Cubs BCB After Dark: Is Nico Hoerner’s power surge for real?

Q: How many home runs has Nico Hoerner hit this season?

Nico Hoerner has hit four home runs in just 23 games this season.

Q: What is Nico Hoerner's home run pace for the current season?

Nico Hoerner is on pace to hit 28 home runs this season based on his current performance.

Q: How does Nico Hoerner's current season compare to his past seasons?

In previous seasons, Hoerner never hit more than ten home runs, while this season he has already hit four in April alone.

Q: What factors contribute to Nico Hoerner's power surge this season?

Hoerner's power surge is attributed to his improved hitting skills and the ability to make hard contact, despite Wrigley Field typically favoring pitchers.

Apr 21, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner (2) reacts after scoring during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images It’s Wednesday evening here at *BCB After Dark: the hippest hot spot for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad.* Come on in and sit with us for a while. We can always find room for another friendly face. There’s no cover charge tonight. We still have a few tables available. The hostess will seat you now. Bring your own beverage. *BCB After Dark* is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon. The Cubs won their eighth-straight game tonight, 7-2 over the Phillies. First Cubs game to ever end on an ABS challenge as well. I think this team might be good. Last night I asked you if manager Craig Counsell should be giving more at-bats against left-handers to rookie Moisés Ballesteros. I swear I wasn’t the person who asked that very question to Counsell last night and got a snarky answer back. (*The Athletic* sub. req.) In any case, 75 percent of you want to see Mo Baller get more chances to hit against lefties. Here’s the part where we listen to jazz and talk movies. You can skip ahead if you want. We’re continuing our look at Chicago jazz in anticipation of International Jazz Day, hosted in the Second City on April 30. We’ve got a young (-ish) Chicagoan in vibraphonist Joel Ross. (Thirty is practically a baby in jazz.) This is from his brand-new album *Gospel Music* and is titled “Wisdom is Eternal (For Barry Harris).” Ross is joined here by saxophonists Josh Johnson (alto) and Maria Grand (tenor), Jeremy Corren on piano, Kanoa Mendenhall is the bassist and Jeremy Dutton plays the drums. I don’t have a movie to write about tonight, but some of you in the comments yesterday wanted to talk about *Oklahoma!*, so I thought I’d give you the chance to tell us about your favorite musicals. I’ll say off the bat that *Oklahoma!* is not one of my favorites. I don’t begrudge those who like it and I certainly don’t think it’s a poorly-made film or musical. It’s just not to my tastes. If it’s something that appeals to you, great. It’s very good at whatever it is that it does and you’ll never hear a bad word about Shirley Jones out of my lips. I’ve said before that my favorite musicals are the works of Jacques Demy with music by Michel Legrand: *The Umbrellas of Cherbourg* and *The Young Girls of Rochefort.* I’m also a big fan of the Busby Berkeley trio from the early-thirties: *42nd Street, Gold Diggers of 1933* and *Footlight Parade.* Maybe they are not traditional musicals in that none of the songs are non-diegetic—that is, everyone who is signing is singing because they’re on a stage. I’ve always had a soft spot in my heart for *My Fair Lady*. The Judy Garland/James Mason version of *A Star is Born* is terrific too. I am also a huge fan of the television show *Crazy Ex-Girlfriend*, which may be the only musical television program that actually worked. That they were able to get two songs a week (and make them good) into a 47-minute show 13 times a year was incredible. It’s probably the best show you’ve never watched and yes, I admit the title scared some people off. They address that in the first season theme song. So tell us which musicals get you tapping your toes. Welcome back to everyone who skips the music and the movies. There’s no doubt that second baseman Nico Hoerner has been the most valuable Cub so far this season. In fact, according to both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, Nico Hoerner has been the most valuable player in the National League so far this young season. We all know about Hoerner’s skills. He’s a Gold Glove defender at second base. He makes a lot of hard contact and rarely swings and misses. He hits for a high batting average and draws an average number of walks, which gives him an above-average on-base percentage. He’s also an elite baserunner who can steal around 30 to 40 bases a year. What’s different this year is that Hoerner is hitting for power. It’s a small sample size to be sure, but Hoerner has four home runs over just 23 games. It’s always dangerous to extrapolate out from a small sample, but that’s a 28 home run pace. What makes that more impressive is that it’s all been done in April, where Wrigley Field usually plays like a pitcher’s park. Hoerner has never hit more than ten home runs in a season, but this power surge isn’t just isolated to this year. As you probably know, Hoerner had no home runs last year through the Cubs’ first 78 games. Then he hit seven over the final 84. So you can really trace this increase in power to mid-season of last year. So what is Hoerner doing differently? He’s really not hitting the ball any harder or making any more contact. His swing rate is down a bit, which is leading to more walks and more strikeouts, but the increase strikeouts are all looking. His swinging strikeout rate is as low as ever. What Hoerner is doing is hitting the ball more in the air and pulling the ball more. Maybe that’s a result of him being more selective at what pitches he swings at. Maybe it’s just random. But Hoerner’s ground ball rate last year was 45.3 percent and this year it’s down to 33.7. His fly ball rate has increased from 34.3 percent to 41 and his line drive rate is up to 25.3 percent from 20 percent. His pull rate has gone from 37.9 percent to 42.2 and his opposite field rate has dropped from 25.5 percent to 20.5 percent. So that would explain some of the increase in home runs. On the other hand, it could just be statistical noise. Hoerner’s career home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is 5.1%. This year, that’s jumped up to 11.8 percent. That’s greater than Happ’s career numbers and only slightly below ’s. Statcast gives Hoerner’s “expected” home run total at 2.5, which is a bit less than the four he has now. So do you buy into Hoerner’s power surge? I don’t think anyone thinks he’s turning into and his April stats certainly aren’t at slugger levels. But they are numbers that could easily lead to 20 home runs a year and maybe more. On the other hand, they could just be a hot streak and Hoerner reverts to the 7 to 10 home runs a year that he normally hits. Thanks for stopping by tonight and all week. A special thanks goes out to everyone who votes and comments. Please get home safely. Tell us if you need us to call a ride for you. Tell your friends about us. Recycle any cans and bottles. And join us again next week for more *BCB After Dark.*

Cubs BCB After Dark: Is Nico Hoerner’s power surge for real?

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