6 things we learned from the first month of the MLB season: The NL Central is good, this rookie class is special and more

The Reds, meanwhile, feature a negative run differential at minus-2, but their pitching has been stellar, even without an inning from ace Hunter Greene. Elly De La Cruz and rookie Sal Stewart have formed one of the best 1-2 position-player punches around, but the rest of the offense has been abysmal and will need to improve if the Reds want to remain in the mix atop this division.

Next in line are the Cardinals, a team many thought would be rebuilding this year but one that thus far has proven rather competent, with an exciting young position-player group led by one of baseball’s biggest breakout stars, Jordan Walker. The Pirates aren’t far behind St. Louis, and they’ve looked like the better team, leaning on their terrific pitching staff led by Paul Skenes and a revamped lineup that has provided far more consistent run support than a year ago.

Last year’s champs, the Brewers, are currently bringing up the rear, though they’re the only last-place team in baseball with a winning record, at 13-11. The Brewers are still waiting for Jackson Chourio to return from injury, and their bullpen has been uncharacteristically shaky in the early going.

Can a good team in the American League please stand up?

Another quirk of the standings through one month — and the flip side of the NL Central’s dominance — has been the complete lack of a standout team in the American League outside of the New York Yankees, who sit at 16-9 with a plus-37 run differential, the fourth-best mark in baseball behind the Braves, Dodgers and Cubs. The National League accounts for eight of the nine best records in baseball through one month of play. Of course, that’s not to say all the bad teams are in the American League: The six worst records in MLB are an even split of AL (Astros, Red Sox, Royals) and NL (Rockies, Mets, Phillies) teams.

For the most part, though, much of the American League has spent the first month floating in the messy middle, with a lot of the clubs that were expected to be contenders off to uneven starts. That group includes last year’s ALCS participants, Toronto and Seattle, each sitting multiple games below .500 as a brutal string of injuries has hampered the Blue Jays and the Mariners’ biggest bats have only recently started to look like themselves after an ice-cold start. Cleveland and Detroit, both postseason teams last year, have each been solid, but the Tigers had to dig themselves out of a 4-9 hole to get to where they are now, and the Guardians haven’t won more than two games in a row, limiting their ability to climb the standings. And then Boston, the last 2025 AL playoff team, is a total mess at the moment.

It seems like the Yankees are pretty good — that much we know. But after that? We’re still waiting to see which teams step up as convincing contenders. Perhaps Baltimore or Texas can break into that discussion, with the Rangers in position to do so considering the slow start of the AL West. But at this point, we’re welcoming any and all nominations.

2022 was a long time ago

Four years ago, the Phillies and Astros met in the World Series, signaling the opening of a championship window for Philadelphia and reasserting Houston’s status as the gold standard of the American League. The Astros claimed the title in six games, a clean triumph for the franchise after their 2017 championship was sullied by the sign-stealing scandal. It was a disappointing conclusion to a magical run through October for the Phillies, but the future looked bright based on the talent in place, and another run at a title felt like a matter of when, not if. The Astros, meanwhile, had some key pieces approaching free agency, but their infrastructure inspired confidence that in all likelihood, the American League would run through Houston for the foreseeable future.

Fast-forward to today, and these two teams find themselves in difficult spots after gradually trending further and further away from the ultimate prize in the years since that World Series. Despite ample regular-season success, the Phillies have endured increasingly early (and painful) eliminations in October, while the makeup of Houston’s roster has changed dramatically, and the Astros just missed the postseason for the first time since 2016.

These troubling trends aside, there was considerable hope entering 2026 that both teams had enough high-end talent to contend, but ugly April showings have squashed that optimism. For the Astros, injuries have tormented the roster for the second year in a row, and they lack the depth to overcome so many key absences, even with Yordan Alvarez playing at an MVP level. And the Phillies have been healthy on offense, but the bats outside of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been awful while the pitching has disappointed, leaving Philadelphia with the worst run differential in MLB (minus-51) and tied with Kansas City for the worst record (8-17).

There’s still time for these franchises to course-correct and remain relevant in the postseason picture, but they can’t wait much longer before kicking it into high gear.

The latest wave of NPB stars has been a mixed bag

This past offseason featured another round of Japanese stars making the leap to the majors. But only one of them — Kazuma Okamoto (four years, $60 million with the Blue Jays) — received a contract in line with industry expectations, while Munetaka Murakami (two years, $34 million with the White Sox) and Tatsuya Imai (three years, $54 million with the Astros) settled for far smaller deals than many projected when they were posted.

We’re a long way from knowing how these contracts will play out, but there has been a clear winner so far among this trio of signings, and that’s Murakami and the White Sox. Murakami’s home run streak ended at five on Thursday, but his prodigious power has been on display from the get-go, as he has racked up 10 home runs in his first 25 big-league games. The 26-year-old is whiffing a ton, as his track record hinted he would, but he’s drawing plenty of walks to help offset the punchouts, and the standout slugging speaks for itself. He has been a treat to watch.

Okamoto, viewed as the safer bet of the two hitters to contribute right away, has struggled to make an impact thus far. He has started nearly every game at third base for Toronto and has collected a few big hits, but his overall output (79 wRC+) has been underwhelming. There are some underlying metrics to feel good about — his 50.9% hard-hit rate and 10.3% walk-rate are both comfortably above league-average — but if the Blue Jays were hoping for a difference-maker, Okamoto hasn’t been one quite yet.

And then there’s Imai, whose Astros tenure barely got off the ground before a stoppage. After three starts — one bad (4 ER in 2 ⅔ IP), one good (5 ⅔ scoreless innings) and one catastrophic (one out recorded, six baserunners allowed) — Imai was placed on the injured list due to what the team described as “right arm fatigue.” He told reporters he was struggling to adjust to life in America both on and off the field, a discouraging development considering the Astros had never signed a player directly from NPB before and apparently have struggled thus far to help Imai make the transition.

The vague diagnosis of his ailment suggests Imai’s IL stint might be a mental reset as much as anything, but Houston needs him to return to the rotation sooner rather than later, considering how many key arms are expected to be out much longer, including ace Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier.

This rookie class looks to be special

While Murakami, Okamoto and Imai are technically rookies, their older ages and prior professional experience puts them in a different category than most first-year players. Among the more traditional prospects in their debut big-league campaigns in 2026, there are a ton of rookies making exciting first impressions. Murakami’s epic power pace could have him squarely in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation, but he’ll have to fend off some serious competition.

That starts with Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle, who already looks like Detroit’s best all-around position player at age 21. Cleveland has ROY candidates on both sides of the ball, as outfielder Chase DeLauter has single-handedly changed the complexion of the Guardians’ offense while lefty Parker Messick leads all rookies in innings pitched (30 ⅔), and his 1.76 ERA ranks fifth-lowest among qualified starting pitchers. Kansas City’s Carter Jensen might have slept through his alarm in an embarrassing early-season incident, but he has been terrific at the plate, with a .565 slugging percentage that ranks behind only Murakami among AL rookies.

In the National League, Pirates phenom Konnor Griffin has arrived as the first major leaguer born in 2006, but he’s still settling into his role as Pittsburgh’s every-day shortstop. There’s time for him to play his way into the Rookie of the Year conversation, but several other NL rookies have gotten a nice headstart toward the award. That group begins with Reds slugger Sal Stewart, as Cincinnati’s first baseman has been one of the best bats not just among rookies but also among all hitters league-wide. He’s hitting .297/.389/.615 with eight homers, and his 24 RBI rank second in MLB behind only Yordan Alvarez.

The Cubs’ Moises Ballesteros is another NL Central rookie doing a ton of damage at the plate (1.086 OPS), though his production has come almost exclusively as a DH and in a platoon role. St. Louis’ JJ Wetherholt and Philadelphia’s Justin Crawford have both been reaching base consistently and could factor into the ROY discussion if they add more power. On the mound, the Mets’ Nolan McLean will be tough to top, but Andrew Painter, Rhett Lowder and Bubba Chandler are all playing pivotal roles for their rotations as well.

Shohei Ohtani is coming for the Cy Young Award … and so is his former teammate

With Shohei Ohtani beginning his first full season as a pitcher with the Los Angeles Dodgers, there was substantial buzz that the two-way sensation could make a serious run at the top accolade that has eluded him: the Cy Young Award. While his spot at the back of the Dodgers’ rotation and his increased time between outings mean he has made just four starts, instead of the five or six by some of the other top arms around the league, Ohtani has delivered on the hype when on the hill. He has allowed one earned run across 24 innings, racking up 25 strikeouts to just six walks and 12 hits allowed.

This is similar to the version of Ohtani we saw down the stretch last season, before he tired out by the end of the World Series, and it lends optimism that if he can rack up enough innings, Ohtani will indeed be in the NL Cy Young conversation. Meanwhile, his bat has yet to really heat up relative to his standards, but it’s hard to complain about a Cy Young contender with an .812 OPS, and his underlying metrics still indicate he is crushing the ball with regularity.

That Ohtani, intent in reestablishing his pitching bona fides, is wowing us should come as no surprise. Much more unexpected has been the breakout of one of his former Angels teammates, José Soriano. The early front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award has allowed just one run (a Drake Baldwin solo blast) across his first six outings, marking a historic beginning to a season for a starting pitcher.

Soriano and Ohtani shared a clubhouse for only a few months in 2023, when Ohtani was playing his final season in Anaheim and Soriano was a hard-throwing rookie reliever looking to establish himself in the majors. Soriano moved to the rotation after Ohtani left and showed flashes of impact the past two seasons, most notably elite groundball rates. But everything has elevated for him in 2026, and Soriano is now translating his top-end velocity into more whiffs while throwing more strikes than ever, suddenly giving the Angels the kind of ace they haven’t had in years (excluding Ohtani).

We’ll see how the schedule shakes out, but it’d be awesome to see Soriano and Ohtani face off on the mound when the two L.A. teams clash in mid-May in Anaheim or in early June at Dodger Stadium.