Dave Allen vs Filip Hrgovic prediction: Who will win and how

He came back in 2024 for two more club-level wins, easy victories against very low-level opposition. Then he was matched with Johnny Fisher, a “Dave Allen” sort of fighter in that he’s likable, affable, and popular despite pretty obvious flaws that will keep him well short of world level status. He was, frankly, robbed in a split decision loss to Fisher in December 2024 in Riyadh, then stopped Fisher in the fifth round of a rematch five months later in London.

Once again, years after the win over Browne, Allen had a little momentum. He fought Arslanbek Makhmudov, a fringe contender if you’re being somewhat generous, and lost clearly over 12 rounds last October in Sheffield. Most recently, he returned in February for another of his club-level wins, and now he has another notable fight.

Filip Hrgovic’s recent form

The 33-year-old Hrgovic (19-1, 14 KO) was a good amateur for Croatia, winning gold at the 2015 European Championships and bronze at the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, where he lost a tight decision to Tony Yoka in the semifinal round.

As a professional, you could argue Hrgovic has been a little disappointing, but he hasn’t been, like, Audley Harrison or David Price or, well, Yoka-level “disappointing.” He was more built for the pro game than Audley or Yoka, who both won gold medals, and he’s just better than Price was.

Hrgovic turned pro at 25 and it wasn’t until he was 30 that he took his first serious professional challenge, when he scored a debated win over Zhilei Zhang in 2022, coming off the canvas early to get the win on points over 12 rounds. He’s 4-1 since then, but none of the wins have exactly blown anyone’s doors off, though they’ve all been solid, other than Mark De Mori, who has one of modern boxing’s most absurdly empty, gaudy win-loss records. (That win, actually, is somewhat similar to Allen’s over Lucas Browne, just nobody made a big deal of it and it’s not so inspiring when an Olympic bronze medalist crushes a creaky, aging Aussie.)

The loss to Dubois doesn’t much matter here, in one sense. Dubois is a lot better and more dangerous than Dave Allen. But the way it happened could be relevant.

Who will win Allen vs Hrgovic?

Allen has fought good fighters many times. It generally has not gone well for him.

• He lost to Dillian Whyte by a near shutout decision in 2016.
• Later that same year, Luis Ortiz stopped him in seven.
• Olympic gold medalist Tony Yoka, in Yoka’s fifth pro fight, stopped Allen in the 10th round in 2018.
• And then there’s Price, Clarke, and Makhmudov.

What are his best wins? Browne. Fisher. And probably Nick Webb way back in 2018. (Webb, as a side note and excuse to send you over to our Chukhadzhian vs Donovan coverage, will be fighting today in Germany.)

Being totally real and just analyzing the results purely as the results and not enjoyable moments in watching boxing, it’s not the resume of a contender. And Allen says all the time, clearly, that he knows he’s not really a contender.

Allen is easy to see as an inconsistent performer. But much of that comes down to the levels of his opponents. It’s actually fairly consistent that when he steps up against more talented opposition, he loses.

Hrgovic is perhaps not a great fighter, by which we’d mean he’s not truly elite level. But he’s very good, at the least. More accurately, you might say his style and performances do not inspire. He’s got two decent wins in a row over a faded Joe Joyce, who hung in there for 10 full rounds, and David Adeleye, who was outclassed. Daniel Dubois stopped him, but Daniel Dubois is a pretty punishing guy, too.

Allen reckons that if he can make Hrgovic fight at a faster pace than he wants, he could get the Croatian huffing and puffing by the middle rounds. From there, he says, “If I hit him, I’ll win. If I don’t, I’ll probably lose on points.”

I think overall that Allen’s analysis of the matchup is pretty spot-on. Dave’s best attributes at this level are, indeed, being a little bit tricky, a little bit annoying to fight, and tough to hit clean. He also does have a good chin and is tough, even if he downplays those attributes a bit. But if we’re talking about actually scoring the upset and winning this fight, as much as he may bristle at fans or observers suggesting it — and I understand his viewpoint and respect it — he will have to let his hands go. It can’t be all eating up clock and making Hrgovic miss, because he just won’t win the fight that way. He won’t win rounds, and he won’t give himself the shot at the big punch that could change the outcome.

Even if Hrgovic wins and the scores are wide or he stops Allen later on, it won’t truly be as easy as it seems or looks when you tally up the scores. That will come about because Hrgovic worked smart and made it play out that way.

Allen says he’s the best he’s ever been. Hrgovic, we can guess, will be exactly as Hrgovic has been for some time now. That makes Hrgovic a big, big ask for even the best Allen we’ve ever seen. I honestly don’t think it’s impossible for Dave to win this fight. Hrgovic has lulls, he makes some mistakes, and Allen can punch. If he lets his hands go (sorry, Dave) at the right time, yeah, he can shock Hrgovic and most of the world.

I just don’t think it’ll happen. Smart money’s on “El Animal,” and I’m sticking with the smart money on this one. But as usual, admittedly, I’m like many and rooting for Dave Allen.

Prediction: Filip Hrgovic by unanimous decision