Bigger Isn’t Better

The traditional narrative about college football is that it had the Most Important Regular Season of any sport because so few teams earned a title shot. For most of the sport’s history, a team had almost no margin for error if it wanted to fulfill its greatest ambitions. Now, with 24 spots, mulligans for the bluebloods will abound. Losing to a rival may sting, but it won’t derail a season like it once did. Of course, thanks to NIL and more player freedom, a dark horse may break through — Indiana is the reigning champion, after all — but more chances for established powers with better player development systems and better prep recruiting will likely serve to consolidate titles in the same hands.

I’m not saying we have to stuff the genie all the way back in the bottle, but 12 playoff spots is enough. Sometimes we need a postseason without Ohio State, Alabama, and even GASP Georgia in it for the games to have stakes.

It’s Not About Inclusion

I think most people are cynical enough about the motives of college football leadership to know that the expanded playoff isn’t designed to give the G6 more opportunities. But take a look at the final CFP rankings from last year. There are only three G6 teams on the list, with two of them ranked below an 8-4 Iowa team despite having fewer losses. Plus, the committee has already implemented rule changes to prevent two G6 teams from ever making the 12-team field again after the debacle with Duke winning and ACC and Notre Dame getting left out last year.

Sankey and Petitti aren’t going to advocate for a bigger playoff so they can see Navy or East Carolina vying for a championship. In a 24-team field, spots 18 through 24 are primarily going to an 8-4 Mizzou team. What you’re going to get is the Reliaquest Bowl rebranded as a playoff game.

The Expanded Playoff Won’t Solve Coach Firings/Buyouts

One of the reasons I’m most certain that expansion is coming is because coaches are consolidating around the idea. That’s probably because they believe a bigger playoff means better job security. Coaches can point to making the playoff field as evidence of success for their program to engender goodwill and keep themselves employed.

Well, coaches, I have bad news for you. When you take this job, you’re holding a wolf by the ears. What the boosters want is a championship, not making the field, and they behave as responsibly with their money as a sailor on shore leave. Gone are the days where a Mark Richt-type will get a decade-plus to deliver a national title.

Do you think I’m wrong about this? Well, let’s look at some recent trends. Gus Malzahn set a record with a buyout of just over $21 million when Auburn fired him at the end of the Covid season in 2020. That’s after he nearly won a national championship in his first year and almost made the playoff again in 2017 to say nothing of his work as OC there prior to his head coaching stint. Since then, Jimbo Fisher, Brian Kelly, James Franklin, and Mark Stoops have all eclipsed that total. Fisher has a national championship, Kelly is the winningest coach in the history of one of college football’s legacy programs, Franklin is the second-winningest coach in Penn State history, and Stoops is the winngest coach in Kentucky history. But none of them won a title at that current school, and that’s what mattered.

One team out of 138 can win a championship each year. Everybody else is in danger of the pink slip, and making the tournament as a 15 seed isn’t going to save you for long.

The Controversy Won’t Go Away

After last season ended with a stupid, engineered controversy, I wrote about how further expansion wouldn’t solve the problem. There is no way to objectively determine a champion in a sport with this bizarre structure. That’s the whole point! If anything, expanding the playoff will just make the arguments worse and more annoying.

I don’t know what it will take to get me to stop watching college football, but I have a feeling I’m going to find out.