Braves seem poised to coast into the playoffs as MLB's first team to 30 wins

Bryce Elder, one of the game's least effective starters from 2024-25, leveled up thanks to a new cutter and heavy emphasis on his slider. Spencer Strider returned earlier this month and looks like vintage Spencer Strider. Chris Sale is Chris Sale. The rotation could have crumbled after all those injuries. Instead, it's been among the very best starting staffs in baseball.

The Braves lead baseball with 5.51 runs per game and that's without getting much from Austin Riley (86 OPS+) and not as much as usual from Ronald Acuña Jr. (113 OPS+) before his hamstring injury. 2025 Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin is now a 2026 MVP candidate. Matt Olson provides excellence at the plate and in the field as he marches up the consecutive games played list.

Matt Olson is playing his 823rd consecutive game today, dating to 5/2/21, the 10th-longest streak in MLB history

[image or embed]

— Sarah Langs (@slangsonsports.bsky.social) May 10, 2026 at 4:34 PM

All things considered, the Braves have the best possible offense. They have the fourth-lowest team strikeout rate (20.5%) and also the third-highest barrel rate (9.9%). That means they put the ball in play a lot and they hit the ball hard in the air consistently. It is the best of both worlds. Lots of contact and lots of extra-base damage, and it'll get better once Acuña returns.

There is a long way to go in a long season, but the Braves have banked a lot of wins. Going 60-59 the rest of the way gets them to 90 wins and would almost assure them of a postseason spot. Going 65-54 gets them to 95 wins and likely locks in the NL East title and a Wild Card Series bye. Look how much they've improved their various postseason odds, per FanGraphs:

With all due respect to the Miami Marlins and surprisingly competent Washington Nationals, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies were Atlanta's biggest NL East competition coming into 2026, and both started so poorly while the Braves started so well that the division race feels over. It's not over -- there are still more than 110 games to play -- but the Braves have an enormous head start.

Rotation and overall pitching health is the single biggest threat to Atlanta's 2026. They're already down three starters and can't really afford to lose anyone else long-term. Every team needs its pitchers to stay healthy (duh), but the Braves are especially vulnerable wth Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver, and Waldrep already out. Keeping guys on the field is priority No. 1 now.

Otherwise, the Braves have all the ingredients needed to contend for the World Series. They have a legitimate ace in Sale, the offense has a special contact/power blend, and Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias are a dynamite 1-2 punch in the bullpen. If they manage to stay healthy throughout the summer, the Braves will be a force to be reckoned with in October.