Banged Up: Mariners vs. Braves Series Preview

Probable Pitchers

**Updated Stuff+ Explainer**

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

  

  | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JR Ritchie | 12.1 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 23.1% | 35.3% | 2.92 | 5.99 | | Logan Gilbert | 38 | 24.4% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 36.7% | 4.03 | 3.33 | Due to all the injuries the Braves have suffered in their starting rotation, JR Ritchie made his major league debut a little ahead of schedule. A 2022 first round pick out of Bainbridge High School, he quickly bounced back from a serious arm injury in ‘23 and jumped through Atlanta’s farm system. None of his skills truly stand out, but the sum of the whole package is an above average pitcher. His command is good enough, his fastballs have decent enough shape, and he has a deep enough repertoire to work through a lineup a couple of times. He won’t be dominant, but he’s good enough to hold down a spot towards the back of a rotation. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bryce Elder | 43 | 20.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 43.3% | 1.88 | 3.13 | | George Kirby | 45 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 56.5% | 3.00 | 3.66 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 7.8% | 31.2% | 92.5 | 80 | 74 | 119 | 0.280 | | Sinker | 53.4% | 8.5% | 91.4 | 89 | 125 | 84 | 0.325 | | Cutter | 0.0% | 17.1% | 88.8 | 82 | | | | | Changeup | 4.7% | 12.1% | 85.7 | 88 | | | | | Slider | 34.2% | 31.2% | 83.4 | 87 | 97 | 76 | 0.248 | Bryce Elder has been a surprising stabilizing force in the Braves rotation. An All-Star back in 2023, he’s really struggled over the last two years, putting up a combined 5.59 ERA and a 4.55 FIP in ‘24 and ‘25. He’s made some subtle tweaks to his pitch arsenal and has looked solid across his first seven starts of this season. He added a cutter to his mix, and even though the pitch doesn’t really stand out, it has allowed him to cut back on the usage of his sinker. He’s now throwing his slider, his best pitch, as his primary pitch and increased the usage of his four-seamer as well. The results have been fantastic even if the underlying peripherals aren’t as impressed with his skills. Still, it’s vastly improved over his ugly performance from the last two years; that’s all the Braves needed at this point in the season. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Grant Holmes | 37.1 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 44.2% | 4.34 | 5.05 | | Bryan Woo | 41 | 17.5% | 3.6% | 9.0% | 31.0% | 4.61 | 4.22 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 33.1% | 40.7% | 94.6 | 80 | 72 | 102 | 0.375 | | Sinker | 13.0% | 0.9% | 93.4 | 92 | | | | | Cutter | 2.0% | 7.8% | 92.0 | 82 | | | | | Changeup | 0.0% | 5.3% | 89.6 | | | | | | Curveball | 6.3% | 14.3% | 83.4 | 98 | | | | | Slider | 45.7% | 31.1% | 85.4 | 99 | 150 | 114 | 0.287 | Grant Holmes made the leap into the big leagues back in 2024 after a long and winding minor league career. The key to his late-career breakout was a revamped slider that helped him boost his strikeout rates up into the 24–25% range. An elbow injury affected his command last year and his results slid a little and he’s continued to struggle to start this season. He’s got a deep repertoire to work with, though the rest of his pitches are merely average at best. The slider is devastating, however, returning a whiff rate approaching 50% this year.

The Big Picture: