76ers vs. Celtics: Will Boston be challenged in Round 1? Series keys, schedule and prediction

*if necessary

Series betting odds

(Via BetMGM)

Boston Celtics (-900)
Philadelphia 76ers (+600)

What we know about the Celtics

The Celtics lost All-NBA first team mainstay Jayson Tatum to a ruptured Achilles in the second round of the 2025 playoffs, where their title defense ended against the New York Knicks. Moreover, they faced a massive luxury tax bill in Tatum’s absence, shedding the salaries of Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford and Luke Kornet.

Many figured for them for a gap year (i.e., Tatum rehabs, they duck the tax, maybe even pick up a lottery pick, and they refocus their attention on the 2026-27 season.) Only head coach Joe Mazzulla, a maniacal competitor, didn’t allow it. Jaylen Brown, who submitted his own campaign worthy of the All-NBA First Team, wouldn’t allow it.

Everyone in Boston deserves credit for taking a step forward in Tatum’s absence. Guards Derrick White and Payton Pritchard assumed added responsibility on the offensive end. Neemias Queta is a Most Improved Player candidate at center, where Luka Garza is an X-factor. Unheralded wings Sam Hauser, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez and Jordan Walsh each impacted victories. Even Anfernee Simons made significant contributions, before he was traded at the deadline for Nikola Vučević.

The Celtics played so well as a collective, in fact, that it allowed Tatum to return at his own pace, ahead of schedule, to a second-place team. It wasn’t an easy decision. Did he push himself too much to come back too early? Could the Celtics contend anyway, even with a healthy Tatum, considering all the talent they lost in the summer?

Tatum has answered both questions with flying colors so far. No, he did not come back too early. He’s averaging a 22-10-5 in 33 minutes per game over 16 appearances, looking a lot like himself, only a little less explosive. (And more explosive every game.) And yes, Boston can contend with this Brown, this Tatum and this supporting cast of overachievers. They are the betting favorites to emerge from the East for a reason.

What we know about the 76ers

You could tell a lot about these 76ers from their 117-116 win in Boston on the opening night of the regular season. Joel Embiid’s availability was spotty, even as he was in uniform, and Paul George was recovering from offseason knee surgery, so Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe established themselves as Philadelphia’s future instead.

So it was for much of the season. Maxey was an electric playmaker all year, averaging 28.3 points and 6.6 assists per game. He will almost certainly make an All-NBA team. Edgecombe will almost certainly finish third in the Rookie of the Year race behind Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg and Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel.

Quentin Grimes rounds out a solid guard rotation that would have been even deeper had executive Daryl Morey not swapped Jared McCain for future draft consideration.

Meanwhile, Embiid missed more than half the season for a third straight year. When he was on the floor, he was still very scary, both as a player — averaging a 27-8-4 on 49/33/85 shooting splits in 31.6 minutes per game — and as an injury risk. Sixers fans held their breath on every fall. In the end, it was an appendectomy that will cost him (in all likelihood) the entirety of their first-round series. It is as if the 76ers are cursed.

George also missed 45 games, including 25 to suspension. The nine-time All-Star was playing his best basketball in a Sixers uniform, averaging a 24-6-4 on 48/47/75 shooting splits over a seven-game stretch, when news broke of Embiid’s appendix.

So, now the Sixers have Maxey, Edgecombe and George but no Embiid. Those lineups may still be +5.1 points per 100 meaningful possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, but they feature a lot of Dominick Barlow or Kelly Oubre Jr. at the 4 and Andre Drummond or Adem Bona at the 5. Which is to say: Embiid’s presence will be missed.

Head-to-head

The Celtics and 76ers split their regular-season series, 2-2.

Three of the four meetings occurred before Thanksgiving, two of which came before the calendar turned to November. Even the fourth one, on March 1, which looked the most like what we might see in this series, didn’t boast Tatum or George for a minute.

Early in the season, the Celtics relied heavily on Simons and Josh Minott, Chris Boucher and Xavier Tillman, guys who are no longer on the roster. Those minutes have been allocated elsewhere, mostly to Tatum. Scheierman and Gonzalez played their way into the rotation. The center group of Queta, Garza and Vučević is as good as could have been expected, given the exits of Porziņģis, Horford and Kornet.

Point is: Boston’s rotation looks a lot different now than it did when the 76ers handed them a pair of one-possession losses in the first few weeks of the season. The same can be said of the 76ers, who counted Justin Edwards as their leading scorer in a 102-100 win over the Celtics on Nov. 11. Take it all with a grain of salt.

Know this: Between them, Maxey and Edgecombe averaged 50 points (on 46.4% shooting from 3!), 12.3 assists and 9.5 rebounds in four games against the Celtics this season. Stopping them, with George, even without Embiid, is no easy proposition.

Matchup to watch

Tyrese Maxey vs. Derrick White

Because Pritchard, the 2025 Sixth Man of the Year, started Boston’s first three games vs. Philadelphia this season, he drew the bulk of the defensive assignment on Maxey. Pritchard, who is quick, did a decent job, even better than White, at least statistically.

But I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest White — Boston’s All-Defensive candidate — will draw the assignment on the 76ers’ All-NBA guard to start the series. His ability to pick pockets (1.1 steals per game) and swat shots (1.3 blocks per game) will make Maxey think on every possession, even if he has had success against White.

White had plenty of success against Maxey, too, scoring 20 points in less than 10 minutes when matched up with the Sixers’ guard, according to NBA tracking data. The Celtics scored 161 points per 100 possessions whenever Brown called Maxey into the action. Tatum will pick on Maxey, too. All of the Celtics will. It’s a problem, especially if and when Embiid isn’t there to add a layer of rim protection behind him.

The Sixers were outscored by 1.3 points per 100 possessions in the 40.5 minutes per game that Maxey was on the floor against the Celtics this season, and that will spell trouble for Philadelphia if the trend continues. Slot Edgecombe beside Maxey, and the Sixers outscored the Celtics by 1.8 points per 100 possessions over 127 minutes.

Add George to the mix, leverage the defense further, leaving Maxey and Edgecombe on islands, and maybe Philadelphia has something, or so the thinking goes. George hasn’t played a second against Boston this season. Then again, the Celtics have also added a wing of their own, and theirs is a 28-year-old modern marvel of medicine.

Key question

How close can Jayson Tatum come to peak Jayson Tatum?

He has the rebounding, the driving ability, the shooting form, the playmaking, most of what has made Tatum into Tatum. But he doesn’t have the elevation or explosiveness.

He’s close on both, seemingly getting closer with each game. He posted a 15-12-7 in 27 minutes of a debut on March 7. He broke 30 minutes three games later and scored 30 points for the first time this year in only his 11th game back. A few nights later, he logged a 25-18-11 triple-double. Tatum averaged a 22-10-5 on 41/33/82 shooting splits in 16 games of the regular season — remarkable, given he is 11 months removed from surgery on his torn right Achilles — but we all think he could get even better, right?

After all, when last we saw him on a basketball court in the playoffs, he was putting together a 42-8-4 masterpiece over 40 minutes, just before his Achilles gave out. He was the best American-born player alive and one of the five best players on Earth.

He was, practically, what Brown has been for the Celtics all of this season. If Tatum can return to an All-NBA level, he and Brown will have a case again as the best duo in the league, and then it won’t just be Philadelphia that has to worry about Boston.

Concerns about Tatum and Brown and whether they can coexist are comical at this point. They delivered a title and were five minutes from taking a 3-1 lead in another NBA Finals. They have won 15 playoff series together. Few duos have ever enjoyed so much success. Tatum and Brown have never lost as a tandem in the first round, and they have a supporting cast, as unheralded as it may be, that can benefit them.

They are 28 and 29 years old, respectively, in the prime of their careers. At their peaks, they are perennial title contenders. The Achilles injury threatened Tatum’s peak. We think he can get back to those heights. But can he this year? If each series is an opportunity for Tatum to find another gear, meeting this moment is a next step.

Prediction: Celtics in six

Without Embiid, the 76ers have been outscored by 3.2 points per 100 possessions, allowing 116.3 points per 100 possessions — a bottom-10 figure. Even if Maxey and Edgecombe win their backcourt matchups, mostly against White and Pritchard, how does Philadelphia combat Tatum and Brown when George is its only star forward?

Given all of Boston’s efficiencies — fewest turnovers per game, third in made 3s per game and top-five in offensive rebounding rate — it is hard to imagine the Sixers manufacturing enough points, even with Maxey, Edgecombe and George as options.