Are Diamondbacks At Their Best in 1-Run Games?

Ketel Marte hit a walk off RBI double to win a 1-run game on 5 April. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Which teams had the most 1-run games?

Frequent 1-Run Games.  In games through 8 April, the Rockies and the Diamondbacks were tied for the most 1-run games in the Majors.  On 10 April, the changed standings showed the Diamondbacks in the lead with seven 1-run games, the Mariners in second place with six 1-run games, and five(!) teams tied with five 1-run games.

Win-Loss Record.  In games through 10 April, looking seven teams with at least five 1-run games, the Diamondbacks had the most(!) wins. Their win-loss record in 1-run games was 4 wins and 3 losses.

Other teams with positive win-loss records were Blue Jays, Phillies, and Rangers (each with 3-2 records).

Characteristic of 1-Run Games.   Observations:

• In three 1-run games, the Diamondbacks’ opponents never held the lead during the game.  The Diamondbacks prevented their opponents from taking the lead.  None of these were come-from-behind wins.
• In one 1-run game, the Diamondbacks took a 1-run lead in the top of the fifth inning, and after that the opponent was unable to score any runs. After the fifth inning, the Diamondbacks prevented their opponents from taking the lead.
• In 3 of the 7 1-run games, in the eighth inning the Diamondbacks opponents either tied the game or took the lead.   The Diamondbacks allowed their opponents to get back in the game in the eighth inning.

Addendum: After completing this article about the first 14 games, the next two games were 1-run games.

• In game 15 the Diamondbacks lost a 1-run game; thereby increasing their total to eight 1-run games. This loss was unique because the opponents scored the winning runs in the third inning instead of the eighth inning.
• In game 16 the Diamondbacks won a 1-run game; thereby increasing their total to nine 1-run games. This win was unique because it was the Diamondbacks’ first come-from-behind win in a 1-run game.

Why did the Diamondbacks have relative success among the three teams with the most 1-run games?

Scrappy Underdogs Fighting to the Last Out. Although my immediate answer was that the Diamondbacks are the scrappy underdogs that keep fighting to the last out.  But is that correct?  What does the data show?  Most innings with runs scored happened early in the game.

The following table shows the average percentage of innings with at least one run (through 10 April). Data from FanGraphs.

The data are inconsistent with fighting just as hard to the last out.  Scrappy underdogs fighting was not the reason.

Quality-Start Rotation.  Another answer is the rotation.  In the preseason, I wrote that if the rotation, despite my expectation of being average, could achieve quality starts in half their games, that would give the Diamondbacks significant chances to reach the playoffs.  In the first 14 games, only three were quality starts.  In another five games, the starter only allowed one run or less; thereby they kept the Diamondbacks in the game.

The starters fell short of 50% quality starts.  A quality-start rotation was not the reason.

Bullpen Shutdowns.  Another answer is that the Diamondbacks bullpen makes a difference.  Thru 10 April, the Diamondbacks and the Pirates were tied for second best in the Majors with 22 shutdown performances by bullpen pitchers.  The Pirates are renown for their excellent pitching, so that is great company.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are in a 4-way tie for second most meltdowns (11 meltdowns).

The Diamondbacks ratio of 2.o shutdowns per meltdown is above average. Although I can confidently state bullpen pitchers made an impact, perhaps that impact was positive in only about two thirds of their appearances.

My conclusion is that so far, the bullpen was a more likely reason for the relative success in 1-run games.

Summary.

After 14 games, the Diamondbacks led the Majors with seven 1-run games, the Mariners were in second place with six 1-run games, and five(!) teams were tied with five 1-run games. Addendum: After 16 games, they continued to lead the Majors with nine 1-run games.

Characteristics of 1-run games:

• When the Diamondbacks won 1-run games, they prevented their opponenets from taking the lead from the fifth inning forward.
• When the Diamondback lost 1-run games, their opponents either tied the game or took the lead in the eighth inning.

The most likely of three reasons for their relative success (4-3) in 1-run games was their 22 shutdown performances by bullpen pitchers.  The rejected reasons were quality starts by the rotation, and that the Diamondbacks were scrappy underdogs fighting to the last out.

Although the Diamondbacks experienced relative success in 1-run games compared to other teams with frequent 1-run games, they were not at their best.