2026 Kentucky Derby: Weather in Louisville not expected to be a factor during race

There’s only one thing that can put a damper on the Kentucky Derby: Bad weather. Rain and frigid temperatures can create issues during the race, perhaps leading to unexpected results on the track.

But those issues aren’t expected to play a role when the horses get into position during the 2026 Kentucky Derby. While temperatures will be lower than normal in the morning and rain could crop up in the afternoon, things are supposed to be all clear by the time of the race.

Temperatures in Louisville will start out in the 40s early in the day, but will steadily rise to about 58 degrees around 6:57 p.m. ET, when the race is scheduled to start. While that shouldn’t present an issue, that’s a colder temperature than normal for May in Louisville. The average temperature during the Kentucky Derby is closer to 74 degrees, per Kentucky.com.

There is a chance of 32 percent chance of rain Saturday, but it’s expected to occur at 2 p.m. ET, several hours before the race, making it essentially a non-issue. It’s expected to be mostly cloudy throughout the day, including at race time.

Rain isn’t an uncommon occurrence on race day. In the history of the Kentucky Derby, which will run for the 152nd time Saturday, rain has fallen on race day over 70 times, per Kentucky.com.

The amount of rainfall on race day doesn’t always affect the event. That wasn’t the case in 2018, when an exceptionally rainy day muddied up the track as the horses got into their posts. The bad weather wasn’t enough to stop Justify, the favorite back, from winning the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

With a far rosier forecast expected Saturday, it’s anyone’s race. Renegade, which is running out of the first post, is the favorite for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, but that isn’t always a good thing, as it’s been a few years since the favorite won the event.