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Why the Rams' decision to draft Ty Simpson makes sense
The San Francisco 49ers executed two trades during the 2026 NFL Draft, trading down from pick 27 to 30 and then to 33. They left the first round without selecting any players but gained additional draft picks for future rounds.
The San Francisco 49ers and general manager John Lynch pulled off not one, but two trades on opening night of the 2026 NFL Draft. They left without any players, but they may have set themselves up for success the rest of the way.
The San Francisco 49ers started out with pick 27 in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft on Thursday night, but two trades later found themselves leaving without selecting any players through the first 32 picks.
How should 49ers fans actually feel about that?
General manager John Lynch pushed through two trades that added value and more picks later in the 2026 NFL Draft, but were they actually “wins” for the 49ers?
First, San Francisco traded down to pick 30 with the Miami Dolphins. Then three picks later they traded down to pick 33 (into the second round) with the New York Jets. Let’s dive into each trade to see where the 49ers truly stand.
First off, if the 49ers were willing to trade, it’s clear (and confirmed via sourcing and team pressers after the first round) that San Francisco missed out on a few target players they were hoping would make it to pick 27.
That was likely the primary driving force for the initial move down by San Francisco. However, when they did move, general manager Lynch made sure that the Dolphins had to pay.
What’s “market”? There are a number of NFL Draft trade charts that can help gauge “fair” value. The Rich Hill chart (similar to the ancient Jimmy Johnson chart) is a bit more old school, but has real NFL trades baked into it that guide normal trade value. Then there’s the Fitzgerald-Spielberger (and its similar cousin chart, the Harvard model). That one is far more analytics-based, mapped to optimize for on-field value versus rookie contract cost. Both charts, and even augmented versions that blend the two, agree. The 49ers won this one.
49ers sent: Pick 27, Pick 138
Dolphins sent: Pick 30, Pick 90
Rich Hill chart: 49ers gained 4% in value
Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart: 49ers gained 8% in value
A to Z Sports chart: 49ers gained 9% in value
It wasn’t a massive win, but if the 49ers didn’t see a huge edge in selecting any one player left on the board, adding value and more picks is a great thing.
Grade: B-
The 49ers traded down from pick 27 to pick 30 with the Miami Dolphins and then from pick 30 to pick 33 with the New York Jets.
The 49ers did not draft any players in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.
The trades allowed the 49ers to accumulate more picks later in the draft, potentially setting them up for greater success.
The general manager of the San Francisco 49ers is John Lynch.
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The first trade didn’t seem like a big win since it was just a small bump up and down between two teams. It made sense, but there wasn’t an obvious winner. However, with the Jets trade, the 49ers won big – at least according to a more analytical approach to cap management. Let’s take a look at what was exchanged, and the trade chart values.
49ers sent: Pick 30
Jets sent: Pick 33, Pick 179
Rich Hill chart: 49ers lost 4% in value
Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart: 49ers gained 25% in value
A to Z Sports chart: 49ers gained 8% in value
Why such a huge disparity between the trade charts here? One of the major issues with the Rich Hill trade chart is that it values late round picks like they’re essentially useless garbage. For instance, pick 179 is considered to be 25 times less valuable than pick 30. That’s an absurd assertion when comparing historical hit rates and cap impact of the rookie contracts.
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger recognizes the fact that pick 30 and 33 are essentially identical in value (especially when accounting for the drop-off in contract cost outside of round one). So, the 49ers are basically getting a fifth round pick for nearly free.
Our A to Z Sports value chart is a blend of both, that values later picks a bit more than the Rich Hill, but also more heavily weights real NFL trades that have ignored on-field value versus cap cost for decades (because most general managers are bad at this).
In short, the Rich Hill trade chart is wrong in this case. It was a huge win for Lynch and the 49ers, even if it doesn’t seem that way on the surface. The 49ers just added another cheap contract for nearly nothing.
Grade: A-
In summary, the 49ers trading down six total pick slots from 27 to 33 allowed them to move up 48 spots (from 138 to 90) and add pick 179 as well. Massive win on night one of the 2026 NFL Draft for the 49ers.