Free MLB home run picks, odds, predictions for May 3: Vinnie Pasquantino among top HR prop bets on Sunday

Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (+350)

Murakami leads MLB with 13 home runs and will face right-hander Griffin Canning, who is making his first start of the season following surgery last summer to repair a torn Achilles. The former Met kept the ball in the park a little better last season. He allowed 1.63 home runs per nine innings in 2024 but cut that to 0.93 in 2025. Still, he hasn't pitched in a big-league game in 2026, so he could be a little rusty, and Murakami can certainly make him pay for any mistakes. The Japanese newcomer has hit nine home runs in his past 16 games and is 13th in MLB with a .937 OPS. Murakami should take one for a ride Sunday.

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Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals (+402)

Pasquantino hasn't found his power yet, hitting four home runs so far, but he does lead Kansas City with 16 RBI and is due for a big game. The Mariners are sending Luis Castillo (0-2, 6.35 ERA) to the mound Sunday, and he has allowed nine runs and three home runs over his past two starts. Pasquantino hit 32 home runs and 33 doubles last season, so he hits the ball hard. He hasn't hit his stride yet, but it's coming, and we think he could start off a solid run today. All four of his home runs (and 14 RBI) have come against right-handers, and he should see some pitches he can hit hard against Castillo.

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Riley Greene, Tigers (+475)

Greene hit 36 home runs last season and has four so far in 2026, He is hitting .298 overall with an .860 OPS, and though it's still early, that's the highest of his career. He's hitting .286 with seven doubles against right-handers, and three of his four homers have come against them. His hard-hit rate is 50% and his barrel rate is 14.3%, so he's mostly locked in. Rangers starter Jack Leiter has allowed six home runs already after allowing 18 last season. He throws hard, but Greene just needs one swing to send it the other way hard -- and out of the yard.

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