2026 NBA playoff X-factors: The players who can swing a series on every team

Jalen Williams is back, but something is off. Last year Williams took a career-high 29% of his shots from 3, averaging nearly five attempts per game and making 37% of them. That evolution — from midrange specialist to genuine perimeter threat — was one of the reasons Oklahoma City won the championship. Defenses couldn't sag off him anymore. But this season he made only 29.9% of his 3s with under 17.3% of his shots coming from behind the line. He has retreated inside the arc. Even his midrange jumper isn’t falling as often at 41% down from 46% last year and 49% the year prior. He is not the same player who helped close out the Finals.

Some of this is almost certainly the injuries. Williams dealt with a procedure in the offseason on his shooting wrist and then two hamstring strains that cost him most of the second half of the season. That kind of lower-body damage affects a shooter's base, his lift, the trust he puts into his legs when he rises up.

But at some point, OKC will need the version we saw last year. And if they don’t get it, then Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, or Isaiah Joe better be ready to step up in the backcourt.

2. San Antonio Spurs

X-factor: Dylan Harper

The Spurs have a lot of X-factors on their team. Luke Kornet could come in and play in two-big lineups next to Wemby. Stephon Castle can seemingly drop a 40-point triple double any night. Carter Bryant is a secret Swiss Army Knife that comes off the bench. Julian Champagnie is inevitably gonna have the Julian Champagnie game. And then there's Dylan Harper, who just turned 20 and at 6-foot-5 clearly has superstar potential when you watch him power his way into the paint for layups inside. He’s so crafty in the paint, and so strong as a ball-handler, there’s really nothing you can do.

The reason I’ve argued since pre-draft that I preferred Kon Knueppel for the Spurs is because of his elite shooting compared to Harper’s shaky shooting. Well, as of late Harper is elite at shooting. Over his last 32 games, he shot 45.6% from 3, and granted it was on a low volume, it’s an incredibly impressive development for him. His shot looks fluid, and he’s even shooting a better percentage from the line and from midrange too.

So all indicators are looking positive for Harper, which is what makes him the X-factor: Wemby was a 29 minute per game guy during the season. He didn't play over 40 minutes once. Who's going to help fill the gaps when Wemby is on the bench? A lot of the time, it’s going to have to be Harper. And he looks capable.

3. Denver Nuggets

X-factor: Cam Johnson

After Cam Johnson went 0-for-6 against the Wolves in early March, he said this: “Just feeling a little stuck. … Every time that I felt down … every time that's happened, I've been able to turn it around in some way, somehow.”

At the time, the Nikola Jokić/Cam Johnson dribble handoff combo was producing just 0.84 points per handoff, worst on the team. Jokić runs one of the best dribble-handoff operations in basketball history. But Johnson couldn’t get going.

Since then? 1.16 points per handoff for the duo. Second to only Jamal Murray. It’s working. Johnson has fixed himself just as he predicted he would. And if this continues, he could swing a game and a series. If he starts struggling again? Welp, this Nuggets run may not last long.

4. Los Angeles Lakers

X-factor: Deandre Ayton

The true X-factor in Los Angeles is the health of their best player: Luka Dončić. Without him, the Lakers could get bounced by the Rockets with ease. With him, they have the upside to beat anyone. A Grade 2 hamstring typically requires three-to-six weeks of recovery, but Luka flew to Europe for specialized treatment to try to make it back for the playoffs. That treatment working is really all that matters for LA's deep playoff hopes.

But if Dončić is unable to return during the first round, the key to the Lakers getting through the Rockets could be their defense with Ayton at the center of it. JJ Redick has leaned heavily on zone defense as of late, and it has worked. The Lakers have run the fourth-most zone defense in the league and allowed opponents to post only a 104.5 offensive rating, the best of the 21 teams to log at least 100 zone plays.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have posted the ninth-worst offensive rating against zone defense this season. If Ayton can anchor this Los Angeles defense, while also using his size to score scrappy points in the paint on offense, the Lakers might be able to sneak past Houston, giving Dončić and Austin Reaves enough time to recover before the second round.

5. Houston Rockets

X-factor: Reed Sheppard

Ever since Sheppard got inserted into Houston’s starting lineup he’s averaging 15.5 points on 41% from 3 on 8.5 attempts. He’s the highest-volume 3-point shooter on the team. And he’s averaging double the assists to turnovers with 4.3 assists to only two turnovers. The Rockets need his shooting to space the floor, especially against a Lakers team that will be playing a lot of zone.

To go deep into the playoffs, the Rockets will need Sheppard to catch fire and win a game or two though. He's hit 30 twice this year. Can he hit 35? Can he hit 40? Houston's offense might need it.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

X-factor: Kyle Anderson

Anderson is 32 years old. He’s even slower now than he was when he entered the NBA with the nickname of Slow Mo. He averages 4.6 points. On paper, he doesn’t seem all that important as a castaway acquired by the Timberwolves before the trade deadline. Until you look at what happens when he plays center.

Minnesota has a 110.2 defensive rating with Rudy Gobert on the floor. Without Gobert, that number balloons to 119.8. That has been an issue for years since the bench frontcourt of Naz Reid and Julius Randle struggles. But in the minutes without Gobert and with Anderson at center, the Wolves have posted a 107.1 defensive rating. It’s a sample of a hair under 200 minutes, but the results have been consistent enough to notice.

Especially when the Wolves were able to mount a historic comeback against Houston. Gobert fouled out with nine seconds left so Anderson had to play all of overtime, and Minnesota was able to be aggressive with traps and switches, helping off Amen Thompson and sending two at Kevin Durant. The Wolves have blitzed more, and they’re sending way more switches with Anderson.

The Wolves switch 36% of screens when Anderson is on the floor. Up from 15% when Gobert is out there without Anderson. With Anderson at the 5, Minnesota has a connected, switchable frontcourt that keeps the defense intact.

Anderson is Minnesota’s X-factor because there’s no guarantee this translates to the playoffs. He is a 15-minute per game older guy after all. But the fact Minnesota has a functional answer when Gobert sits increases their odds of making a run.

7. Portland Trail Blazers

X-factor: Deni Avdija

Avdija is the best player on the Blazers. But he’s also their X-factor. The Spurs are better than anyone at preventing opponents from getting into the paint. Well, that is precisely what Avidja excels at. In Portland’s three games against San Antonio this year, Victor Wembanyama played in none of them. But a worrisome stat for the Blazers is how Avdija has performed against similarly dominant interior defenders.

Avdija posted a 52.1% effective field goal percentage in all games this season. But when Rudy Gobert or Chet Holmgren were on defense, that number was just 35%. On drives to the basket, the Blazers scored 1.06 points per drive by Avdija on the year. But with Rudy or Chet out there, that number fell to 0.94.

The presence of Wemby will turn Deni into more of a playmaker. If he can find openings to score inside, while also spraying the ball around to shooters, maybe Portland can make this a series. But the Blazers were 28th in 3-point percentage on the year. Odds are, the series will simply be a lesson in how far they must go.

8. Phoenix Suns or Golden State Warriors

Suns X-factor: Jalen Green

There is a version of Jalen Green that is a genuine co-star next to Devin Booker — the guy we saw score 36 vs. Indiana and 34 vs. Toronto on back-to-back nights — and there is a version of him that is an expensive, inefficient volume shot-chucker — like the guy who went 3-for-17 vs. Minnesota. So, the star or the bust … which one shows up?

Warriors X-factor: Kristaps Porziņģis

Steph Curry is back, but Steph alone can’t pull off a miracle in a first-round matchup against OKC. He’ll need some help. Which makes Golden State’s X-factor: Porziņģis. At 7-2, Porziņģis offers something no other Warriors big man does: the combination of a credible post threat and floor-stretching range that forces defenses into impossible decisions alongside Curry. They’ve barely played together though. And there’s no guarantee that KP can even stay on the floor.

Porziņģis missed time with illness and the conditioning issues because of what he says is POTS, a chronic condition that affects blood flow and heart rate. He thinks the issues have been resolved though and has played in every game to close the season without any apparent problems.

If he can stay on the floor, maybe the Warriors can win a game in a series. But more importantly for the long term, he needs to fit. And thus far he has not expressed much enthusiasm over staying in Golden State for the long term.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Detroit Pistons

X-factor: Daniss Jenkins

When Cade Cunningham suffered a collapsed lung, I wondered if they’d blow the 1-seed. But Cade’s time off might’ve been a blessing in disguise. It forced Jalen Duren into a heavier offensive load, so we got to see him reach a new level. And Jenkins got moved into the starting lineup, and he was awesome.

Jenkins averaged 19 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists as a starter before Cade’s return. Two of his best games came against playoff teams: 30 and 8 against the Lakers, 26 and 8 against the Wolves. Detroit doesn’t need Jenkins to be Cade, but the fact he can get so hot and provide a spark on a larger volume shows he can help win a game and a series if the moment demands it.

2. Boston Celtics

X-factor: Neemias Queta

The Celtics lost Porziņģis, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Jrue Holiday, and Jayson Tatum. They were supposed to be cooked. Instead, they’re contenders because they’ve answered every big question, such as: What happens at the center spot? The answer: Queta.

What Queta does on offense is what the Celtics need a center to do: screen, roll, catch in traffic, and finish. And Queta does every single one of those things at a high level, scoring 1.2 points out of ball screens. Off-ball, Queta’s screening is integral to springing open shooters. Queta has also anchored Boston’s defense with chasedown blocks on the break, active help defense, and quick feet on the perimeter.

The Celtics are posting an elite 108.8 defensive rating with Queta on the floor. But not without him at 117.5. After averaging 25 minutes per game, will he need to play 30? Boston will need to slow down a ton of bigs in the playoffs and more sophisticated gameplans to make a deep run. The Celtics will always score no matter who’s on the floor, but there’s no one on the bench who can defend the way he can. If Queta keeps excelling, Boston is a championship team.

3. New York Knicks

X-factor: Karl-Anthony Towns

The question that has followed Towns his entire career is whether his game translates to the playoffs. Especially on defense. One game that is gonna stick in my mind came in a Knicks win over the Grizzlies in early April. New York led by 17 points at halftime, then Memphis started hunting KAT every single possession. After Memphis scored points off a lob dunk, an isolation, a spot-up triple, and then a one-on-one 3 in his face, Towns got pulled.

If KAT’s getting exposed by a tanking Grizzlies team … what’s gonna happen in the playoffs? That’s what makes him the X-factor. If he’s locked in, playing strong defense, the Knicks have a chance. If not, they won’t last long.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

X-factor: Evan Mobley

Donovan Mitchell and James Harden will provide the majority of scoring for Cleveland. But we all know how streaky Harden is. There will come a day that the Cavs will need scoring from elsewhere. One night, it might be a big shooting night from Max Strus or Dean Wade. Another night, it’ll have to be Mobley.

This season, Mobley shot 30% on catch-and-shoot 3s, 28% on dribble-jumper 3s, and 37% on pull-up 2-pointers. He ranked in the 25th percentile in spot-up situations, the 40th percentile out of pick-and-rolls, and the 64th percentile on post-ups. The Cavaliers will probably have no issues disposing of the Raptors in the first round, but in Round 2 against the Pistons and beyond, Mobley has to be better.

5. Toronto Raptors

X-factor: Immanuel Quickley

Quickley is all beat up. He missed time with plantar fasciitis. He didn’t look quite like himself after his return in April. Now he has a right hamstring strain. But the Raptors need him to keep up with the Cavaliers. In 70 games this year, he averaged 16.4 points per game and shot 37.4% from 3 while displaying dynamic scoring talent with and without the ball in his hands.

If Quickley isn’t able to produce, this will be a quick series. And if he doesn't, it'll raise more questions about his ability at only 6-2 and 190 pounds to both stay durable and produce in April. He's played in the playoffs twice — both times with the Knicks — and in each opportunity his scoring efficiency numbers fell off a cliff. Time to prove he can produce on the biggest stage.

6. Atlanta Hawks

X-factor: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Alexander-Walker is Atlanta’s X-factor because to make a deep run the Hawks will need a superstar perimeter presence. And as of late, he’s looking like one. He averaged nearly 25 points on 50/40/90 from the field over his last six weeks — up from 19.8 points per game previously. He’s excelling at all his usual things as an elite shooter off the catch who can attack closeouts and get into the paint. But his on-ball usage is up now too.

Atlanta started feeding Alexander-Walker more pick-and-rolls and running him through more dribble-handoff actions with the intent to get the ball in his hands. And it’s working. Better than it ever has. He’s getting into the paint on self-created drives to the rim, and scoring with his off-hand. He looks effortless getting into his pull-up. Everything looks easy. And if this continues, who knows how far the Hawks could go.

7. Philadelphia 76ers

X-factor: Quentin Grimes

Joel Embiid will miss the start of if not the entire first-round series against the Celtics because of surgery on his appendix. So odds are Philadelphia’s season is over. But if the Sixers hang on, and if Embiid comes back, it’s gonna be because they replenished his scoring elsewhere. Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and VJ Edgecombe will handle most of that. But there needs to be another guy. There will need to be a Quentin Grimes Game. He goes through stretches where he scores 28, 31, 25, and 27 points, taking 20 shots a game, looking like an aggressive on ball-scoring star. Then he’ll have games where he scores zero on only four shots, and five points on seven shots. It’s puzzling. If the Sixers get a good version of Grimes, maybe he can be the X-factor that swings a game or two their way.

8. Orlando Magic or Charlotte Hornets

Magic X-factor: Franz Wagner

What a waste of a season in Orlando. They gave up five firsts for Desmond Bane yet stayed in the bottom 10 in both 3-point attempts and percentage. Paolo Banchero didn’t get better — if anything he got worse. And Franz Wagner had another injury-riddled season, appearing in less than half the games. But it’s not a coincidence they rattled off a win streak as soon as he returned. That’s what makes him the X-factor: The Magic won’t go anywhere without his downhill attacking, connective passing, and versatile defense. With him, they can at least compete.

Hornets X-factor: Moussa Diabaté

Nobody ever talks about Diabaté. He’s unbelievable as a defensive player: 31 bigs have defended at least 1,000 pick-and-rolls, Moussa has switched on 30% of those. That’s the second-most in the NBA behind only Bam Adebayo. He’s able to switch on the guards, he’s able to switch onto forwards. He has a number of chase-down blocks. He’s always hustling in the passing lanes. He’s running hard up the floor in transition. And his production will be one of the keys to the Hornets being a real threat in the East. Which makes him their X-factor. Because the Hornets just don’t score. They defend too. And Moussa is a huge part of that.