The Miami Heat face a challenging NBA draft lottery with only a 1% chance of securing the top pick and a 4.8% chance for a top-four selection. Historically, the franchise has never moved up in the lottery during its previous 11 attempts.
Key points
Miami Heat have a 1% chance for the top pick
4.8% chance of a top-four selection
Franchise has never moved up in the lottery
11 previous lottery visits
Lottery scheduled for Sunday at 3 p.m.
Mentioned in this story
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MIAMI — As the Miami Heat look ahead to Sunday’s NBA draft lottery, a moment with the potential to reset the franchise’s future, there also is the reality of a sobering look back.
Each of the franchise’s 11 previous visits to the NBA’s random-but-weighted drawing for the top picks in the draft has ended the same way as for most who run their lottery tickets through those scanners in Publix, only to receive the resulting message of “Not a Winner.”
Worth noting: In a re-draft, a case could be made for Herro of at least a top-10 talent and possibly even top-five talent in his class, considering the likes selected ahead of him such as Cam Reddish, Jarrett Culver, Jaxson Hayes and Cam Johnson.
Worth noting: On one hand, this could be looked at picking one slot too late, with Donovan Mitchell going at No. 13. On the other, Adebayo arguably stands top three in this draft along with Tatum and Mitchell.
Worth noting: No, not a great draft, but the sting still endures of Booker being allowed to slide three picks past Winslow, as well as the Heat bypassing a package of first-round picks from the Celtics for Winslow, who never lived up to the promise.
Worth noting: If the Heat held serve here, the choice would have been Rose. That, in a butterfly effect, creates the question of whether, with a Rose-Dwyane Wade backcourt there would have been the long view of in 2010 creating the Big Three with Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh.
2003: A win with Wade
Lottery seed: No. 4
Lottery result: No. 5.
Selection: Dwyane Wade at No. 5.
Odds for No. 1 pick: 12%
Top four picks: No. 1 LeBron James, No. 2 Darko Milicic, No. 3 Carmelo Anthony, No. 4 Chris Bosh.
Worth noting: Consider a world where the Pistons didn’t swing and miss with Milicic and the first four instead were James, Anthony, Bosh and Wade, leaving big-man loving Pat Riley to go with . . . Chris Kaman?
Worth noting: If Butler didn’t fall to the Heat here, it is possible the Heat never would have had the needed package to flip to the Lakers in the 2004 offseason for Shaquille O’Neal. Meaning . . . the Heat’s first championship would have come when?
1995: Thomas pre-Riley
Lottery seed: No. 10
Lottery result: No. 10
Selection: Kurt Thomas at No. 10
Odds for No. 1 pick: 2.7%
Top four picks: No. 1 Joe Smith, No. 2 Antonio McDyess, No. 3 Jerry Stackhouse, No. 4 Rasheed Wallace.
Prominent selections after Heat pick: No. 13 Corliss Williamson, No. 15 Brent Barry, No. 21 Michael Finley Jr., No. 43 Eric Snow.
Worth noting: This was the Heat’s final first-round pick before Pat Riley took over the front office, a pick made by soon-to-be-deposed general manager Dave Wohl, with this the draft party where Micky Arison floated the idea of landing Riley.
1993: Pick dealt
Lottery seed: No. 9.
Lottery result: No. 10
Selection: Lindsey Hunter at No. 10 by Detroit as part of trade that sent John Salley from Pistons to Heat.
Odds for No. 1 pick: 4.55%
Top four picks: No. 1 Chris Webber, No. 2, Shawn Bradley, No. 3. Penny Hardaway, No. 4. Jamal Mashburn.
Prominent selections after Heat pick: No. 11 Allan Houston, No. 24 Sam Cassell, No. 37 Nick Van Exel, No. 45 Byron Russell.
Worth noting: The Salley acquisition was an overreach by the former front office for a role player without leading-man skills. Keeping the pick and picking Houston would have altered Heat history.
Worth noting: The drop to No. 5 wasn’t costly. What was costly was the disastrous trade of Smith and Grant Long at the start of the 1994-95 season to Atlanta for Kevin Willis, a move that remains one of the worst in franchise history.
1990: Another trade
Lottery seed: No. 2
Lottery result: No. 3
Selection: Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (then Chris Jackson) at No. 3 by Denver for draft rights to Willie Burton at No. 9 and Alec Kessler at No. 12.
Odds for No. 1 pick: 15.15%
Top four picks: No. 1 Derrick Coleman, No. 2 Gary Payton, No. 3 Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, No. 4 Dennis Scott.
Prominent selections after Heat pick: No. 5 Kendall Gill, No. 6 Felton Spencer, No. 29 Toni Kukoc. No. 45 Antonio Davis.
Worth noting: The Burton portion of the deal helped salvage the trade, but Kessler, who was pushed as a selection by then-coach Kevin Loughery, never panned out. Now if only they knew what Kukoc would become.
1989: Rice first lottery pick
Lottery seed: No. 1
Lottery result: No. 4
Selection: Glen Rice at No. 4
Odds for No. 1 pick: 11.11%
Top four picks: No. 1 Pervis Ellison, No. 2 Danny Ferry, No. 3 Sean Elliott, No. 4 Rice.
Prominent selections after Heat pick: No. 10 Pooh Richardson, No. 14 Tim Hardaway, No. 17 Shawn Kemp, No. 26 Vlade Divac.
Worth noting: Even by sliding, the Heat arguably still wound up with the best talent of the draft, as well as the player that would be the centerpiece of the 1995 trade for Alonzo Mourning.
