Cade Cavalli showing signs of the pitcher Washington Nationals fans dreamed of

TL;DR

Cade Cavalli is showing promising signs as a top pitcher for the Washington Nationals, recently achieving impressive stats in his last two starts. His strikeout rate has increased significantly, and he appears to be regaining his form after injuries.

Key points

Cade Cavalli is a 2020 1st round pick for the Nationals.
He struggled with injuries but has recently shown improvement.
Cavalli's strikeout rate has increased significantly in 2026.
He has a FIP of 2.82, indicating better performance than his ERA.
Cavalli is viewed as a potential future star for the Nationals.

Cade CavalliWashington NationalsAtlanta BravesNew York Mets

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 23: Cade Cavalli #24 of the Washington Nationals pitches against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park on April 23, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images For much of his professional career, Cade Cavalli was somewhat of a myth to Nationals fans. A 2020 1st round pick with loads of upside, blazing his way through the minor leagues with electrifying stuff. He got a taste of the bigs in 2022, but an elbow injury during 2023 Spring Training kept him out of the spotlight and the field for the following 2+ seasons. He fought his way back to Washington at the back end of 2025, posting decent statistics, but looking far from the prospect he once was. Many labeled him as a potential breakout candidate in 2026, but he struggled with putting hitters away in his first few outings. However, at long last, Nats fans’ once-promised frontline starter may be knocking on the door. Definite conclusions can’t be fully drawn from a 2-game sample, but Cavalli seems to have unlocked something. In appearances against the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, the righty threw a combined 11.0 innings, allowed just 4 total runs, and struck out 10 hitters in back-to-back starts, something that has only been done by 4 other arms in Nationals’ history. The stuff is ticking up, and Cavalli has simply looked in complete control of the game for much of the time. His strikeout rate has climbed from 18% in 2025 to to 27% in 2026, his HardHit% has dropped from 41% to 36%, and his Expected Batting Average Against has been lowered from .259 to .246. Digging even deeper, his 3.82 ERA, which already registers as a decent mark, may also be discrediting just how effective Cavalli has become. To say that he’s gotten unlucky so far would be an understatement. His FIP is all the way down to a 2.82, an entire run below his ERA, and his BABIP has climbed to over .400, a clear sign that positive regression is on the horizon. Most of the issues that plagued the beginning of his 2026 campaign stemmed from not being able to miss bats and put away hitters. In the same fashion as just about every other one of his metrics, that has changed for the better, including during his latest start against the Mets, where he generated 18 whiffs, finishing 2nd among MLB starting pitchers in that regard on April 29th. His 5-pitch mix has found a blend of timing, movement, and command that has given opposing lineups major struggles recently. If the underlying data doesn’t do it for you, just turn on his next start, because he certainly passes the eye test. Putting it bluntly, Cavalli looks like the future of the Nationals’ rotation. With and James Wood playing like the true backbone of their offense for the foreseeable future, it’s about time that the pitching staff produced a star of their own. For all intents and purposes, Nats fans, Cade Cavalli is your guy, and it’s time to embrace him.

Q&A

What are Cade Cavalli's recent pitching statistics for the Nationals?

Cade Cavalli has thrown 11.0 innings in his last two starts, allowing only 4 runs and striking out 10 hitters.

How has Cade Cavalli's performance changed in 2026 compared to 2025?

In 2026, Cavalli's strikeout rate increased from 18% to 27%, and his HardHit% decreased from 41% to 36%.

What does Cade Cavalli's FIP indicate about his performance?

Cade Cavalli's FIP is 2.82, suggesting he has been more effective than his 3.82 ERA indicates, pointing to potential positive regression.

Why is Cade Cavalli considered a future star for the Nationals?

Cade Cavalli is seen as a future star due to his recent improvements, effective pitch mix, and the ability to dominate hitters, as evidenced by his performance metrics.