Fantasy baseball hitter targets: Spencer Steer, Casey Schmitt pop on Process+ leaderboard

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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Leaders

Let's start by just looking at the top 20 hitters in Process+ so far this season.

There are not a ton of surprises here, which is a nice way to see that Process+ is a useful stat. Most of the hitters on this list are high-end draft picks or top young hitters, like Sal Stewart and Ben Rice. You're obviously not picking those guys up, but it's a good baseline to suggest that the other hitters in this tier are doing something extremely right.

It was interesting to see both Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto here. As you might have anticipated, both of them had Contact Value scores that were among the lowest in this group, with Murakami putting up by far the lowest. In fact, a Contact Value of 70 is well below the average score of 100. Yet, James Wood and Aaron Judge have a score of 83, so you can be a valuable hitter with poor Contact Value if you make good swing decisions and have elite power, which both Okamoto and Murakami have. Despite the contact issues, they essentially only swing at good pitches, so even if they miss a few, it's the equivalent of other hitters chasing pitches out of the zone, which neither of them does.

Four hitters on here were likely on waiver wires at the start of the season: Miguel Vargas, Alec Burleson, Ryan Jeffers, and Dillon Dingler. Vargas, Jeffers, and Dinger have appeared in a few articles for me this season, so hopefully you were able to scoop them up at some point. Burleson just continues to produce under-the-radar results. He's not really doing much different than last year, but he is chasing outside of the zone a bit more and pulling the ball far more often. Expect steady production all year for Burleson.

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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Waiver Targets

Now, we'll limit it to hitters who are available in more league types and also have an above-average Process+ grade. In order to make the list more manageable, I had to delete some names, and I chose to get rid of hitters who had really poor Contact Value grades without the elite-level power and decisions that Okamoto and Murakami have. I'm of the mind that hitters who make poor contact will likely be far more volatile and less trustworthy, especially if they are not truly elite with their swing decisions. That removed Luke Raley, Edouard Julien, Mark Vientos, Garrett Mitchell, and Kody Clemens from this list.

Sadly, right after I made this list, both Francisco Alvarez and Dylan Beavers landed on the injured list, so they're obviously not hitters that you should be picking up. I was also going to remove Jake Bauers from this list after Christian Yelich returned from the injured list, but Yelich's back is acting up again, so I'm going to keep Bauers on here for the time being in case his starting job remains intact.

I also covered both Trent Grisham and Cam Smith in my article on hitters that I would not drop despite slow starts, and I still believe in both. As you can see, Smith just missed the 100 cut-off, and his Performance grade of 89 is the second lowest on this list. I understand if you want to move off from him in shallower formats; I just wanted to include him here because I do think things are going to click for him at some point this season. Even if you drop him, I'd keep watching his performance to see when he begins to heat up.

A few of these hitters also appeared in an article I wrote in mid-April that highlighted standouts in zone-contact, hard-hit rate, and swinging strike rate. It's not surprising to see Carlos Cortes and Curtis Mead here as well. Cortes is rostered in just 18% of Yahoo! leagues despite hitting .354/.411/.573 in 22 games with four home runs. I understand that he's 29 years old and has never done anything at the big league level, but he makes elite contact and good swing decisions and plays in a great home park. More people need to trust him. Sadly, Mead is still not getting a chance to face right-handed pitchers, so I'm not adding him in many places now, but I love what he's doing under the hood, and I would scoop him up immediately if he starts to get more playing time.

We have a few veterans on here who are just producing at levels that are better than their roster rates. I don't think any of Spencer Steer, Adolis Garcia, J.P. Crawford, or Brandon Marsh are showcasing a new level of skill. I just think they are players who we have come to believe are "washed up" or not very valuable, who are producing well enough right now to be rostered in more formats. Crawford's lack of power will hurt him, as will Garcia's swing decisions, but the overall package is good enough to be rostered in more than 40% of leagues, and none of these players are.

Casey Schmitt - 1B/2B/3B, Giants

Schmitt interested me in the offseason, but I didn't think he had a lineup spot. Yet, the Giants sent Bryce Eldridge to the minors, and Schmitt got a chance to play every day and delivered. He's hitting .285/.338/.500 with six home runs and 18 RBI. The numbers under the hood look good too, with a 14.6% barrel rate and 47.6% hard-hit rate. His bat speed is up a little bit, and he's looking to lift the ball more often, which is helpful. Yet, despite lifting more, he has just a 10% swinging strike rate and a 91.6% zone-contact rate. So he's hitting the ball hard, making lots of contact inside the zone and not swinging at too much junk outside of the zone. That's a combination we can certainly get behind. Nothing here feels flukey. In fact, his xSLG is the same as his slugging percentage, and his xBA and xwOBA are basically identical to what he's posting.

Adolis Garcia - OF, Phillies

Garcia's hard-hit rate is up to 53%, and he’s posting a career-high average exit velocity. He’s squaring the ball up more than he ever has and seems to be focused on peppering line drives and not just trying to lift the ball. His swinging strike rate is the lowest it’s ever been, and he’s chasing less than he has since 2020. Oh, and his zone contact rate and contact rate are the highest they’ve ever been. He may not be a 30-home-run bat anymore, but he could easily hit .245-.255 with 25 home runs this season, hitting in the middle of an offense that’s beginning to heat up.

TJ Rumfield (1B) and Troy Johnston (OF) - Colorado Rockies

We've got two Rockies on here, and I'm lumping them together because I'm lazy. Well, also because the narrative is a bit the same. These are left-handed hitters who will play against all righties and some left-handers, but not most. They both hit in the middle third of the batting order and play in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. As you can see above, they both make a good amount of contact, but Rumfield makes better swing decisions, and Johnston has more power. Rumfield is going to be a better bet for batting average, and he does have six home runs because he looks to pull the ball in a good hitting environment. Johnston has a .460 slugging percentage and a .325 batting average, but he only has two home runs. He rarely gets the ball in the air, just a 30% fly ball rate, so I wouldn't expect tons of big flys, but both of these guys can be usable, especially when they're at home.

Daniel Schneemann - 2B/3B/SS/OF - Guardians

Schneeman has been a bit of a surprise, hitting .272/.357/.447 with four home runs, 18 RBI, and three steals in 37 games. However, he has made quality contact in his 241 MLB games. He has a career 9.2% barrel rate and 40.3% hard-hit rate, which are both above average. His bat speed is up this season, and his line drive rate is up nearly 10%, which could be due to a flatter swing. Schneeman flattened his swing tilt by three degrees this year, which is a relatively sizable change, and also has been getting the ball out in front of the plate more often. That could be helping lead to some of the hard contact increases. He has some swing and miss in his game, and more this year since he's chasing out of the zone more, but the zone contact is solid. The batting average feels like it will come down a bit, but the hard contact feels warranted, and he has some chip-in speed, so maybe Schneeman finishes the season around .250-.260 with eight more home runs and 6-7 more steals. That's not a bad pick-up in a 15-team league.

Carson Benge - OF, Mets

Sometimes prospects just need a little bit of time to figure things out. Carson Benge got off to a slow start to his MLB career, but over his last 25 games, he’s hitting .288/.329/.425 with two home runs, 12 runs scored, 10 RBI, and two steals. If you narrow that to the last 15 games, his slash line becomes better, but he also has a 44% hard-hit rate and is not striking out much. So now we're seeing a hitter who is leading off, making lots of contact, making hard contact, and also stealing bases when he gets on. He doesn't pull or lift the ball much, so the power numbers won't be great, but he could swipe 20 bases while also hitting .270 the rest of the way. That's a profile that needs to be on far more rosters.

Luis Garcia Jr. - 1B/2B, Nationals

Garcia Jr. is coming up for me as a buy on basically every custom leaderboard I do. In some ways, I can see why. The bat speed is up from last year. His hard-hit rate is over 45%. He rarely swings and misses and has a 95% zone contact rate. His average exit velocity is up over two mph to 92.5 mph. All of that is nice. I don't love that he's expanding the zone more than he has before because, as somebody who makes lots of contact, I think that is leading to more average contact than he normally produces. He's also hitting the ball on the ground more often, which is less than ideal. Still, I think this batting average boost is real. I think he's a .270-.280 hitter. He's not going to walk, but he's also not going to strike out much, and he hits in the top third of the order for the Nationals. The main concerns are that the home run upside seems capped around 12-15, and he sits versus left-handed pitching. Still, he's now 1B/2B eligible, and I think that makes him a valuable utility piece in most leagues.