How The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery Shakes Up The Offseason Trade Landscape

The Wizards already bought low on former All-Star point guard Trae Young and All-Star big man Anthony Davis ahead of February's trade deadline. They'll now have the opportunity to pair a promising prospect with Young, Davis, Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson and the rest of their young core.

It makes sense for the Wizards not to rule out any possibilities this early in the process. But they ultimately figure to stand pat and select BYU forward AJ Dybantsa with the No. 1 overall pick.

The same goes with the Utah Jazz, who landed the No. 2 overall pick. Like the Wizards, they also took a big swing at the trade deadline by acquiring former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. from the Memphis Grizzlies. They already have a rock-solid core in place between Jackson, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Keyonte George and Ace Bailey.

If Dybantsa goes No. 1 as expected, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson makes a ton of sense for the Jazz at No. 2. Jazz president Austin Ainge also told Fischer that they're "open" to trade offers and will "always listen," but it's hard to imagine they'd be willing to part ways with the No. 2 overall pick for a win-now star.

The Grizzlies, who shipped Jackson to the Jazz at the trade deadline and sent Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic last offseason, are still in the process of tearing down their roster. They figure to revisit trade talks involving point guard Ja Morant this offseason after failing to move him at the deadline.

Whomever the Grizzlies select at No. 3 could be their franchise cornerstone moving forward. They are not in a position to trade that pick for a win-now player, particularly if they're able to move Morant. (Keep an eye on the Miami Heat as a potential landing spot, particularly if they're willing to part with the No. 13 pick in a package for him.)

Rounding out the top four are the Chicago Bulls, who finished with the league's ninth-worst record before jumping up five spots in the lottery. Like the Grizzlies, the Bulls are in the early stages of a teardown, so their good lottery fortune came at the perfect time.

The Bulls began their long-overdue rebuild by shipping out Nikola Vučević, Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu at the trade deadline, albeit for far less than they likely would have received a year or two ago. They have Josh Giddey signed to an affordable $25 million-per-year contract through 2028-29, and 2024 No. 11 overall pick Matas Buzelis looks like the real deal, but they're sorely devoid of building blocks otherwise.

Like the Grizzlies, it would make zero sense for the Bulls to ship out the No. 4 pick for a win-now veteran.

Where The Trade Intrigue Begins

The Los Angeles Clippers were one of the biggest winners of the lottery, as they weren't guaranteed to have a first-round pick at all.

When the Clippers sent Ivica Zubac to the Indiana Pacers at the trade deadline, the Pacers sent back their unprotected 2029 first-round pick, a 2028 second-rounder, Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson and a conditional 2026 first-round pick. The Clippers would only get that pick if it fell between Nos. 5-9; otherwise, they'd get the Pacers' fully unprotected 2031 first-round pick instead.

The Pacers had a 52.1% chance of landing a top-four pick, a 27.8% chance of falling to No. 5 and a 20.1% chance of dropping all the way to No. 6. With the Jazz, Grizzlies and Bulls jumping up, the Pacers plunged three spots to No. 5, which means the Clippers walk away with that pick.

Like the Grizzlies and Bulls, the Clippers began a roster overhaul at the trade deadline by sending Zubac to the Pacers and James Harden to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Kawhi Leonard figures to be back in the trade rumor mill this summer, provided that the NBA doesn't void his contract as a result of its investigation into alleged salary-cap circumvention.

If the Clippers want to continue building around Leonard and Darius Garland, would they consider moving the No. 5 pick for a win-now player? It can't be ruled out at this early juncture, although it seems more likely that they'll instead pivot to build around whomever they select at No. 5.

The Brooklyn Nets were one of the biggest losers of the lottery. Despite entering the lottery with the third-best odds and a 52.1% chance of getting a top-four pick, they dropped three spots to No. 6. Given where they are in their rebuild, they'd be better off considering trades up into the top four of the lottery rather than trading that pick for an aging veteran such as Antetokounmpo or Leonard.

The Golden State Warriors (No. 11) and Heat (No. 13) now have late lottery picks to dangle in trade talks. The Oklahoma City Thunder also have a pair of mid-first-round picks (Nos. 12 and 17) that they could offer either in an attempt to move up or for future draft capital. The same goes for the Charlotte Hornets (Nos. 14 and 18), while the Bulls (No. 15) and Grizzlies (No. 16) also have a mid-first-round pick to go with their top-four selection.

There's still plenty of potential for draft picks to change hands between now and the start of the 2026 NBA draft on June 23. But the Bucks and other teams that are considering trading their stars this offseason would have been better off if teams in win-now windows had jumped up in the lottery.

Having rebuilding teams win those top-four picks might mean less action than hoped for at the top of the draft.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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This article was originally published on Forbes.com