The Chicago Blackhawks will select fourth in the 2026 NHL Draft after disappointing lottery results. This outcome may result in them missing top prospects Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg.
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Could Blackhawks Still Land Stenberg in 2026 NHL Draft?
The results from the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday were vastly disappointing for Chicago Blackhawks fans, even if moving down was always the most possible outcome. Entering the Draft Lottery, the Blackhawks had a 27.6% chance of getting the top overall pick or staying put at No. 2, and a 72.4% chance of dropping to third or fourth.
The ping pong balls didnāt get picked in their favor, with the results unveiling that the Blackhawks will be on the clock at No. 4 in the 2026 NHL Draft, which will be held Jun. 26-27 from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. That very well could mean missing out on both Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg, the top two forwards in the class, despite finishing as a bottom-three team in hockey once again. Thatās a tough pill to swallow.
However, since the NHL Draft Lottery concluded, several insiders/analysts from notable publications have released their respective Mock Drafts, and it doesnāt seem too farfetched for Stenberg to slide out of the top three.
Craig Button from TSN dropped his 2026 NHL Mock Draft almost immediately following the Lottery, and he projected the Blackhawks to select the Swedish forward with the fourth pick. Button unsurprisingly had the Toronto Maple Leafs drafting McKenna, while the San Jose Sharks went with defenseman Chase Reid. The Vancouver Canucks picked Caleb Malhotra with the third pick, as his stock has skyrocketed in recent weeks.
Button wasnāt the only one to have the Blackhawks drafting Stenberg, as Sam Cosentino from Sportsnet did the same. Cosentino also had the Maple Leafs selecting McKenna at No. 1, the Sharks drafting Reid at No. 2, and the Canucks taking Malhotra at No. 3.
Hereās what Cosentino had to say about the Blackhawks getting Stenberg at No. 4:
āThere will be some familiarity there with Anton Frondell and the Hawks continue to add to their prospect pool at the forward position. Stenberg put up historic numbers in the SHL and was the best player at the 2026 World Juniors, helping Sweden win just their second gold medal since 1981.ā
The Blackhawks had a 27.6% chance of getting the top pick or staying at No. 2, and a 72.4% chance of dropping to third or fourth.
The 2026 NHL Draft will be held on June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York.
The Blackhawks may miss out on top forwards Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg due to their fourth overall pick.
Yes, several analysts suggest it may not be farfetched for Ivar Stenberg to slide out of the top three in the upcoming draft.
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Steven Ellis from Daily Faceoff and The Athleticās Staff werenāt as optimistic that Stenberg falls into the Blackhawks lap, as both Mock Drafts had him unavailable by the time the Blackhawks are picking. Ellis still had McKenna going No. 1 to the Leafs and Malhotra at No. 3, but he projected the Sharks to select Stenberg with the second overall pick.
The Athletic has the draft sorting out the same way, with McKenna, Stenberg, and Malhotra, three forwards, being the first three players off the board. While Ellis mocked the Blackhawks to draft Reid with the fourth overall pick, Scott Powers had Carson Carels as GM Kyle Davidsonās ultimate selection.
Should Stenberg no longer be available for the Blackhawks, they will have a fascinating choice at No. 4 between Reid, Carels, plus two other defensemen, Keaton Verhoff and Alberts Smits.
Reid, a 6-foot-2, 190-pound right-handed blue-liner, recorded 48 points (18G, 30A) in 45 games for the Ontario Hockey Leagueās Soo Greyhounds this past season. Reid was also a member of the United Statesā 2026 U20 World Junior Championship roster, where he tallied two goals and two assists for four points in five appearances. Heās committed to Michigan State University for the 2026-27 season, where heāll be teammates with Blackhawks prospect Mason West.
Carels, a 6-foot-2, 195-pound left-handed defenseman, played for the Prince George Cougars in the Western Hockey League this season, recording 73 points (20G, 53A) in 58 games. Like Reid, Carels also represented his country at the 2026 World Junior Championship, tallying one assist in five games for Team Canada. The 17-year-old also played for Canada at the 2025 U18 WJC, scoring one goal in seven games.
Going back to the beginning of the year, Verhoff was projected to be the first defenseman off the board in the 2026 NHL Draft. The 6-foot-4, 212-pound right-hander still has a chance to do so, but itās not as likely as it once was. Still, Verhoff had a fine freshman season of college hockey with North Dakota, picking up 20 points (6G, 14A) in 36 apperances. Also still only 17, Verhoff played for Canada at both the U18 and U20 World Juniors this winter. He recorded four assists in five games in both tournaments.
Unlike the other three, Smits spent the 2025-26 season already playing professional hockey, as he appeared in 38 games for Jukurit in Finlandās Liiga, the countryās top professional league. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound left-handed defenseman registered six goals and seven assists for 13 points against grown men, while also handling his own defensively. Smits represented Latvia at the U20 World Junior Championship this past winter, where he had five points (1G, 4A) in as many games while serving as an alternate captain. Just a few weeks later, he was selected to play for Latvia at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan, earning two assists in four games.
Whether Stenberg will still be available or not for the Blackhawks is out of Davidsonās hands, but there seems to be a better chance of that than initially anticipated. Regardless of how the board shakes out, the Blackhawks will come out of the 2026 NHL Draft with another high-end prospect to add to an already stacked pipeline. But thereās no denying the potential of adding Stenberg holds much more luster than one of the four defensemen.
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