The Toronto Maple Leafs have various scenarios for the 2026 NHL draft, including the possibility of drafting first or second overall. However, they risk dropping to sixth or seventh if teams with better records win the lottery.
Key points
Maple Leafs could draft first overall if they win the lottery
They could also draft second if they win the second lottery
Fifth overall is possible if teams with worse records stay in place
Worst-case scenario is dropping to sixth or seventh
Pick could go to Boston Bruins due to previous trade
There are some things we know about the Toronto Maple Leafs and their first-round draft pick this summer.
The Maple Leafs could draft first overall if they win the draft lottery. They could also draft second-overall if they win the second lottery for the second pick. They could also draft fifth overall if all teams with a worse record than Toronto stay in their draft spot.
The worst-case scenario for Toronto is a team with a better record than the Leafs winning either the first or second pick in the lottery. That would push Toronto into sixth or seventh overall in the draft, and that would mean the Maple Leafsâ pick would be shuttled to the Boston Bruins as payment for last seasonâs trade that made defenseman Brandon Carlo a Leaf.
But for argumentâs sake, letâs presume Toronto hangs onto its first-rounder this year. If the Leafs do retain their pick, they should have a very good idea of who theyâll be picking.
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If they get the first or second-overall pick, theyâll either get standout NCAA forward Gavin McKenna or Swedish star winger Ivar Stenberg. But hereâs where it gets interesting: if the Maple Leafs wind up with the fifth-overall pick, theyâre going to have a major philosophical choice to make.
Many current mock drafts have four prospect defensemen in the area of the third-overall through the seventh-overall picks â Ontario League blueliner Chase Reid, NCAA D-man Keaton Verhoeff, Western League defenseman Carson Carels and Latvian blueliner Alberts Smits. But also in that top-five mix is OHL center Caleb Malhotra â the son of former NHLer and former Maple Leafs assistant coach Manny Malhotra.
Thus, if youâre the Leafs and youâre picking fifth-overall, do you go with the best forward available in Malhotra, or is it time the Leafs drafted by need, and choose one of Reid, Verhoeff, Carels or Smits? All four of those defensemen have the size and all-around game that Toronto needs more of from its defensemen. Although thereâs always a degree of risk you take on when youâre projecting what a young D-man is capable of, you also are rarely, if ever, going to acquire an elite young defenseman unless you do so through the draft.
So, while the Maple Leafs also could certainly use the help down the middle that Malhotra would deliver, you can make the argument itâs easier to find difference-making help up front than it is to find D-men who will be fixtures for you over the course of the next decade-and-a-half or longer.
Indeed, you can also make the argument that the biggest piece of the puzzle the Leafs have been lacking over the years is a needle-moving defenseman. They thought they had that in Morgan Rielly, but he hasnât ascended to be a Norris Trophy candidate as the NHLâs best defenseman in quite some time. And nobody else in the Leafsâ development system has even come close to Rielly, let alone been better than him.
And yes, weâre well aware Toronto has OHLer Ben Danford in the pipeline. But Danford is not projected to be a difference-maker the way the NHLâs true top defensemen are.
Itâs no coincidence that those teams were successful because they employed game-changing D-men. They needed more than that, but without those defensemen, those teams would be where Toronto is â full of regrets and disappointment.
Thus, donât let anyone tell you it doesnât matter whether the Leafs go with Malhotra with the fifth-overall pick, or whether they spend the pick on a defenseman. The right choice for Toronto this year is a blueliner.
All things considered, the Maple Leafsâ best-case scenario is to come away with Stenberg or McKenna. But if that doesnât happen, the Buds need to address their biggest need â and thatâs on âDâ.
The Leafs may not get a better opportunity to acquire an elite defenseman than theyâll have in this draft. They must make the most of their pick at fifth-overall by choosing a blueliner.
