2026 Kentucky Derby sleepers, odds, free advice, top contenders: Three best longshot picks at Churchill Downs

Emerging Market (15-1)

Emerging Market, trained by Chad Brown, is the least seasoned horse in the Kentucky Derby, having only raced twice. But Emerging Market is 2 for 2 with Beyer Speed Figures of 90 or above each time. The last horse to race only twice before the Derby but go on to win was Leonatus back in 1883, so there are certainly obstacles to overcome.

However, having veteran jockey Flavien Prat in the saddle is a significant plus. In 16 Triple Crown starts, Prat has finished outside the superfecta only once. It is also worth noting that Prat chose this mount over Commandment, one of the top two favorites, which speaks volumes about his confidence in Emerging Market. This horse is a live longshot with tons of upside on Saturday. You can bet Emerging Market at FanDuel Racing now, where new users can bet $5 and get a $25 racing bonus:

Potente (20-1)

An upset win by Potente on Saturday would give trainer Bob Baffert the most Kentucky Derby victories of all time with seven. The colt was purchased for a staggering $2.4 million in August 2024, so the expectations have always been high. His Beyer Speed Figures have increased from 79 to 89 to 95, which is an encouraging trend heading into the biggest race of the year.

Potente was somewhat disappointing as the 6-5 favorite in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing second behind fellow Derby entrant So Happy. But it is tough to count out Baffert's success in this race, as few trainers in history have been more dangerous when they show up at Churchill Downs. You can bet on Potente at 1/ST BET and get a special $500 sign up bonus with the promo code 500BET:

Danon Bourbon (20-1)

No horse from Japan has ever won the Kentucky Derby, though Forever Young came extremely close two years ago. This Kentucky-bred star sold for $450,000 in April 2024 at auction and has lived up to expectations despite racing across the world. He has won all three of his starts by margins of 10, 5 and 3.5 lengths, and he will be making his first start going left-handed. With a large price on race day, he is worth including in a five-horse trifecta box. You can bet Danon Bourbon now at TwinSpires and get an exclusive $400 sign-up bonus for the 2026 Kentucky Derby with the offer code CBSSPORTS, double what's available to the general public:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets:

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which stunning longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.

SportsLine also hasKentucky Derby 2026 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who had $1,045 win last year and SportsLine racing analyst Michelle Yu, who hit the exacta in last year's Kentucky Derby, offers her picks, wagers and analysis for the first leg of the Triple Crown.