History suggests Fernando Mendoza is a longshot for a good rookie year

The Raiders expect (or at least "hope") that Fernando Mendoza will elevate this franchise to heights it hasn't seen in a decade, and sustained heights not seen in 25 years. But if that happens, it probably won't be evident in his rookie campaign. If history is any guide, he's in for a rough debut.

In the past 28 NFL drafts, 21 quarterbacks have been taken #1 overall, beginning with Peyton Manning in 1998. He started all 16 games that season, compiling an impressive (for that era) 3,379 passing yards and 26 TD passes. Oh, and 28 interceptions. His two top targets were future Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison (only 26 years old) and Marshall Faulk (only 25). One could argue that if Manning instead were throwing to a couple of middling rookies and a couple of journeymen receivers, he would have fared much worse.

It turns out that Manning had one of the only half-decent rookie seasons among these 21 #1 overall picks. Michael Vick, David Carr, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence also threw more interceptions than touchdown passes. Injuries curtailed seemingly promising rookie years for Joe Burrow. Bryce Young looked barely adequate, and Sam Bradford didn't look much better.

Statistically, the only relative standouts were , , , , and . was borderline "very good." Essentially, if we include Peyton Manning, only one-third of the QBs taken #1 overall these past three decades produced stat lines that arguably justified their selection.