2026 Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian has fighting chance in Kentucky Derby

Pavlovian may not be a betting favorite in the 2026 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but don't discount his chances.

However, this year's Sunland Derby winner enters the race with some reasons to bet on. The race is scheduled to start at 4:57 p.m., MT/5:57 p.m. CT on Saturday, May 2.

Sunland Derby has produced some fantastic performers in Kentucky Derby

• Mine that Derby, who finished fourth in Sunland Derby in 2009, went on to win the Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1.
• Firing Line won the 2015 Sunland Derby and went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby.

What is to like about Pavlovian

Trainer Doug O'Neill has a history of getting horses to run big in the Kentucky Derby. He has won the race twice with I'll Have Another (in 2012) and Nyquist (2016).

Pavlovian had trouble in the past breaking from the gate, but appears to have improved in recent races. After the California-bred won the Sunland Derby, he shipped to Louisiana, to place second in the Louisiana Derby, so adjusting a new track shouldn't be a problem.

Pavlovian is worth a bet with long-shot odds

Pavlovian was given morning-line odds of 30-1 and in the most recent updated live odds,, he's listed at 50-1.

Right To Party scratched and does it affect Pavlovian?

Right To Party became the third horse to scratch for this year's Derby due to being unsound due to front lameness. Robusta, who is also trained by O'Neill, becomes eligible to start in the race. The other horses scratched are Fulleffort and Silent Tactic.

Even with all three scratches, there is still a field of 20 in the race and does not alter things in the starting gate. There are no more also eligibles left, so if any further scratches take place, there will be a field of fewer than 20.