This week's fantasy baseball tips highlight batters with strong starts, focusing on whether to sell or buy high. Key players include Ozzie Albies, Xavier Edwards, and Hunter Goodman, each with varying underlying stats that suggest potential regression.
After looking at buy-low options in the previous two editions, this weekâs article focuses entirely on hitters who are off to excellent starts. Wise fantasy baseball managers will use advanced stats to differentiate those who are earning their high levels of success vs. those who have been fortunate with batted-ball luck. As youâll see, the players listed below have similar surface production but wide variance in underlying data.
Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves: A 29-year-old who is on pace to threaten his career-best marks in homers and batting average, Albies should be easy to hype on the trade market. Unfortunately, his batted-ball tendencies forecast major regression, as his 86.5 mph average exit velocity and 2.9% barrel rate correspond to a .250 hitter, even when factoring in his strong strikeout rate (12.5%). Itâs also concerning that despite earning more trips to first base than he has deserved, Albies has yet to swipe a base (he has been caught stealing twice).
Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS, Marlins: At the plate, this is the best version of Edwards that we have seen. He is hitting the ball harder than ever (89.7 mph average exit velocity) and has a 5.3% barrel rate after previously logging a rate below 2.0% in each season. My concern is that he isnât running the bases aggressively, as he has turned all these trips to first base into just four steals. His sprint speed is slightly lower than in previous seasons, and even with the improved batted-ball tendencies, Edwards wonât make a significant fantasy impact without swiping 30 bags.
Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies: Thanks to the depth at the catcher position, I will often recommend cashing out on overvalued catchers and using the waiver wire to find a replacement. Such is the case with Goodman, who seems like he is on his way to a worthy follow-up to his breakout 2025 season. However, his .250 average has been propped up by a .360 BABIP, which is overshadowing a 38.7% strikeout rate that is second worst among qualified players. Goodman could cut back on the whiffs, but I would be happy to swap him for a useful player at a different position before adding the likes of Dillon Dingler, Francisco Alvarez or Carter Jensen.
Ozzie Albies, Xavier Edwards, and Hunter Goodman are highlighted as players to consider selling high due to concerns about their underlying stats.
Albies has a low average exit velocity and barrel rate, suggesting he may regress to a .250 hitter despite his current success.
Edwards is hitting the ball harder than ever with an average exit velocity of 89.7 mph and a barrel rate of 5.3%, but he needs to increase his stolen bases to be a significant fantasy asset.
Goodman's high batting average is inflated by a high BABIP and he has a concerning 38.7% strikeout rate, making him a candidate for trading before potential decline.
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Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers: Here comes the latest Dodgers superstar. After all, Pages ranks eighth in baseball with a .324 average and sixth with 25 RBI while also on pace for roughly a 30-25 season. Not so fast. The elite batting mark stems from an unsustainable .380 BABIP. And even with the homer-happy nature of Dodger Stadium, Pages will struggle to maintain a 15.2% HR/FB rate unless he improves his 6.0% barrel rate. He could be swapped for a more established outfielder who is off to a less impressive start.
Michael Harris II, OF, Braves: After years of teasing fantasy managers, Harris may finally be ready for a breakout season. And really, we are at a sensible time for a major leap, given that he is just 25 years old and is already playing in his fifth season. Harris has quickly gone from someone with an average quality of contact to posting elite marks in average exit velocity (94.5 mph) and barrel rate (18.5%). He has also cut his strikeout rate to 16.3%. Harris could be a .300 hitter with 30 home runs. And although his steals total (2) is unimpressive, he already has a trio of 20-steal seasons on his résumé.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers: Wise fantasy managers may be able to market Freeman as a veteran in decline. After all, the 36-year-old is posting his lowest OPS (.774) since 2010. He has been terrific this year, as his 11.4% strikeout rate is a lifetime-best mark, and his batted-ball data points, including a 92.1 mph average exit velocity and a 14.4% barrel rate, are the second-best marks of his illustrious 17-year career. The Dodgersâ vaunted offense has yet to kick things into high gear, and Freeman could collect counting stats in bunches when they do.
Dillon Dingler, C, Tigers: I promise this is the last time Iâll write about Dingler, who I have found various ways to mention on a weekly basis this season. The 27-year-old leads all catchers in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. His actual stats are decent, but they donât fully represent how well heâs playing. I would like to get Dingler, who is just 43% rostered, as a throw-in from a trade where I part with a top-shelf catcher for a significant player at a different position.
Daylen Lile, OF, Nationals: Lile is a solid all-around talent who doesnât dominate one category but contributes across the board. The career .291 hitter maintains the necessary strikeout rate and quality of contact to consistently post a helpful batting mark. He has enough power to produce 15-20 homers and enough speed to swipe 10-15 bases. And at his age (23), his skills should continue to improve. The icing on the cake is that the Nats, who rank fourth in baseball in runs scored, seem to have turned the corner as an offense. Like Dingler, Lile (63% rostered) can be thrown into a larger deal.