list the next year (like Gage Stanifer had I got around to publishing a list last year, alas).

Nolan Perry was the Jays’ 12th rounder in 2022 out of high school in New Mexico, signed for a $200,000 (of which just $75,000 counted against the pool). I’m always intrigued by this type of draftee (player strongly motivated to pro ball over college, upside at a modest opportunity cost), so he’s been a name to follow for me. He had an uneven 2023 on the complex (7.28 ERA but 51 strikeouts in 38.1 innings), and got the bump to Dunedin early in 2024 to backfill the rotation spot when Landon Maroudis was injured and there was a chance to see him.

His 14 starts would best be characterized as effectively wild, with a 2.93 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 46 innings, but 39 free passes. Many outings he’d had dominant stretches and then an inning would suddenly go sideways. The stuff was quite promising, his fastball up to the mid-90s and the ability to spin two breaking balls that drew swings-and-misses. He mixed in a odd show-me changeup, but it and the command/control lagged as Perry largely “out-stuffed” low-A hitters. Then he too required Tommy John, missing 2025.

In two starts so far in 2026, the stuff is clearly back and that alone would likely have put him on the main list. Barring major steps forward in the control, he probably ends up short reliever, but with some higher end possibility.

Daniel Guerra was an 18 year old international free agent out of Venezuela in 2022, and slowly moving rung-by-ring to reach high-A in now his 5th season. He’s a big guy at a listed 6’6” and 230 pounds, and his fastball touches the mid-90s (sitting low-90s in longer outings) with a decent slider. There’s no viable third pitch, and command/control can be iffy, so this would be purely a relief projection. But if the velo ticks up in short outings, he could be viable as a middle reliver.

If there’s a guy I can’t quit, it’s 2022 2nd rounder Cade Doughty. It’s been an interesting progression for what was considered a power-over-hit, bat-first infielder out of LSU. To that end, in 2023 he slugged 18 homeruns in Vancouver but struck out 30% of the time. Then he was on-and-off the IL in 2024 in what largely ended up a lost season. In 2025 at AA, e cut the strikeout rate back to 22% but the power evaporated (4 HR and .085 ISO). He was also pressed into service at shortstop and while certainly not gifted was surprisingly decent. It’s probably time to move on, but if he can get some of the power back….

The Jays’ Mr. Irrelevant (20th rounder) in the 2023 Draft, Kai Peterson’s strikeout rate proved to be anything but. Using almost exclusively low-90s fastballs from a very low sidearm slot (he should be nicknamed SLingshot for the way he literally would sling fastball after fastball after fastball), Peterson ate up low-A hitters in posting comical peripherals (18 K/9 with almost a walk and inning; 60% of batters striking out or walking). He kept up a ~30% strikeout rate in high-A and AA but struggles to throw enough strikes for basic viability and more experienced hitters had had (more) success laying out to let him beat him himself. He’s increasingly mixed in a sweeping slider, but controlling it is even more of an issue. It’s probably too much to overcome, especially in a post-LOOGY world, but he’s enough of a funky lefty that it wouldn’t surprise me if made the majors at some point.

Carson Pierce was an undrafted FA in 2023 from Oklahoma. While most of the stuff is just okay and unremarkable, he’s got a heck of an offspeed weapon in his change-up that just dives down to the arm side. With a ton of vertical break, it piles up swings and misses and moved him quickly up to Vancouver where he had a very effective run as a bulk/piggyback reliever before leaving a start with an obviously significant arm injury that caused him to miss 2023. Pierce is effectively a one trick pony. but a heck of a trick representing a potential carrying tool.

In the same vein of one-trick offspeed pitch, I’ll at least mention Nate Garkow, 5’11” 28 year old signed two years ago who tops out in the high-80s on his fastball. What makes him effective (1.22 ERA for New Hampshire last year) is this super low-spin screwball that almost knuckles. It’s so befuddling that it vexed not just hitters, but flummoxed tracking systems into labelling it a slider for most of last year. Is it enough to get him the majors? Probably not, but worth keeping an eye on and it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Jackson Hornung was drafted as a catcher in 2023’s 16th round out of D-III Skidmore College in upstate New York. His work behind the plate could charitably de described as very rough, and by the beginning of last year he was moved out to a first base/outfield/DH mix. Frankly, his best position by far is at the plate, where he has a god feel for squaring balls up and driving them for some power (.287/.367/.452 split in Vancouver and NH). There’s a fair bit of swing-and-miss and given the heavy pressure on the bat that’s probably too much to overcome, but if more power comes through there’s potentially something in the bat.