2026 NFL Draft QB Preview: Fantasy football outlook for Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson, more in shallow class

With less than two weeks until the 2026 NFL Draft, Yahoo analyst Joel Smyth breaks down the QB class for fantasy football. With several teams looking for hope this offseason, who are the college quarterbacks that can provide fantasy value while boosting the stock of others?

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Measureables: 6’4 3/4”, 236 lbs

Projected Draft Pick: 1st Overall Selection

It is all but official that Fernando Mendoza will be the Raiders’ first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. After transferring from California to Indiana for the 2025 season, Mendoza’s potential turned into production with a remarkable 10.8% touchdown rate per attempt on his way to a 16-0 National Championship season. The No. 1 strength of Mendoza is the intangibles. The numbers don’t always pop off the page, but on top of being labeled a winner, Mendoza has constantly come up in the biggest moments when his team needed him.

Outside of the “It Factor”, the efficiency numbers continue to stand out. He averages 9.3 yards per pass attempt with a 72% completion rate and 7% off-target rate to add to his touchdown rate. Even the rushing ability is above average.

One of Fernando Mendoza’s best reads/throws of the year. Does an outstanding job of reading post snap rotations and finding answers. pic.twitter.com/XQW4xZxFd6

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) March 17, 2026

Most of the outlook has been positive, but there are some red flags, especially when comparing to past top QB prospects. The dominant season came alongside a dominant team, which could cause doubt in his individual impact. For a Heisman winner, Mendoza was not leaned on heavily in the passing game. His passing attempts per game dropped from over 35 in 2024 to under 24 at Indiana. Other comparisons to Indiana’s 2024 QB, NFL’s Mr. Irrelevant Kurtis Rourke, have spotlighted the consistent efficiency of the Curt Cignetti offense.

In 2024, Fernando Mendoza took 40 sacks with a 16:6 TD to INT ratio

In 2025, Mendoza’s numbers almost perfectly mirrored those of his predecessor

Sure, Indiana's strength of schedule got tougher (59th -> 96th percentile), but also, Kurtis Rourke played the entire year with a… pic.twitter.com/Xw6J6a2FRX

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 27, 2026

After Las Vegas signed Kirk Cousins, everything points toward Mendoza beginning his NFL career as a backup. Landing with new Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak would be a dream for the young quarterback's development. In his three seasons of playcalling, Kubiak brought out the best in Cousins, Derek Carr and Sam Darnold, creating a dynamic and explosive offense built on high usage of under center snaps. It’s an area Mendoza will need plenty of practice in after only taking 3% of snaps under center in 2025.

Fantasy football outlook

His fantasy upside in Year 1 (for the games he’s even on the field) is pretty limited. He brings rushing ability, but not necessarily rushing upside, and will very likely be in a run-heavy offense similar to the 2025 Seahawks. The ultimate goal long term for dynasty leagues would be to become the player he is going to replace: Kirk Cousins. In his first nine seasons, Cousins ranked inside the top-12 in fantasy PPG seven times, although five of those seven were exactly the QB12. He won’t be a top-five asset, but hopefully a fringe QB1 long-term.

The true goal for 2025 is to help the players around him. Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty will rely on Mendoza to turn around the offense with Kubiak and maximize their talents. Looking at the ridiculous efficiency of Indiana WRs Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. will give fantasy managers plenty of hope.

Ty Simpson, Alabama

Measurables: 6' 1 1/8", 211 lbs

Projected Draft Pick: Mid Round 1 Selection ​

Ty Simpson is a polarizing prospect, to say the least. Quarterback will always be the most valuable position in the NFL Draft, and Simpson’s talent is intriguing enough to make him a first-round pick. He’s the prototypical NFL pocket passer who had an excellent final season at Alabama. The issue: it was his only season.

Simpson’s fourth season was his only as a starter. Unlike the Alabama of old, the run game was one of the worst in the SEC. The receiver talent was there, the coaching that brought Michael Penix Jr. to Round 1 was there, but a lot was asked from Simpson with very little experience.

Fantasy football outlook

His smaller stature will bring concern as well — at 6 '1 and 211 lbs — especially as more of a pocket passer than a scrambler as many sub-215 pound NFL quarterbacks are. Again, the 2026 fantasy value isn’t too high, but the long-term dynasty superflex value is still there. first-round draft capital will be big here, as only Brock Purdy and maybe Tyler Shough bring fantasy value as non-Round 1 pocket passers since 2017.​

Ty Simpson is willing to stand in the pocket, work through concepts and can put real zip on the football. The underneath and intermediate areas are where this is highlighted, especially when he has room to operate. pic.twitter.com/fNTYSZwI5Z

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 3, 2026

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Measureables: 6'1 5/8", 203 lbs

Projected Draft Pick: Round 3 Selection

After eight games of 300+ passing yards in 2024, Garrett Nussmeier entered the season as one of the top draft hopefuls. Then the injuries piled up, starting with knee problems in camp and ending with oblique trouble during the season.

We can’t be sure how the LSU QB’s season would have gone with picture-perfect health, but we were able to see him at the Senior Bowl. He won the game’s MVP honors and had an outstanding week of practice, displaying his potential as an NFL QB.

Fantasy football outlook

Nussmeier beginning his career as a starter-in-waiting doesn’t end his fantasy value. Last year alone we saw both Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough provide a boost for players around them as well as themselves in the second half of the season. If Nussmeier can climb back to his 2024 self, he’s a sneaky pick in dynasty superflex leagues.

Look at the ball placement on this throw from LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier. Nice Senior Bowl week from him after dealing with injuries this past season. pic.twitter.com/asp8irdcqP

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) January 30, 2026

Likely Day 3 Quarterbacks

Carson Beck - After transferring from Georgia to Miami for his final season, he led the Hurricanes to a National Championship game. His six years of college experience can be seen as both a negative and a positive.

Cade Klubnik - Entering the year, Klubnik was projected as a first-rounder as a talented QB who had his first start at Clemson as a true freshman. His 36 TDs as a junior fell to 16 in his final year.

Drew Allar - Allar is a once highly-projected NFL prospect and No. 1 high school QB who failed to live up to high expectations at Penn State. He has the tools to be an NFL QB, but failed to have it translate on the field in his three years of starting.

Taylen Green - The Arkansas signal-caller is the second-most athletic QB of all-time based on combine testing. A 6’6” monster with all the raw talent in the world, Green will need to develop into an NFL quarterback.

Cole Payton - Another North Dakota State QB prospect with freak athleticism. Payton will have a lot to prove as a QB after only being a one-year starter as a fifth-year senior in the FCS.