The NBA play-in tournament is in its sixth year, featuring head-to-head matchups for the 7th and 8th seeds. Betting trends show a consistent preference for unders on game totals, with the 9th and 10th seeds yet to make the playoffs.
We are now in the sixth year of the NBA play-in tournament.
To refresh everyone, the 7th and 8th seed in each conference based on the regular season will play one game head to head to secure the overall No.7 seed. The 9th- and 10th-placed teams will play a winner-take-all game for the chance to jump into the 8th seed ā where the loser of the 7 vs. 8 matchup will try and hold onto their spot.
It is a mini tournament where every game holds major implications. Thus far since the inception of the play-in tournament, betting unders on game totals has been very sharp. Also, the 9 and 10 seeds have never cracked into the playoffs.
The play-in games will be Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. Here are some best bets worth placing now.
The Hornets had an abysmal start to the 2025-26 NBA season ā starting 4-14 in their first 18 games and playing catch up the rest of the season. But catch up they did. Charlotte boasted one of the best net ratings in the NBA after that point and finished with the fifth best net rating using full-season numbers. This is a young team that developed a lot under a second-year head coach and very young core, so I think it is safe to evaluate them based on the better version of themselves and basically scrap the early-season woes.
Meanwhile, the Heat were quite the opposite ā getting out to a blistering start and then completely falling off. In the final 60 games of the regular season, the Heat were 29-31. The narrative of this Miami team is being held up by its previous playoff runs and strong coaching system under Eric Spoelstra. However, in a season-ending interview, Erik Spoelstra admitted to simply not figuring it out this season with this group.
Net Rating gap would indicate this should be a Hornets -7.4 line. My model suggests Hornets -5 before giving a boosted home court rating up to close to -6. With the market hanging a -5.5 consensus price and the early market side being the Hornets, the best way to still play this and biggest edge is the moneyline.
The spread opened Hornets -5 and moved to -5.5, and the moneyline still floats in a range between the two numbers. The expected moneyline on a -5.5 spread with standard sportsbook cut (also called hold) is -227. Playing the moneyline below -227 is the best way to play this. I am fine with -5.5 (-110), but the moneyline provides a slight discount in terms of value. Yes, higher vig can sometimes still be a more valuable line!
Bet: Hornets ML -210
I never bet on trends. I donāt look them up or find them valuable. A player going over his points prop in nine of his last 10 game isnāt as a reason to take the points prop in game 11. In most cases with trends, I wish I had a time machine to go back in time and bet on the trend when it started. However, I do really like to recognize patterns and trends of what happens in the betting market. Not results based, but process based! For the NBA play-in tournament, the pattern is action on game total unders.
In the last two years, in the 12 play-in tournament games that have happened, 11 of them have had game totals move down from opening line to closing line ā and only once has the total gone up. In the 11 games that have had line movement down, the moves on average are much larger than a single point. We have common examples of 3-4 points, with one game having nine points of line movement!
Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our betting hub
When looking at Blazers-Suns odds, this shapes up to be a clear under play as well. The Suns just saw Grayson Allen hurt his hamstring in a meaningless game to end the season on Friday. He will likely be out for this game, which removes spacing and shooting from the Suns rotation. The Blazers are the third-worst NBA team in 3-point percentage, only in front of the Kings and Nets. They rely on getting to the free throw line to boost their point totals, and the play-in game whistles will be less friendly to them.
We have already seen this total drop from 219.5 down to 217.5, indicating the under is the sharper side thus far, and I expect to see another couple points of movement. I wouldnāt be surprised to see this close at 215.5 or lower.
In these play-in games, the pressure is high, the pace slows, possession totals and efficiency drop and scoring can flat line. Bet the under here quickly to beat the market and have an edge, before the number gets too low to still chase it.
Bet: Suns-Blazers under 217.5
The 7th and 8th seeds play a single game for the No. 7 seed, while the 9th and 10th seeds compete in a winner-take-all game for the chance to secure the 8th seed.
Betting unders on game totals has been a sharp trend since the tournament's inception.
The play-in games are scheduled for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday.
No, the 9th and 10th seeds have never advanced to the playoffs since the play-in tournament began.
LIV Golf's future appears uncertain as reports suggest Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund may withdraw funding after investing $5 billion. Despite assurances for the 2026 season, the tour faces challenges from low ratings and strong competition from the PGA Tour.
Mike Trout's 446-foot HR joins him with Aaron Judge in Yankee Stadium lore.
Detroit Tigers projected to take a risk on a 6'3" prep bat in the MLB draft.
Arshdeep Singh makes history as the first PBKS bowler to reach 100 IPL wickets!
California's top high school football prospects are on the move this weekend.
Viktor Hovland shines with a 64 at RBC Heritage, Gotterup scores 70.
See every story in Sports ā including breaking news and analysis.