Big Ten post-spring overreactions: Indiana thrives without Fernando Mendoza, West Coast crashes CFP party

Indiana

Fernando Mendoza was a system QB, and Josh Hoover will be just as good: Credit Tom Fornelli for pointing out earlier this spring that this take was gaining traction. Most Indiana fans will tell you it's a stretch and that it's more about the quarterbacks Curt Cignetti brings in, but maybe there's some evidence. Mendoza set the program record with 41 touchdown passes last season. You know who held that record before him? Kurtis Rourke, with 29. Josh Hoover looks like exactly the type of quarterback built to step in and keep things going.

[With a wink, Curt Cignetti shrugs off Sonny Dykes' criticism of new Indiana QB Josh Hoover

Shehan Jeyarajah

Iowa

The defense will be strong again, even after losing everyone: Phil Parker has built a reputation that essentially insulates Iowa from regression on that side of the ball. Since 2014, Iowa hasn't finished outside the top 20 in scoring defense. Not once. The context for 2026 might be more extreme than usual, with just three returning starters and no Power Four defense entering the season with fewer career FBS snaps (4,995) on its roster. But that's kind of been the story before, and Parker keeps finding a way. At some point, you just stop betting against the guy.

Maryland

Our returning production should guarantee improvement: In addition to bringing back the second-most starters (14) in the FBS, the Terps return 65% of their total snaps from last season, including 59% on offense (14th nationally) and 70% on defense (3rd), which is exactly the type of profile that fuels genuine optimism about a step forward. And after back-to-back 4-8 seasons with just two Big Ten wins combined, Mike Locksley desperately needs that step to arrive. Maryland was able to retain much of its top young talent, including quarterback Malik Washington, who broke two school freshman records with 2,963 yards on 273 completions last season.

Michigan

We're automatically a CFP contender because Kyle Whittingham is in charge: The spring game raised some eyebrows as Bryce Underwood was 3-for-9 for 22 yards with two sacks, but Whittingham made clear that means nothing, and Underwood is his guy. The bigger case for optimism is on the other side of the ball. Whittingham has repeatedly said this spring that the defensive line will be the strength of this team, and he spent 22 years at Utah turning defensive units into program identities. If he can do the same in Ann Arbor, the CFP conversation isn't crazy.

Michigan State

We have a coach we can trust: The Spartans have had just one good season in the six years since Mark Dantonio retired. The Mel Tucker era ended in sexual harassment accusations, and the Jonathan Smith tenure never really generated much long-term traction. That's why Michigan State turned to Pat Fitzgerald, a coach known for maximizing talent limitations and building physical, competitive teams in the Big Ten. His familiarity with the league, even after time away, has created a genuine sense of stability and direction that the program hasn't had in years.

Minnesota

Mo Ibrahim's hiring means the run game is finally back: The return of the program's all-time leading rusher as running backs coach is exactly the kind of hire that can reverse a troubling trend. The run game has been in steady decline since Ibrahim last carried the ball in 2022, bottoming out at 3.57 yards per carry last season, tied for 116th in the FBS. Who better to fix it than the guy who rushed for 1,000 yards in three different seasons and knows exactly what this offense is capable of?

Nebraska

We'll be better off without Dylan Raiola: His departure stung after being heralded as the face of the program's rebuild under Matt Rhule, but the revisionist take building in Lincoln is that it became too much about him. Raiola led the Huskers to consecutive winning seasons but never quite lived up to the hype. The split felt mutual, even though he left without so much as a thank-you (not that he owed anyone one). Enter Anthony Colandrea, a quarterback who can extend plays with his legs and stress defenses off-schedule, which is exactly what Dana Holgorsen has always needed to be the play-caller he wants to be.

Northwestern

Chip Kelly instantly transforms our offense: The new stadium, the splashy OC hire and identity overhaul, Northwestern is clearly trying to reinvent itself beyond the grind-it-out image that defined the Pat Fitzgerald era and has largely carried into David Braun's tenure. Kelly is a legitimate offensive mind, and the optimism is understandable. But his most dynamic units -- those Oregon teams and the 2024 Ohio State national championship squad -- were built on elite athletes at the skill positions. Northwestern is still Northwestern. A realistic first step is finishing outside the bottom five in Big Ten scoring offense for the first time since 2017.

Ohio State

Arthur Smith taking over playcalling lets Ryan Day be the CEO he needs to be: The belief in Columbus is that Day has always been better as a program manager than a playcaller, and handing the offense to a 17-year NFL veteran lets him operate that way. It worked before; Chip Kelly handled playcalling in 2024 when Ohio State won a national championship. Smith has called plays in the NFL for over a decade, developed Pro Bowl quarterbacks and coordinated a playoff offense with the Pittsburgh Steelers last season. Heisman Trophy contenders Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith are two pieces any coordinator in the country would want to work with.

Oregon

This is the year we finally win a national championship: No program has knocked on the door more consistently without breaking through. Dan Lanning is 48-8 in four seasons and reached the CFP in back-to-back years, losing to the eventual national champion both times. Now, Dante Moore is back after turning down a projected first-round pick, the defense returns eight starters (tied for most in the FBS) and the roster is arguably as complete as any Lanning has had in Eugene. The window doesn't open any further.

Penn State

Matt Campbell was the right hire all along: The 58-day coaching search was a mess. Penn State missed on several top candidates before pulling Matt Campbell away from Iowa State. He went 72-55 at one of the historically most futile programs in college football, producing 16 NFL Draft picks largely on three-star rosters. Give him Penn State's facilities, budget and recruiting footprint, and the argument that Penn State accidentally stumbled into a franchise-altering hire after one of the sport's most bungled searches isn't hard to make.

Purdue

We're going to win a Big Ten game (or two) this year: Purdue hasn't won a conference game in back-to-back seasons, with the last coming against rival Indiana on Nov. 25, 2023. Barry Odom has said publicly he knows 2026 is the year Purdue gets back to its winning ways. The roster is a little bit more stable than it was a year ago, when the Boilermakers welcomed 82 newcomers. The schedule, though, offers limited opportunities to end that losing streak. The best chances at a Big Ten win might not come until Maryland and Wisconsin visit in November.

Rutgers

**Antwan Raymond can win the Doak Walker Award:**No conference has produced more Doak Walker winners than the Big Ten, but the league hasn't had a winner since Kenneth Walker in 2021, matching its longest drought since 2004-07. Raymond rushed for 1,241 yards and 15 touchdowns in his first year as a starter, was a Doak Walker semifinalist, and his own position coach believes there's still meat on the bone and has another level he hasn't tapped into yet. With only 18 receptions for 225 yards, his pass-catching ability is an area that could genuinely expand in 2026, adding a dimension that defenses haven't had to account for.

UCLA

Bob Chesney is already building a future CFP contender: The program averaged 50th nationally in recruiting over the last eight cycles -- a number that was never going to cut it in the Pac-12, let alone the Big Ten. Chesney is already changing that. UCLA sits No. 3 in the 2027 recruiting cycle, the first class fully under his watch, and is beating out Big Ten and SEC powers for prospects. The concern is that recruiting momentum is fragile. Chesney hasn't coached a game yet, and a slow start in 2026 could unravel a class that's still months from signing day. However, the signs of life are already there, and for a program that seemingly had none just a few months ago, that's not a small thing.

USC

This is finally the year we reach the CFP: Five years into the Lincoln Riley era, and USC has yet to reach the playoff. But the 2026 roster is the best argument yet that this is the year that changes. The Trojans lead the nation with 17 returning starters built around veteran quarterback Jayden Maiava, backed by the No. 1 recruiting class in the country that could produce several immediate contributors. Even Riley himself said this is the "most complete" roster the Trojans have had under his watch. Perhaps the only thing standing in the way is the brutal schedule.

Washington

The offseason drama is behind us, and Demond Williams Jr. is locked in: The 48-hour saga in January was ugly. Williams signed a $4.5 million contract to return, announced he was entering the transfer portal days later to chase a better deal elsewhere, got his agents fired, faced legal threats from Washington and the Big Ten, only to reverse course and announce he was staying in Seattle after all. Jedd Fisch said publicly that they needed to repair relationships and regain trust. Williams is talented enough to make everyone forget it ever happened. Whether the locker room does is a different question.

Wisconsin

Our added NIL investment finally unlocks what Luke Fickell is capable of: The case for keeping Fickell was that Wisconsin hadn't given him what he needed to compete in the modern era, and the administration finally admitted it. Even after consecutive losing seasons for the first time in more than 30 years, the Badgers gave Fickell more resources and the infrastructure to actually recruit in the NIL arms race. Fickell added 33 portal players, retooled the coaching staff and has a significantly more manageable schedule in 2026. This should be a bounce-back season.