How Real Madrid Can Find A Path To Beating Bayern Munich

For four straight games — Manchester City twice, Elche, and Atletico Madrid — Real Madrid had looked like they had built something ‘real’. The mood had completely flipped since the Getafe Debacle on March 2nd. In the four game stretch after that Getafe loss, the team outscored opponents 14 – 5. Shots were flying, chances were being converted. Opponents looked overwhelmed. The defense was rallying. For the first time in a long time, ‘guerra’ had returned.

Then Real Madrid lost to Mallorca away from home on the back of a terrible performance, then lost to Bayern Munich at home, and then dropped points against Girona. (More on those in a minute.)

In that initial four game stretch, for the first time in a long time, belief had returned. When Real Madrid went down a goal in the first half against Atletico Madrid in the Derby on Sunday, this author (the fan, not the journalist) felt at ease and confident the team could overturn the deficit and win. I wasn’t alone. Fans expressed the same sentiment in the comments of our post-game podcast from the Bernabeu.

Part of the success had come from superstars like Vinicius Jr and Fede Valverde punching the team’s ceiling up multiple levels. But as great as they were, they weren’t the only part of the success, and that’s why the team as a whole had succeeded in those games.

Everyone was buying in to Arbeloa-ball. Despite injuries to Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo Goes, Eder Militao, Alvaro Carreras, and Ferland Mendy, the team didn’t miss a beat. Every player next in line had elevated himself. Third-choice left-back, Fran Garcia, had come in and been a menace on both ends, holding his own 1v1 on defense, hunting players down with his pressing; dribbling down the byline, providing overloads, and playing with verticality. Show him some love!

How about Brahim Diaz? How does a team lose three of its four best attacking players, and still score 14 goals in five games? Yes, of course Vinicius and Valverde went into Goku mode, but don’t for a second under-appreciate Brahim, who ran himself into the ground on defense and gave opponents all kinds of hell with his dribbling. In particular, Brahim’s low center of gravity makes him really hard to dispossess. He’d also been making great off-ball runs into the right half-space which created space for players like Valverde and Vinicius.

What about Dean Huijsen? How crucial was he? This is the apex of the season, where the thick-skinned warriors separate themselves from the frail. Huijsen was under scrutiny, (not wrongly) labelled ‘too chill’. At this stage of the calendar, high pressing teams will breathe down your neck and test your resolve. Atletico previously exposed him earlier this season. But this time they couldn’t, neither could City who tried to take his space away. Huijsen was unnerved — blood chilled — playing with verticality and using his shoulder to drop onrushing opponents.

Arbeloa showed his versatility — which is the most important tactical trait to have at the most successful football team that has ever existed. Against Atletico, Real Madrid hunted Simeone’s men into eight turnovers high up the pitch. A couple weeks prior at the Bernabeu, they ceded possession and gave City 72.1% field tilt — holding them to a minimal .71 xG while raining down three goals on Pep Guardiola.

But that versatility has not yet extended to breaking down low blocks, and the Mallorca loss reminded us of that. Girona closed space efficiently too. Bayern, in between, were murderous getting into their attacking zones and forcing Real Madrid’s players into mistakes. And though their playing style suits Arbeloa’s men more, Real Madrid’s attackers weren’t cold blooded enough to capitalize on the transition attacks Bayern allowed them.

The losses also brought up another big discussion point, at they coincided with Mbappe’s return to the starting line-up.

Were the losses a sign of Mbappe’s return, or simply a poster of Real Madrid’s perpetual struggles against Mallorca (and many teams) in La Liga? Remember: Real Madrid lost without Mbappe against Getafe just prior to the City game, and losing these games in between bigger tests in the Champions League is common every year. Would Bayern provide a relief the way City did because of their style of play, or would they amplify the the structural concerns of having Mbappe in the lineup? It’s hard to say for sure how that game would’ve gone differently had Mbappe not featured. He made all the right runs off the ball and gave Bayern problems — while the team’s mistakes all came from the back.

The dropped points against Mallorca and Girona may have been both a symptom of the fixtures themselves as well as Mbappe’s impact. The team defended better without Mbappe in that four game stretch and also didn’t miss his goals because of the added freedom of Fede Valverde and movements of Brahim and Vinicius.

Now there is potentially only one test left, in Munich on Wednesday — and that’s where the team’s true evaluation lies. The league is dusted. If the season ends in Munich, it will be the second consecutive year the team bows out of every major competition with their tails between their legs on the back of the same tactical concerns as before.

Bayern are the best team Real Madrid have faced this season, probably because they are the best team in the world this season until proven otherwise. Even if they have some vulnerabilities, they have a devastating attacking trio and they play ultra-fluid, ultra-aggressive football which generates a ton of offensive chaos and hoodwinks opponents into mistakes.

In some ways, Real Madrid will love that Bayern will continue to play aggressive and leave space in behind their defense. They dream of attacking teams with space — teams that dare to turn the match into a back-and-forth, basketball style spectacle. But they also have to prove themselves rather than bask in this theory. There is no point patting yourselves on the back for the opportunity to play in transition because your team is built to play that way — only to miss chances and make mistakes on both ends of the field.

Mbappe is generational, but there needs to be a reality check and acknowledgement of a very simple truth: He was signed for moments like this, and getting knock out on Wednesday is a failure. Mbappe scores a lot at a high volume of attempts. If Real Madrid are to come back, they need Mbappe at his most efficient, and not just at a clip that seems him score one goal per five chances. That extends to Vinicius and Bellingham too.

That there is belief to beat this Bayern team now is a testament to the Champions League DNA and not much else. Like the Arsenal tie last season, the comeback is not built in logic as much as it is based in voodoo.

You have to give them the benefit of the doubt, still. Before City, no one gave Real Madrid a chance or predicted that it would be Real Madrid, not City, to face Bayern at this stage of the competition. But here we are, and as has been proven since, City are a very good team, despite what some narratives suggested.

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In a matter of 16 days, Arbeloa slayed both Guardiola (twice) and Simeone. Is Kompany beyond him? If that’s the the consensus, that’s exactly where he — and Real Madrid — want to be: Underestimated and overlooked. City were favourites; as are Bayern. In both cases, there was good reason for it: City were better at the time; and this Bayern team does a lot of things at an elite level.

Firstly, it would be naive to think just because Bayern are aggressive that it means their defense is vulnerable. Despite holding a high line with two players at the base marshalling the half-way line, they concede very few counter-attacking goals — and that has a lot to do with how quickly they snuff out teams in transition with their counter-press and how quickly they retract as a unit.

Even though Bayern have (far and away) scored the most goals of anyone in the Big Five leagues (Barcelona, who are second, have scored 21 less goals domestically), they also boast a top-10 defense. Only five teams in Europe — Arsenal, PSG, Inter, Juve, Como — have a lower xGA.

Real Madrid came a long way defensively in those aforementioned four games, and that was what gave some hope containing Bayern’s offense. They were able to stay compact. The team rotated quickly and cohesively:

Real Madrid safeguard the backline with a bank of five, with Tchouameni and Pitarch operating in a double pivot just ahead of the defensive line. Julian Alvarez tries to sneak into the blind spot, but even though he looks open, Rüdiger is already marking that zone, completely aware of his presence. Once Alvarez gets the ball, Rüdiger steps while Brahim closes from behind.

Atletico recycle possession but are given nothing by Real Madrid’s defense, who have every player covered in every zone. Atleti desperately search for something. The play ends in a harmless long ball into the box by Koke which is easily cleared by Fran Garcia.

But Bayern provided a much different test to Atletico — they have more bodies committed forward; ergo, more players to mark. It is not uncommon to see center-backs join the attack alongside or ahead of Harry Kane to provide multiple targets in their fluid system. Struggles against City in the second leg at the Etihad gave us a primer of what Bayern would bring:

Above, by the time Rodri receives the cut-back at the top of the box to shoot, City have four players in the box, with two others just outside — plus Jeremy Doku doing the line-breaking on the left. Real Madrid have nine outfield players set to defend, but still concede a shot because of all the moving parts that are diverting their attention.

Those are the sequences Bayern provide at a higher volume. They can be vulnerable on the break, but there is a method to the madness: To provide numerical superiority in the final third and give constant headaches while mentally (and physically) wearing down their opponents.

Bayern love generating confusion. In many game states, Kompany is fielding a 2-2-6 of sorts. Are Harry Kane and Serge Gnabry dropping deep to overload the midfield? Are the center-backs and midfielders rushing into the box while the wingers stretch the field and get a cross into dangerous targets? There are so many moving parts — so much fluidity — that opposing teams have had a terrible time calculating where they need to be and when to get to those spots. It is a perpetual mental test.

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It all manifested all too horrifically in the first leg. Vinicius Jr gave the ball away carelessly four times, and two of those led to a Bayern goal. Trent Alexander-Arnold completed just two of his 11 long balls as he he struggled under the pressure. Alvaro Carreras looked like he was playing with metallic boots on his feet. Mistakes were made prolifically. Bayern have too many elite pieces that punish you over and over again. Margins against them are razor thin, at best. You need to be perfect taking your chances on goal and you need to switched on 100% of the time.

Maybe Real Madrid were stunned at how good Bayern were. They did not look prepared for the occassion.

Both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich will have come away from the first leg somewhat disappointed in their own respective ways. Bayern looked dominant yet only came away with a one-goal lead without buying Real Madrid. Meanwhile, Real Madrid missed a breakaway, were the better team for the last 25 minutes of the second half (analytically-backed, if your eyes don’t believe it), and Mbappe missed several big chances. Real Madrid closed the game with more shots and more shots on target while the possession was nearly identical. Take those numbers for what you will. All in all, Bayern winning by one goal sounds about right.

So what’s next? Is talk of a comeback based on fairy dust? Not entirely. It is not uncommon in Real Madrid’s recent history to advance after getting outplayed in the first leg with everyone doubting them. The team’s surge in the second half of the first leg coincided with Jude Bellingham coming off the bench and looking untouchable. Bayern couldn’t unnerve him with their pressing the way they do to others. If Mendy returns, he could be a huge upgrade over Alvaro Carreras who was put into a blender by Michael Olise at the Bernabeu. Eder Militao is back and looking like himself again. They’ll need him at his best. Ditto everyone else who needs to be better from the first leg: Lunin, Trent, Pitarch, Vinicius, to name a few.

Even those minor details may not be enough. Scoring one or two against Bayern is doable. Shutting them out is almost impossible.

Aurelien Tchouameni’s suspension is a big blow. Is Eduardo Camavinga ready? Camavinga has been blitzing his own team with mistakes this season, and Bayern are the kings of forcing mistakes. Arbeloa could also keep Camavinga on the bench while deploying Pitarch in a double pivot. Pitarch has his own concerns — he has given the ball away suicidally both against City and Bayern. Güler and Bellingham are the most reliable midfield ball progressors available. They will be asked to lead the team and chill everyone’s blood.

The degree of difficulty of advancing against Bayern this round is up there on the same level of difficulty as beating City and PSG in 2022.

Bayern gave windows of vulnerability to Real Madrid in the first leg. Now is not the time for mercy. If those chances arise in Munich, Mbappe and Vinicius need to be in Terminator mode.