In the 2026 Kentucky Derby 'Super Trainers' could make all the difference

BRAD COX
Of 12 starters, his only winner was Mandaloun, who actually finished second in the race. The horse who was first was Medina Spirit, who several months after the race was disqualified for a drug violation.

TODD PLETCHER
The all-time Kentucky Derby record holder with 65 starters. In 2013 he had five horses in the race, and four times he had four horses. It can reasonably be assumed that many of these horses were entered because the owners wanted to have a horse in America’s biggest race, although they might be overmatched. From his record number of starters, Pletcher won in 2010 with Super Saver and 2017 with Always Dreaming. He is 2-for-65.

Todd Pletcher

BILL MOTT
The youngest trainer ever inducted in the Racing Hall of Fame (at age 45 in 1998), he has also won five Eclipse Awards as the top trainer in the country. His first Derby win came in the unusual case of the disqualification of Maximum Security, who crossed the line first in 2019. On his way, however, he interfered with other horses. Mott’s Country House came up on the outside to finish second. Although he was not interfered with, he was put up for the win. His other Derby win was in the more traditional fashion last year with Sovereignty, who went on to become Horse of the Year.

CHAD BROWN
No wins from nine Derby starters, although he has been second twice (Good Magic in 2018 and Sierra Leone in 2024). Brown is a relatively young trainer at the top of his game, and many more opportunities at the big prize are in his future.

STEVE ASMUSSEN
He has won over 11,000 races, more than any trainer in North American history. The Kentucky Derby, however, is another issue. Mr. Asmussen has the biggest Derby 0-fer among active trainers. He is 0-for-28, with three seconds and two thirds. Perhaps his toughest beat was in 2022, when his Epicenter prevailed in a stretch duel with Zandon, but both were surprised by 80-1 Rich Strike coming up the rail to win the race. For all that he has given to the game, I hope a Kentucky Derby is in Steve Asmussen’s future.

MARK CASSE
A member of the Canadian and American Halls of Fame, Mark Casse has had 11 starters in the Derby, and none of them have finished first, second or third. In 2019 his War of Will was one of the horses interfered with by Maximum Security. He came back two weeks later to win the Preakness.

Bob Baffert was not included in this grouping, as he starts less horses than the six trainers in this comparison. He does, however, have some very expensive horses for elite owners. As a result, he has won the Derby six times from 35 starters. In the years since 2010, he posted three of those winners.

Outside of the six trainers I have sampled and Bob Baffert, there is a second flight who usually fall somewhere between fifth and 15th in annual purse earnings. They include trainers like Kenny McPeek, Doug O’Neill, Graham Motion and the veteran Shug McGaughey. Since 2010, O’Neill has won the Derby twice, while McPeek, Motion and McGaughey have also won. In that period, the outliers to this grouping are Gustavo Delgado (Mage in 2023), Eric Reed (Rich Strike in 2022) and Art Sherman
(California Chrome in 2014). It’s a reasonable bet to say that the trainer of this year’s Derby will come from the six trainers in my statistical breakdown, Bob Baffert, or the “second flight” of top trainers that I have referred to.

An overview of the Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby with Steve Kornacki

Looking at the prospective field for this year’s Derby, here are some trainer connections to consider:

BRAD COX
He has three winners of this year’s 100-points-to-the-winner Kentucky Derby preps. Further Ado won the Blue Grass Stakes, Commandment won the Florida Derby, and Fulleffort won the Jeff Ruby Steaks. He is setting up for this Derby with quality and quantity.

TODD PLETCHER
Renegade’s win in the Arkansas Derby might’ve been the most impressive win in all the derby preps. He’ll be one of the favorites and he should love the mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs.

GUSTAVO DELGADO
Since his Derby surprise with Mage in 2023, Delgado has focused on upgrading the quality of his barn. The Puma was purchased for $150,000 last year, but he’s been a solid performer in all four career races against top competition.

CHAD BROWN
Paladin was one of the early favorites for this year’s Derby until a non-displaced fracture put him on the sidelines. Brown’s best hope is with the lightly-raced Emerging Market, who won the Louisiana Derby in only his second career start.

BILL MOTT
His Chief Wallabee has been impressive in his last two starts, finishing second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and a narrow third in the Florida Derby. Now that he’s officially in the field, he’ll be dangerous.

MARK CASSE
Silent Tactic has been a consistent performer in the graded stakes for three-year-olds at Oaklawn Park. He won the Southwest Stakes, was second in the Rebel Stakes and second in the Arkansas Derby. The only problem is that Renegade beat him by four lengths in the Arkansas Derby and seemed much superior.

As for some of the other trainers, Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby 6 times (tied for the record), and has the $2.4 million purchase Potente, who was a mediocre second in the Santa Anita Derby in his last start. He’d have to improve significantly. Doug O’Neill has Pavlovian, a hard-tryer who lost by a head to Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby. Also, Kenny McPeek has Right to Party, who was second last out in a rather soft edition of the Wood Memorial.

Reviewing these trainers, their Derby histories, and their present prospects is not an exercise in picking a winner. It is, however, a preliminary look at where the power might lie as we approach the 152nd Kentucky Derby. As the song from the show Cabaret goes: “Money Makes The World Go Round”. In horse racing, that is the factor that often places the most well-bred horses with the most proven trainers. There is no guarantee that a “Super Trainer” will win the race, but history and the ability of those trainers to prepare a horse for the Derby is a major factor. This is not to say that a trainer who has little or no Derby experience can’t win the race, but it would be a steep mountain to climb.