Alive: Mariners at Padres Series Preview

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 12: Manny Machado #13 and Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres celebrate on the field after defeating the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park on April 12, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It was great to see the Mariners finally play up to their potential for an entire weekend. That it came at the expense of the Astros makes it all the more sweet. Between the odd fourth game against Houston on Monday, the quick three-game road trip to San Diego in the middle of this week, and a quick second series against the Rangers back at home this weekend, I’m not sure what the MLB schedule makers were thinking with this week.

The Mariners won the inaugural “official” version of the Vedder Cup last year, taking five of six games against the Padres. The last time San Diego won this regional rivalry was back in 2021.

The Padres have been one of the most entertaining teams over the last few years. They’ve got tons of superstar talent on the big league roster and haven’t been afraid to make aggressive moves to stay competitive. Years of those win-now moves have depleted the depth in San Diego’s organization, which makes this roster pretty top heavy and potentially very fragile. When everyone is healthy and things are working as they should be, this team is as good as any other in the National League.

While the Padres’ pitching staff isn’t currently at full strength, the lineup is firing on all cylinders. Built around a quartet of stars, the offense mirrors the construction of the entire roster: extremely top heavy. Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn’t been able to replicate the MVP-type production from earlier in his career before his motorcycle accident in 2021, but he’s still been one of the best players in baseball over the last three years. Manny Machado is the iron man of the group; he’s played in less than 150 games in a season just three times in his 12-year career and one of those times was his rookie year when he was called up midseason. He’s been one of the most consistent producers in baseball as well, the metronome in the heart of the Padres lineup. I’m not sure Xander Bogaerts will ever get back to the level of production he enjoyed in Boston, but he plays excellent defense at a premium position. The star with the biggest question marks is Jackson Merrill; he took a step back last year after a fantastic debut in 2024, though he’s still only 23 years old and still has an extremely high ceiling.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Michael King looked like an ace in his one lone full season in the starting rotation back in 2024. He had made the switch from the bullpen during the year prior, but his follow up campaign after his breakout was filled with injuries. He missed about two and half months of the season last year with a shoulder injury and another two weeks in August with knee inflammation. He never really looked settled last year and his ERA and FIP really suffered. He’s got a couple of solid pitch pairs to attack batters on both sides of the plate; four-seam-changeup against left-handers and sinker-sweeper against right-handers. With his low-slot delivery, he gets a ton of horizontal movement on his secondary pitches, while still staying pretty vertical with his fastballs.

Randy Vásquez has spent the last few seasons as a reliable, innings-eating back-end starter for the Padres. Between 2023 and ‘24, he had the lowest strikeout rate among all qualified starters, though his ERA was a decent 4.27. All of a sudden, he’s throwing two ticks harder this year and he’s more than doubled his strikeout rate. The extra oomph on his pitches is obviously great, but it’s particularly helpful for Vásquez because of his seven-pitch repertoire. Discerning which of those seven pitches is heading towards the plate is a lot easier when you only have to worry about a 93 mph fastball rather than 95 mph heat. With the threat of a true, bat-missing heater in his back pocket, his entire arsenal becomes more effective because he has so many looks he can present to the batter.

I can only assume that Walker Buehler’s 2019 and ‘21 seasons are doing a lot of heavy lifting for his reputation as he’s bounced between three different teams over the last two seasons. He put up 5.1 and 5.6 fWAR in those two campaigns but underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. He hasn’t been the same since and he was legitimately one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. His four-seam fastball was one of the best in baseball at his peak but it’s lost a ton of its carry and just isn’t an effective pitch anymore. He’s tried to adjust by deepening his repertoire and mixing in all of his secondary pitches a lot more often. It didn’t work in Boston last year, but the Padres desperately needed starting pitchers this spring, so they’re giving Buehler another shot to see if he can figure things out.

The Big Picture:

Haha, Lastros.