3 archetypes bound to get picked too early in the 2026 NFL Draft

3 archetypes bound to get picked too early in the 2026 NFL Draft originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Sometimes, the NFL seems to learn the right lesson a little too hard. Between falling too far down the positional value cliff or being too willing to give a poor quarterback a fifth-year option, good process can turn bad rather quickly.

That can manifest itself in a given class, too. Some outliers are worth betting on, given their film, athleticism, or developmental runway. Others are simply fodder for those successful outliers to feed on.

In a couple of weeks, the 2026 NFL Draft will give us a glimpse into just how high certain front offices are willing to stray from consensus. If the following archetypes get overdrafted, I'd wager it would come with some ugly post-draft grades.

3 profiles likely to get overdrafted in April

Non-elite, athletic safeties

Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs is already behind the eight ball in his quest to be a top-10 pick. As a safety, he's fighting historical precedent in the name of positional value.

However, this class in particular has kept the door open for Downs to go higher than anticipated. There's only one viable quarterback, no blue-chip non-quarterbacks, and a handful of teams in need of safety health. That bodes well for Downs, who may very well be the earliest safety drafted since Jamal Adams (No. 6 in 2017).

Ohio State's star is an easy top-15 prospect. The rest of the safeties in this class aren't quite as strong, and the first half of Round 1 is no place for a non-elite prospect at a non-premium position. I get it. Dillon Thieneman and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren are special athletes with high ceilings. But that's a risk I'm much more willing to take at, say, 33rd overall than 16th.

History suggests that neither second-tier safety will be a top-20 pick -- even if they ultimately become quality players. The recent smoke, though, should have fans wary of a team going rogue in the middle of Round 1.

Dual-outlier edge rushers

Chasing speed is one of the dominant themes of recent player acquisition. While getting bigger in the trenches has been a push in the opposite direction, it's not a coincidence that players keep threatening 40-yard dash records for their respective positions.

Edge rushers have embodied this trend, too, from Montez Sweat's 4.41-second 40-yard dash to Penn State's factory of freaks and an influx of sub-4.50-second runs in Indianapolis.

MORE:How pass-rushing defensive tackles could shape the top 100

Yet, speed often sacrifices size. It's tough enough to win with explosiveness as a below-average athlete. Doing so without the requisite length to counter offensive tackles is a scary proposition.

Rueben Bain Jr. passes this test, as his blend of size and speed show how he can mitigate poor arm length at the next level. Smaller, slighter edge rushers like Cashius Howell, R Mason Thomas, and Romello Height are fighting a different battle. At times, it seems like they are playing a different sport.

Rolling the dice in Round 1 is often a process of elimination. For edge rushers with poor size and arm length, the realities of NFL-level offensive linemen make two measurable red flags one too many to trust.

Overspecialized wide receivers

It's natural for receivers to have profile-defining strengths. Carnell Tate's ball skills are second to none in this class, while Makai Lemon's nuance and separation skills render him a dynamic -- if limited -- talent. Both are slam-dunk options for Round 1. Other profiles, though, are skewed too far in the direction of one particular skill.

Take Georgia's Zachariah Branch and Tennessee's Chris Brazzell II, for example.

The former saw a disproportionate amount of his opportunities and production come on screens, with few flashes in a more prototypical role. Do we really know that he can separate against man coverage, or threaten defenses downfield, or making contested catches over the middle? His size doesn't suggest that's the case. Maybe he's a gadget dynamo who exceeds expectations and is athletic enough to make even more plays at the next level. Maybe he's Malachi Corley.

Brazzell, meanwhile, has the opposite problem. The next big, fast receiver from Tennessee's "run fast and far" approach to boundary play, Brazzell is unrefined in the shallower parts of the field. Like Branch, there isn't much to suggest he is a versatile, man-beating receiver at the next level, which likely destines him to part-time play. Taking that kind of profile in the first two rounds is a price too tall for my liking, especially with other well-rounded options likely to be available on Day 2.

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