Browns NFL Draft: Calculating Cleveland's first round trade down

The Cleveland Browns trade down with the Kansas City Chiefs was worth the wait – even if it cut into the attention on the Cleveland Cavaliers game. The Browns won the trade according to six different trade calculators.

Draft trade calculators have become a cottage industry, outpacing mock draft sites. Early calculators, such as Jimmy Johnson’s calculator, put a premium on top talent. However, more recent iterations have emphasized the number of potential starters added. All the calculators smooth the data down relatively well. The discrepancy between all calculators comes from the 74th pick. The top of the third round is a sweet spot for starting talent.

Did the Browns win the trade?

Analytically driven calculators like Over the Cap and Baldwin reflect that understanding. The Browns won the trade on paper; the question is by how much. I agree with the analytic approach. The extra third-round pick should become a starter, and gives the team optionality to approach day two of the draft.

Winning a trade ultimately comes down to picking better players than the other team. The Browns have a good chance to best the Chiefs there. The Browns were able to select the first offensive lineman in the 2026 NFL draft. Fano was one of the top-rated offensive linemen, even if it wasn’t the consensus top dog. Fano should flourish under line coach George Warhop’s tutelage.

The 24th pick in the draft, KC Concepcion, was another top receiving prospect. Questions about Concepcion's size and catching ability dropped him in the first round. The Browns are in a great position to have an exciting second night of the NFL draft, with three picks, giving them many pathways to talent.

This article originally appeared on Browns Wire: Browns NFL Draft: Calculating Cleveland's first round trade down