7 NHL teams who can actually win 2026 Stanley Cup, ranked by their championship chances

DENVER, COLORADO - APRIL 09: Nathan MacKinnon #29 of the Colorado Avalanche skates against the Calgary Flames in the second period at Ball Arena on April 9, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images

Sure, anyone can win the Stanley Cup so long as they make the playoffs — but is that really true? At this point we know there are contenders and pretenders in every postseason, and while it’s really cool to see Sidney Crosby in playoff hockey again, nobody is giving the Penguins a legitimate chance to raise the cup.

Today we look at the seven teams best poised to actually take it all home when the dust settles, from the clear favorites to the long shots.

No. 1: Colorado Avalanche

The Avs have been the best team in hockey this year, and it’s not particularly close. Anchored by Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar, Colorado found a new gear in 2025-26 with the addition of Martin Necas. While Necas arrived last season as part of the Mikko Rantanen trade with Carolina, he really found his footing this season and meshed with the team.

Boasting a ludicrous +94 goal differential this season, nobody can match Colorado when it comes to the strength of their top two lines. The only risk for this team making a run to the cup is the severity of Cale Makar’s upper body injury. We know he’s going to miss some playoff time, and if that lingers it could have a huge effect on this team’s chances.

Key strength: Superstar strength out of their first two skating lines, as well as top line defense
Key weakness: Cale Makar is carrying an injury into the playoffs, and that could lead to a slow start

No. 2: Carolina Hurricanes

The Carolina Hurricanes are more or less the same team that have been a playoff staple for the last eight years. Rod Brind’Amour’s brand of team-focused, no-superstar hockey does a phenomenal job of leading the Canes to amazing regular season results, but tends to falter in the playoffs where individual performance reigns supreme.

Carolina will hope that the free agent addition of Nikolaj Ehlers is the missing piece they needed, and after a slow start Ehlers became everything the team hoped for with 68 points this season. The 2025-26 iteration of the Hurricanes took another offensive step forward with Seth Jarvis taking the next step, and Jackson Blake emerging as a future star — but this team has the worst goaltending of anyone in the playoffs this year, which could be mammoth problem.

Key strength: Four line skating depth with little drop off between lines
Key weakness: Both Freddie Anderson and Brandon Bussi are very shaky in net

No. 3: Dallas Stars

The Stars are a very, very good hockey team that too often masquerades as an elite one. That might seem unfair, but it’s tough to deny that the Stars failed to live up to expectations this season despite finishing with over 100 points on the year.

This was a team who were a preseason favorite to win the west, but Mikko Rantanen isn’t nearly as potent a scorer without McKinnon to set him up, and the Stars’ core weakness is a lack of playmaking centers. There’s an undeniable amount of firepower in Dallas, but running the game through the wings hasn’t traditionally been a recipe for success in the postseason.

Key strength: Streaky team who can dominate games when everything clicks
Key weakness: Things don’t click often enough for this team to be consistent

No. 4: Montreal Canadiens

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the NHL is a better place when the Montreal Canadiens are in the playoffs. This new generation of the Habs are brimming with young talent poised to take the next step forward. When you look at this roster you see a team that’s already over-performing expectations, and none of their key players have hit their prime yet.

Entering the playoffs Montreal has one of the strongest home ice advantages in the playoffs, with the Bell Centre being one of the most formidable places to play at the best of times. That edge isn’t likely to be quite enough to mitigate the defensive issues the Candiens are yet to resolve, or make it through with mid-tier goaltending.

Key strength: Goal-scoring potential of Cole Caulfield and Juraj Slafkovsky
Key weakness: Too much youth without enough veteran leadership to make a deep run

No. 5: Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild understood the assignment in 2025-26. After signing Kirill Kaprizov to a mammoth extension they had to pour more gas on the fire, and did just that by being the biggest in-season buyers by adding one of the NHL’s best defenseman in Quinn Hughes, then bolstering their depth with numerous smaller deals at the deadline.

Hughes has helped transform this team from a back-end playoff hopeful to a legitimate contender. The core issue is that when it comes to scoring Minnesota is wholly reliant on Kaprizov and Matt Boldy to find the net, with the rest of the team lagging far, far behind.

Key strength: Three brilliant playmakers in Kaprizov, Boldy, and Hughes
Key weakness: They’re in the west, which is dominated by the Avs

No. 6: Tampa Bay Lightning

When you have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net there’s always going to be a chance to win games, and the Lightning showed that in 2025-26 by allowing just 222 goals on the year. The problem comes at the other end, where regression from both Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel has put even more pressure on Nikita Kucherov to carry the load for Tampa Bay.

This version of the Lightning is really good, but hasn’t changed dramatically enough to see where they succeed where they’ve failed in the past. Corey Perry is too old to be a difference maker at this point, and the team overpaid to get him at the deadline. As such it feels like the Lightning are headed back to hit the same brick wall. Still, there’s always a chance they can get hot and make a deep run as they have in the past.

Key strength: Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel are two of the best scoring forwards in the playoffs
Key weakness: This looks too much like the same Lightning team that lost in the first round of 2024-25

No. 7: Buffalo Sabres

I hate putting the best feel-good story in hockey so low on the list, but it’s a credit to Buffalo that they make the contenders list at all. The Sabres went from finishing 7th in the Atlantic Conference to 1st this season, as they went from a team who seemed poised pre-season to be sellers and rebuilders at the deadline, to now being a legitimate force.

This team has solid depth, but lacks the high-end talent to really compete just quite yet. The power play unit for Buffalo isn’s fully developed, and once you get past Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch the forwards fall off a cliff.

Key strength: Devil-may-care freedom belief they can beat anyone
Key weakness: Not enough depth to compete just yet