Best value bets for UFC 328: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland

Best bet: Chimaev to win by submission or decision (-250), small stab at Chimaev by sub at near even odds

Tatsuro Taira (-175) vs. Joshua Van (+145)

(Fightnomics)

Another striker versus grappler, but this time with much closer odds. Taira doesn’t attempt takedowns quite at the same pace as Chimaev, and Van’s takedown defense is very good, which makes the odds closer despite similar dynamics as the headlinging bout.

While the ground game strongly favors Taira, the standup isn’t so lopsided that Taira can’t compete long enough to find openings. His standup offense is actually impressive, though his defense is a liability. Again, Van will be the better striker but doesn’t have clear walkoff power that would pose too much risk at the beginning of rounds.

Instead of getting too cute here, the models see value on Taira to implement his gameplan eventually, while the price is more affordable than for other wrestlers on the card.

Best bet: Taira to win

Alexander Volkov (-190) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+145)

(Fightnomics)

These heavyweights show up on the stat sheet as a coin flip, despite better experience nudging Volkov to the favorite. But in a striking duel of big men, experience isn’t always an advantage.

This will likely remain standing for extended periods, with both men throwing a barrage of jabs back and forth. Volkov likes to mix in kicks, utilizing his huge frame at long range, while Cortes-Acosta has the better power in return. Add in slightly better strike avoidance by Cortes-Acosta and less cumulative career damage, and we’re left with plus money value on a coin flip matchup.

Best bet: Value play on Cortes-Acosta to win

Sean Brady (-190) vs. Joaquin Buckley(+145)

(Fightnomics)

You know I like to back grapplers against strikers, but this one is a rare instance when the price isn’t showing value. Perhaps it’s the solid takedown defense of Buckley combined with his long reach and heavy hands. Or perhaps we now know what happens when Brady doesn’t land a takedown; he landed none in his two UFC losses and lost both fights by TKO.

If Brady gets him down early, Buckley will have problems and lose at least the round. But if he can keep it in open water long enough to unleash his power, he has a good striker’s chance. Statistically, this is a pass on the sides, depending on where prices land. But a small play at +250 for an upset TKO is tempting.

Best bet: Dog or pass. Small play on Buckley by TKO

King Green (-300) vs. Jeremy Stephens(+250)

(Fightnomics)

My first reaction to this pairing was wondering whether these two had faced each other before. Odds were in my favor, given they have a combined 63 UFC fights largely over the same time frame. And yet, they've never faced off until now. Should the fight last more than 2.5 minutes, they will have 12 hours of combined Octagon time!

But longevity hasn’t favored Stephens lately. He washed out of the UFC after a long losing streak and hasn’t had a UFC win since 2018, but he is now back in the organization. However, he’s still fun to watch, and his all-or-nothing fighting style can be seen easily in the stats. With 18 career knockdowns and a 5.5% knockdown rate, he’s a threat no matter who he faces.

And that’s probably why Green is a heavy favorite, because his skill seems to be sniping from the outside. He’s still damaged, and both men are hovering at 40 years old, but Green still appears to hold his own at a high level. It’s chalky, but look for him to evade and out-point Stephens.

Best bet: Green to win