Expanding the College Football Playoff to 24 teams is an idea that needs to be eliminated

DECOURCY: Expanding NCAA hoops tourney field invites mediocrity

The risks of more playoff expansion

Let's rewind back to 1994 for a second. Nirvana. Hacky Sacks. Ohio high school football had 16 teams per division in the postseason at that time.

Yes, my high school was one of the 96 schools in the state that made the playoffs during that era  – another piece of information everyone I meet will eventually learn.

The field doubled to 32 teams per division in 1999. That was fine, too. Ohio then added a seventh division and doubled the field again to 64 teams per division in 2021, which meant 448 high schools would play in the football postseason.

That led to a playoff that was both too long and not all that competitive until the later rounds. In some cases, there were opt-outs because of a mismatch. Sound familiar?

Then, the Ohio High School Athletic Association made the right call. The field was reduced to 48 teams per division in 2025. How many playoff formats have contracted?

Expansion was fine, until it wasn't. Does Ohio have the right number now? That's a subject for debate, but 32 felt like the best number. It was neither too exclusive nor too inclusive, and there was no confusion with bye weeks.

Now? Nirvana T-shirts are everywhere. The Hacky Sack is all over Instagram. College football is going through the same expansion debate. Four wasn't enough. The 12-team playoff has some confusion whether the bye is beneficial or not. Why go to 24 teams without trying 16 teams first?

Ryan Day

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Why would CFP expand to 24 teams?

Let's call the College Football Playoff for what it has become. It's a television show – and a good one. The first two years of the 12-team College Football Playoff produced "Ryan Day's Redemption" and "Fernando & Cignetti." Fans tuned in.

Indiana beat Miami 27-21 in the CFP championship game  – a game that drew 30.1 million viewers and was the most-watched championship game since 2014. Expanding the CFP again is more plausible for the networks if it makes enough money to compensate for the potential loss of conference championship games.

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips gave Sporting News the statistical case for expansion in a January interview. In the NFL, 14 of the 32 teams – or 43.8% – get into the NFL playoffs. In college football, 12 of 138 schools – or 8.6% – will make the CFP next season. If you shorten that to Power 4 schools and Notre Dame – 11 of 68 – or 16.1% – make the CFP with the five-highest conference champions rule in effect.

If the playoff expands to 24 teams, then 17.4% of the schools in the FBS will make the postseason and 33.8% of the P4 programs. Is that too much?

Phillips, of course, is making the push for 16 teams. That would have put No. 11 Notre Dame, No. 12 BYU, No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt – schools that had varying levels of legitimate beef last year – in the CFP. I can live with that because there are no bye weeks. Win four games. Win a national championship.

An increase from 16 is better than 24, but I feel like I made the same argument for eight teams instead of 12. If we go straight to 24, then be warned that the following two things will happen:

Selling the 'Hoosier myth'

Just because Indiana went 16-0 last season does not mean everybody – or anybody – can do it in a 24-team format. In time, last year's national championship is going to be attributed more to the greatness of Curt Cignetti – who is now 46-6 in four seasons between James Madison and Indiana – than NIL, the transfer portal or any other explanation for how the Hoosiers went from one of the worst programs in the FBS to one of the greatest national champions in two years.

The talent development with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza for a team that was the only FBS school with at least one pick in every round of the 2026 NFL Draft is almost as mystifying as the Hacky Sack revival this spring.

The best explanation? Indiana was a dominant team disguised as Cinderella. The Hoosiers were favored by 20 or more points in eight games last season, and they covered in five of them. This feels more like a glitch.

Ohio State and Oregon – teams that will be in the mix with Indiana for the Big Ten championship this season – were each favored by 20 or more points seven times last season. They combined to go 9-5 ATS in those games. Indiana will be a Big Ten contender as long as Cignetti is coach, and last year they were one of six to eight teams that were truly good enough to win a national championship.

Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame and Miami are the top of that list to start 2026. A 24-team format is not going to change that number of true national championship contenders much – other than adding more football for TV purposes.

The NFL-like regular season

The argument is November is more fun because more teams are in the College Football Playoff hunt. There are more games that matter because the playoff picture is larger – but it's not a consequence-free proposition.

Oklahoma beat Alabama 23-21 at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Nov. 15 then lost to the Crimson Tide in the first round 34-24 on Dec. 19 in the first round of the CFP.  How would we describe that in NFL terms? Try Rams-Panthers from last season. Nobody remembers the regular-season game.

Rivalry games have a different feel because the consequences for losing are not as severe. Ohio State lost to Michigan 13-10 in 2024 in arguably one of the most-puzzling upsets in the history of The Game. The Buckeyes responded by winning the national title.

Texas A&M lost to Texas 27-17 last season. The Aggies made the CFP, and the Longhorns were left out.

We might not be able to sustain a stand-alone Army-Navy game. Teams could sit players late in the season – which could lead to significant changes in the scheduling of Rivalry Week.

A 24-team format will put teams such as four-loss Iowa and three-loss Georgia Tech in the field. The Hawkeyes did play national-caliber quality teams tough and the Yellow Jackets were fun to watch, but the truth is Iowa could not throw the ball and Georgia Tech couldn't stop anybody late in the season. Are they really playoff teams?

Remember, the NFL will let a team with a losing record into the postseason as long as they win a division – something that has happened four times this century. Is the equivalent of that a five-loss team reaching the CFP? In a 24-team format, that's going to happen, too.

I've always thought the best college football has to offer remains the "The Game of the Century" in the regular season. The three best regular-season football games I have ever watched were No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Florida State in 1993, No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Michigan in 2006 and No. 1 LSU vs. No. 2 Alabama in 2019. I will talk about those three games all the time, too.

I would put those three games up against any NFL regular-season game ever; not to mention most postseason games. We'll still have games like that, but in a 24-team CFP format it will feel more like a good Sunday Night Football game instead of a time-stands-still scenario.

Will a 24-team CFP happen?

There is too much smoke around a 24-team format to think that it won't happen at some point – but I go back to that Ohio high school playoff. When the field doubled from eight to 16 teams per region, the value of the accomplishment changed.

It's now the main barometer for coaching success. Ask James Franklin and Brian Kelly, who were fired from Penn State and LSU last season. The term "self-preservation" is being thrown around, and with good reason. Coaches will be judged by playoff appearances more than anything else if we go to 24.

College football is going to experience that if it expands too much too soon. I understand college football's best play is to make the playoff as compelling as possible. You can get there with 16 teams and the first two rounds on campus – which remains the best expansion plan of all.

Take it from someone who watched it happen at the high-school level and talks about it all the time.

Expansion is fine – until it isn't.