The Cubs are experiencing a notable stretch with a five-game winning streak, but their current performance isn't as strong as past championship teams. Historical comparisons reveal that while they are winning, they still face challenges in the competitive landscape of the National League.
Key points
Cubs are on a five-game winning streak.
Current win pace is 104.8 wins through 34 games.
Historical Cubs teams had higher win totals over 100 years ago.
Cubs need to outperform other NL teams for a chance at the championship.
2016 Cubs are considered the best team in recent memory.
CubsNLCS
This has been one of the more remarkable stretches in Cub history. Though I often try to put things into the bigger picture context here, Iâll let John and Al write about the historically significant winning streaks and periods in Cub history. Obviously, a team that has 150 years of existence has so much history that itâs hard to find too many firsts, other than when they relate to ways in which the game has evolved through the years. But clearly, a five-game winning streak isnât even the longest this year. 15 of 18 doesnât hold a candle to a streak of 21 straight wins the team had nearly a century ago and even 11 straight home wins happened less than 20 years ago.
This is a different kind of remarkable. This one is different because in this modern era of sports, we see so much information under the hood. We see the numbers, the projections, the history, the injuries. Win total projections arenât the stuff of throwing at a dart board. We know that this isnât the best Cub team in our lifetime. Again with the history, even the 104.8 win pace this team is on through 34 games wouldnât lead to any records. The Cubs have two 104 win seasons (in 154 and 155 game seasons) and 107 and 116 win seasons (in 155 games each). But all four of those teams were over 100 years ago. The Cubs were really good from 1906-1010. The 2016 Cubs won 103.
This team isnât as good or better than that team. We know that. We also know that even over 10 years, comparisons have some amount of apples to oranges. The simplest math is that this team doesnât have to be better than the 2016 Cubs or any of the championship teams that have occurred between then and now. This team, ultimately, needs to be better than 14 other National League teams by the end of the NLCS and, should they accomplish that, one American League team. Iâm enough pro-Cub that some might identify me a bit of a homer. Thereâs probably at least some truth in that. Though I will turn on this team in years where they start taking on water. I say that, because even as someone who might be a little biased, not in my wildest dream did I think Iâd be even entertaining a conversation about a championship team.
Thatâs the thing, right? First of all, we are all in a long-term, abusive relationship with the Cubs. We have decades of experience saying that all good things must come to an end. The inertia of that is so true that it crushed a 2003 team that looked poised to reach the Series. Several other very good incarnations of the Cubs didnât even get as close as that team, including multiple times since 2016. If youâre listening to the Lovable Reunion Podcast, one of their (very deep) observations is that winning championships is hard. That â16 team was the best Cub team any of us have seen, I think. The only one to win it all in any of our lifetimes. And even that team had scares in every round of the postseason. There was no round where they just walked over an opponent.
Q&A
What is the significance of the Cubs' current five-game winning streak?
The five-game winning streak is notable in the context of Cubs history, but it is not their longest this season or in history.
How does the Cubs' current win pace compare to their historical performance?
The Cubs are on a 104.8 win pace through 34 games, which is impressive but not as strong as their historical seasons, including two over 104 wins in the early 1900s.
What challenges do the Cubs face in the National League this season?
The Cubs need to outperform 14 other National League teams to reach the NLCS and ultimately one American League team to win the championship.
How does the 2016 Cubs team compare to the current team?
The current Cubs team is not considered as strong as the 2016 championship team, which is often regarded as the best in recent memory.
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You have to be very good and you have to catch a few breaks. So thatâs the second thing. The best team doesnât necessarily win every year, right? I mean, probably arguably the Dodgers were the last two years. I think they were probably the consensus best team in 2024. That consensus might have been slightly less in 2025, at least in part because they do some amount of coasting up until the playoffs start. But were they at least a little arguably the best team in 2023 when they didnât win?
Can you honestly say that this team canât win? Thatâs the oddity of this. Take those last two paragraphs together. Are we afraid of the rug being pulled out from under us and this team crashing back down to the Earth in spectacular fashion? Yeah, weâre conditioned to. How many times in our lifetime did a team that wasnât the best team, but rather a good team that got hot at the right time, went on to win it all? Some of you are much better historians of the wider MLB than I. But off the top of my head, I remember a Cardinals team that barely got in. I also remember a White Sox team that absolutely steamrolled the playoffs but I donât remember many outside of Chicago crowing before the postseason started.
Why not us? Iâm trying to both stay realistic and enjoy this ride. I encourage you to do so as well. We know what this team was supposed to be capable of. For whatever reason, despite a large number of early injuries, this team has been red hot for three weeks now. The hitting, the running, the fielding and the pitching. They are all carrying weight. Not necessarily every single day. But on any given day two or three areas of this team are carrying the team and carrying it to victory much more often than not, so far. This is so much fun.
Michael Busch needed this whole weekend. Things had been pretty rough until this weekend, but heâs had a big few days. On Sunday, he had a double, a triple, drove in four runs and scored a fifth. He too drew a walk and he also had a sacrifice fly. Thatâs a lot of productive plate appearances.
The Cubs offense as a whole posted a wRC+ of 184 for this game. So there were so many guys who could land here. But Iâll give the nod to Matthew Boyd. A nice bounceback game allowing two runs over six for another quality Cub start.
*Diamondbacks Play of the Game: Gabriel Moreno batted with a runner on second and two outs in the second, the game scoreless. He hit a two-run homer to start the scoring. (.192)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll: Ballesteros, Busch, Boyd, Hoerner (other)
Game 33 Winner: ShĆta Imanaga received 142 of 212 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings:(Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Up Next: The second place Cincinnati Reds (20-14) come to town to start a four game series on Monday night. The Reds got swept by the Pirates over the weekend. Theyâve started a stretch of 13 straight games by dropping four of six. Theyâve lost six of 10 overall, and their expected win-loss is only 15-19 due to their negative run differential. They have been unbeatable in close games, but pretty average otherwise. They are 10-6 away from home, but just 1-5 against teams over .500 (the Cubs are 4-5).
Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.06, 35.1 IP) makes his seventh start of the year for the Cubs. Last time out, he was the winner, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings of work. Glass half empty/glass half full. Cabrera has allowed exactly three earned runs in each of his last four starts. But heâs not allowed more than that in any start. He did have a start against the Reds last April when he allowed three runs over five innings, but so many things are different now.
It looks like Chase Petty will start for the Reds. Petty worked briefly for the Reds last year (0-3, 19.50, 6 IP, 3 G, 2 GS). He is a former 26th overall pick of the Twins in the 2021 draft. This spot in the rotation had belonged to Brandon Williamson, who has gone to the injured list. Petty is 2-2 with a 4.38 in six starts for Triple-A Louisville in the Reds organization.
This feels like an opportunity to keep the good time rolling. Win number six for an even dozen straight at home!