Astros vs. Mariners parlay: Seattle should have pitching edge on Monday

If there's a Major League Baseball standalone matinee game on any weekday, I'm probably going to preview it in if I have an opinion. These games do so well in terms of MLB betting action, and I do have an opinion for today's AL West matchup featuring Houston at Seattle. It's one of those rare Monday games that is a series finale and not an opener. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 ET.

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Astros vs. Mariners same-game parlay (+116 at FanDuel)

• Mariners ML
• Alt Under 9.5

I expected the Astros to take a pretty significant step back this season after the dynasty officially ended in 2025 in season an eight-season postseason run end. And they have taken a step back at 6-10 and last in the AL West. The lineup still has plenty of talent led by Yordan Alvarez, future Hall of Famer Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Jeremy Pena (he's dealing with an injury and iffy for today after sitting Sunday), Carlos Correa and others, but the pitching staff is a major problem – ranking dead last in the majors with a 6.49 ERA.

The issues have been compounded with ace Hunter Brown on the injured list with a shoulder strain. Framber Valdez left in free agency for Detroit over the winter, and the Stros simply haven't come close to replacing the southpaw.

A couple of years ago, someone like righty Mike Burrows (1-2, 5.63 ERA) would not be a member of the rotation but Houston doesn't really have many options with Burrows on the hill today. He was acquired in December from Pittsburgh in a three-team deal that also included Tampa Bay. Burrows was rocked in his season debut vs. the Angels but has been decent in the two starts since. He's just not going to be going very deep into games is all.

The 26-year-old did see the Mariners in 2025, also in Seattle, but took a tough-luck loss with five shutout innings in Pittsburgh's 1-0 defeat. Burrows allowed only three hits but walked four. Cal Raleigh walked three times.

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Raleigh got totally hosed for AL MVP last year despite setting an MLB record for home runs by a catcher with 60 – the first primary catcher and first switch-hitter in MLB history to reach that mark. He broke the Mariners' franchise record (57). But Raleigh has been pretty horrific in the early going this year, batting only .133 with 24 strikeout and an OPS of .499 whereas it was .948 in 2025. He has gone yard twice.

The Mariners as a whole are not hitting much at .198 collectively – although they have scored at least six runs in each of the first three of this series, winning each -- and that's why they are 7-9. That being said, Seattle has a stellar rotation. There aren't many pitchers in the majors nastier than righty George Kirby (1-2, 3.60 ERA), who goes today. He has gone at least six in all three starts so far, two of them quality. But also has lost the past two due to no run support.

Last season, Kirby, who usually has significantly better home splits at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, was 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA in two starts vs. the Astros – both in Houston. Altuve can't hit him career at 3-for-21, while Alvarez is 3-for-16 with six Ks. Maybe he gets a rare day off. Correa is  a .364 hitter with a homer vs. Kirby in 11 at-bats.

The Astros have rarely been swept in any series in recent years but even less so a four-game like this is with Seattle having that opportunity today. Houston is 1-8 away and has dropped seven in a row on the road.

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Usually, I'll flip an ML favorite to +1 or +1.5 for protection but I'm OK with the Mariners money line here, and I added the alt total leg for a plus-money price.