8 takeaways from the Buffalo Bills' 2026 schedule release
Key Takeaways from the Buffalo Bills' 2026 Schedule Release
The Buffalo Bills face a challenging 2026 schedule, starting with a tough road game against the Houston Texans. Predictions suggest they may finish with a mixed record as they navigate a competitive season.
The predictions suggest a mixed record for the Buffalo Bills as they face a tough schedule in the 2026 NFL season.
In Week 1 of the 2026 season, the Buffalo Bills will play against the Houston Texans.
FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the Bills as favorites at (-135) to win the AFC East in 2026.
Josh Allen has struggled in past games against the Texans, making the upcoming matchup particularly challenging.
Key Takeaways from the Buffalo Bills' 2026 Schedule Release
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Iâm handing the Bills a loss to open the regular season. Itâs a road game for a first-time head coach, and in a stadium where Josh Allen has played some of his worst NFL football. Sure, itâs a new era and we keep hearing about the energy around One Bills Drive. The Texans, however, didnât get worse on defense and theyâre certain to be ready to get the bad taste of that playoff loss in New England out of the way. Allen will have to wait a bit longer for his first win in Houstonâs swanky dome. **Bills: 0-1**
Another thing I really dislike is picking the Lions to lose â at least in any game where they donât play the Bills. Detroit is also finally a good football team, but one that tends to play a chaotic brand of football similar to Buffalo. I see the Bills winning their home opener for obvious reasons. Some things are bigger than head-to-head roster analysis. Things like the first game in a new stadium featuring the best fan base in all of sports roaring at the cameras of *Thursday Night Football*. Itâs a primetime stage that favors Josh Allen, and I see him rising to the occasion once again here in the first matchup of a three-game home stand to break in the new place. **Bills: 1-1**
There are some things anyone predicting future records avoids. Then thereâs me, someone who tends to avoid even mentioning what those items are, simply because I believe I have jinxing powers. (Yes, thatâs now fully in play with this schedule release.) Hopefully folks get what Iâm angling toward here. Essentially, itâs that in considering the Billsâ best against the Chargersâ best, victory goes to Allen and a Buffalo team playing its second-consecutive game at home. **Bills: 2-1**
What to make of the Patriots based on 2025? Well, they figured out how to make great luck work in their favor until the end. Can we know much about New England in 2026 with three games in the books ahead of this Week 4 game? Perhaps not. Is Buffalo losing this game? Youâd like to think no, especially with the drama thatâs sure to follow head coach Mike Vrabel. Still, remember that in 2025, the Bills dropped one at home to the Pats. Itâs not happening this time. Get the troughs, and rally âround the personal massage devices! Be sure to let Tom Brady know that Buffaloâs hotels have no room for him, too. He can sleep in the parking lot if he draws this matchup as an announcer. **Bills: 3-1**
Buffalo canât win every game, right? This is likely to be billed as a potential Super Bowl matchup, and a game featuring the two most-recent NFL MVPs in Allen and quarterback Matthew Stafford. These Rams are a tough out, no matter the circumstances. Even playing what was arguably their best football a couple seasons ago, Buffalo still managed to fall to the NFCâs equally potent LA club. **I see this as a loss for the Bills: 3-2**
The second half of a two-game road stand out west see the Bills taking on a Raiders team that could find reason to start rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza by Week 6. Even if veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins plays, and even if tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty go Large Hadron Collider mode, Buffalo isnât losing to the rebuilding Raiders. Right? **Bills: 4-2**
4-2 entering the early bye is a good place to be, especially with Baltimore on the horizon. Week 8: vs. Baltimore Ravens This is a tough game to predict. If Sean McDermott was still the head coach, thereâd be every reason to lean on his record out of bye weeks. Itâs a new era, and the Bills could be ripe for a let down against a Ravens team that has plenty of scores to settle. **Bills lose, drop to: 4-3**
Look, The Bills arenât losing to the Vikings this time, whether Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy plays quarterback. **Bills: 5-3**
You can try and sell me on how great the Jets seemed to have done in the 2026 NFL Draft; that Breece Hall is being paid well. It doesnât matter. A team serious about the Super Bowl doesnât lose this game, no matter what traps may lie in waiting. **Bills: 6-3**
You can try and sell me on how great the Dolphins seemed to have done in the 2026 NFL Draft; that Devon Achane is being paid well. It doesnât matter. A team serious about the Super Bowl doesnât lose this game, no matter what traps may lie in waiting. **Bills: 7-3**
Buffaloâs first home game on Thanksgiving, where thereâs sure to be some larger (and perhaps even unconventionally spicy) fowl eats for the winner. Itâs a tale with plenty of history, where the Bills seem to have the Chiefsâ and Patrick Mahomesâ number in the regular season. **Anything can happen, but⊠Bills win: 8-3**
If Buffalo wins the first matchup (Week 4), then itâs fair turnabout to say New England figured a few things out in the nine weeks between the two meetings. Still, Iâm picking the Bills here. The Patriots could be better than last seasonâs team and even better than they were in Week 4, but I sense revenge will be on Buffaloâs mind all season long. And theyâre going to need this game. **Bills: 9-3**
Full disclosure: Iâm not head over heels about Jordan Loveâs game. The Packers do have a wealth of talent, and lots of people like LaFleur as head coach. Another thing Iâm not hyped about is a late-season game at Lambeau Field. Now, if James Cook gets going in 2026 like he did in 2025, all bets are off â but a team that plays games in a region with awful weather doesnât always play its best games in adverse conditions. Buffalo loses in Green Bay, which raises questions about their talent against top-tier NFC teams. **Bills: 9-4**
I donât really know how to gauge this one. Itâs a game most saw as an ideal Week 1 matchup for the Bills as a home opener. That, as we well understand now, wonât happen. Yes, the DJ Moore factor is a real thing, and we should have a real good idea of how he fits with Allen by the time this game rolls around one month before the postseason. On one hand, I see no way Buffalo loses this game if McDermott was still the head coach. Heâd do just enough to squeak by and ask the team to avoid playing flashy ball that reveals much ahead of three in a row against the AFC to close the regular season. But in 2026, itâs Joe Bradyâs show. Was his offense in 2025 a byproduct of McDermottâs demands? Weâll only be told so if it looks vastly different with him at the helm. All this to say, I could see a real scenario where Brady gets bold and plays to win (or calls mind-numbing plays behind the LOS), with a mistake here or there handing them another loss against a tough NFC opponent. Another home loss will hurt, make no mistake. But dropping games against the NFC is a tiny silver lining. **Bills: 9-5**
What a tough draw for Buffalo this season. That is, getting in the frame of mind to travel to Colorado for a Friday afternoon game against the Broncos as part of their Christmas Day celebration. These guys are professionals, but thereâs little (or nothing) in the way of routine for the group in playing both a Friday game and on such a massive holiday. Can the Bills win this game? All you need to do is understand that Josh Allen exists. Sure, they can win it, but there could be plenty of distractions to point toward them losing an unconventional matchup against a playoff-caliber team. Plus, the Broncos added Jalen Waddle to the wide receivers room. Bo Nix could have a wealth of options catching passes in 2026. **Bills: 9-6**
Just as I see McDermott finding a way to defeat the Bears if still in charge, itâs also easy to see this game going off the rails with him still in the building. We saw that happen against this team in 2025. McDermott didnât lose a ton of games, but those he did stood out in really bad ways. He marched a wholly unprepared team into South Beach for an indefensible beatdown. Thatâs something that should stick with the key players and coaches on this seasonâs roster. Playing in the heat at the peak of the afternoon will affect a Bills team in late-season form. If Miamiâs rookie class takes a while to adapt, then it comes down to how well first-time defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard schemes to stop Devon Achane. Jaylen Waddle. **Bills: 10-6**
Another year, another regular-season ending against the Jets. One of these seasons, Gang Green will play decent-to-good football. The NFL schedule makers are counting on that happening in 2026, if they saw fit to lock in this AFC East clash mere days before the Wild Card round. Forget all that. Buffalo has big plans and they canât relax and rest players in the final game of the season if this prediction proves true. With that, the Bills complete a season sweep of the AFC East, reminding everyone that rose-colored glasses fit well when reflecting back on what was the Patriotsâ fortune in 2025. **Bills: 11-6** Before writing this, I had talked myself into the idea of a 10-7 season at best. I thought 9-8 might even be realistic with what could pan out as 11 potentially losable games. Then I remembered that every NFL game is losable, and that motivation is real in professional football. Thereâs a ton of unfinished business for Allen and the Bills, and it begins with fixing letdowns against their AFC East rivals. If youâd please, allow me time to cross my fingers and toes that the jinx isnât in play at this point. You can in kind press your luck at FanDuel Sportsbook to see if youâve got what it takes to make a play on the Bills in 2026. What do you see happening with the Billsâ regular season on a week-to-week basis in 2026?