The Denver Broncos will face a challenging schedule in the upcoming NFL season, but they are ranked with the 11th easiest strength of schedule based on expected win totals. Their home games against strong teams may provide an advantage.
The Denver Broncos have the 11th easiest strength of schedule for the 2026 NFL season based on expected win totals.
The Broncos will play AFC West teams twice and host the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Warren Sharp ranks the Broncos' schedule as the 11th easiest in the NFL, emphasizing that past season records are not reliable indicators of future performance.
Factors include roster changes, coaching staff adjustments, player development, and the small sample size of the 17-game season, which can lead to unpredictable outcomes.
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Basing strength of schedule on last yearâs records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient.
NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development.
Additionally, the NFLâs 17-game season is a small sample size.
Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.
These factors make prior season records a poor indicator of future performance.
Statistical analysis supports this.
From 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a teamâs actual SOS was explained by opponentsâ prior-year records, and this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years. The predicted win total strength of schedule has actually shown more accuracy than the previous yearsâ results. He goes on to explain why in the link above. However, if we use the standard strength of schedule models based on the previous yearsâ results then Denverâs ranking doesnât change all that much jumping to 15th â or middle of the road â with a .512 opponent win percentage. What do you think of the Broncos strength of schedule? I feel like its going to be tough regardless, but at least they are playing the teams I think are playoff contenders at home rather than on the road.