Dolphins face one of the hardest schedules in 2026

TL;DR

The Miami Dolphins are entering a full rebuild in 2026 with the second-hardest schedule in the NFL. The team faces significant challenges, including a rookie head coach and general manager, and a projected win total of just 4.5.

Key points

Dolphins entering a full-scale rebuild for the first time since 2019
Team has the 2nd-hardest schedule in the NFL for 2026
Projected win total for Dolphins is 4.5, the lowest in the NFL
Dolphins had the 5th-easiest schedule in 2025 but still won only seven games
Team faces significant challenges with a rookie head coach and general manager

Miami DolphinsArizona Cardinals

Miami Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan listens to head coach Jeff Hafley speak during a press conference at the Baptist Health Training Complex in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images) The Miami Dolphins will probably not be very good in 2026. The team is entering a full-scale rebuild for the first time since 2019. The roster is thin in a number of areas, with many key veterans departing via free agency or trades. Couple that with a rookie head coach and rookie general manager, and the organization isn’t exactly set up to succeed next season. If all that wasn’t enough, the Dolphins officially have the 2nd-hardest schedule in the NFL, behind only the Arizona Cardinals. Contrary to popular belief, strength-of-schedule is not calculated by looking at win-loss total from the previous year. Instead, “SOS” is calculated by looking at forecasted win totals by Vegas for all 17 opponents. Of course, this isn’t a perfect science. Teams can outperform expectations, injuries will happen, and coaches will get fired. But Vegas generally takes all this into account, and their projected win totals are often within just one or two games of most teams’ final win total at the end of the season. With that in in mind, if we go back to this time last year, the Dolphins actually had the 5th-easiest schedule on paper. And as per Warren Sharp on X, the Dolphins were still remarkably bad.

Played the 5th- easiest schedule in 2025, won only seven games (two under projected win total of 9.5)
2nd-toughest schedule in 2026, largest increase in schedule difficulty for any team
Played only six teams with winning records last year (3rd-least of any team)
Went 1-5 against playoff teams in 2025

Q&A

What is the Miami Dolphins' projected win total for 2026?

The Miami Dolphins have the lowest projected win total in the NFL for 2026, set at just 4.5 wins.

How does the Dolphins' 2026 schedule compare to other NFL teams?

The Dolphins officially have the second-hardest schedule in the NFL for 2026, behind only the Arizona Cardinals.

What factors contribute to the Dolphins' challenging schedule in 2026?

The Dolphins' schedule difficulty is based on forecasted win totals by Vegas for all 17 opponents, and they are expected to play 13 games against teams with winning records.