ASK IRA: Would a quality draft pick change the Heat’s trajectory?

TL;DR

The Miami Heat will pick 13th in the draft, with discussions on whether a quality pick could alter their trajectory. Key players like Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo remain, but the team's success hinges on potential trades and roster changes.

Key points

Miami Heat will pick 13th in the NBA draft.
Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are key players remaining from the 2023 NBA Finals.
The effectiveness of the current roster is questioned due to past injuries.
Trading for a higher draft pick could improve the team's prospects.

Q: Ira, OK we now know we are picking 13th. Everyone seems hell-bent on not returning the same old, same old, but shouldn’t consideration be given to see how the draft plays out? Maybe Pat Riley can trade his way into a Top 4 or Top 7 draft pick with an impact player and then it really is not, same old, same old, running it back. Having Tyler Herro in a full training camp and available to start the season will help as well. – Brian, Fort Lauderdale.

A: First the argument of running it back or it being stale tends to be widely overstated for this reason: From the roster that went to the 2023 NBA Finals against the Nuggets, the only players still with the team are Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic and Dru Smith. So, basically, just two rotation players. That was just three years ago. That said, the question comes down to whether the math equation of Adebayo plus Herro minus Jimmy Butler is capable of sustained success. The past two seasons, it has not been, partly due to injury. So if you are asking whether the No. 13 pick, which certainly could be a quality component, dramatically changes the calculus, the answer is that is unlikely. But if you are not willing to move Bam (per Pat Riley), then the entirety of this debate comes down to whether you can sub out Tyler for someone who makes the rest of what is in place dramatically better. The competing offers for Giannis Antetokounmpo should answer that question.

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Q: Ira, we all know what you’re trying to do, putting out names like Kevin Durant or LeBron James to see if anyone will bite. Stop it. A 40-year-old is not going to change this. – Martin.

A: But such second-tier stars also could prove the limit of any type of reshuffle. The Bucks likely will get better offers for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Clippers better offers for Kawhi Leonard (if he were to hit the market). Ultimately, it comes down to the question and answer above, that of change for change sakes. Never been a fan of simply reshuffling the deck. That ultimately will come down to whether the Heat believe they have maximized the current core, or simply need to augment it to make it something more.

Q; What did you make of Norm Powell working out in the Heat gym? – Eddie.

A: I assume you’re asking because Norman Powell is an impending free agent. First, players have to work out somewhere, so it not only is not unusual for an impending free agent to work at his team’s facility in the interim, but even a player from another team to stop by to get in some shooting. Teams are very accommodating in that regard. Does Norman Powell want to return? At his preferred asking price, sure. But there is a lot more to that equation.

Q&A

What is the significance of the Miami Heat's 13th draft pick?

The 13th draft pick could provide an opportunity for the Heat to acquire a quality player, but its impact on the team's success remains uncertain.

How does Tyler Herro's availability affect the Miami Heat's strategy?

Tyler Herro's full training camp participation is expected to improve the team's performance, potentially influencing their decisions in the draft and trades.

Could trading for a top draft pick change the Heat's future?

Trading for a top draft pick could significantly alter the Heat's trajectory, especially if it allows them to acquire an impactful player to complement their existing roster.