Mets vs. Yankees prediction: Four things to know about season's first Subway Series

"I really don't understand it," Yankees captain Aaron Judge said about the Mets' struggles (via The Athletic). "They've got a great manager with (Carlos Mendoza) over there. They've got a great lineup. A great pitching staff. It's baseball. You can't really judge a team off of six weeks of the season. If you did that, you could take six weeks that we're struggling and say we're the worst team out there. They've got a good ball club over there."

Here are the details for this week's three-game Subway Series in Queens. The games on Saturday and Sunday can be streamed on fubo (Try for free).

Saturday lines up to be lefty David Peterson's spot, though the Mets have paired him with an opener the last few times out, hence the TBA. The Yankees have a lefty-heavy top of the lineup with Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Ben Rice surrounding Judge in the 1-2-3-4 spots. It might be worth just starting Peterson and getting those left-on-left matchups in the first inning. We'll see.

Here is what you need to know heading into the latest edition of the Subway Series at Citi Field, plus a prediction, because why not?

1. Expect Soto to play

Juan Soto

NYM • LF • #22

BA0.263

R11

HR4

RBI11

SB1

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Yankee-turned-Met Juan Soto exited Wednesday's game a few innings after fouling a pitch into his ankle, and losing Soto is pretty much the last thing the Mets need right now. X-rays showed no fracture, fortunately, and although the Mets initially said Soto is day-to-day, he was in the lineup Thursday afternoon at DH. It takes a lot to keep that man out of the lineup.

"I was concerned as soon as he got hit, because it got him pretty good there," Mendoza said after Wednesday's game (via MLB.com). "We went out there and you could tell that he was in pain. That second at-bat didn't look right. Then when I saw the trainer come my way, I knew something was up ... I'm glad that we got good news."

Playing Thursday strongly indicates Soto will be in the lineup against the Yankees this weekend. I mean, I'm pretty sure he would play on crutches before missing the Subway Series. If he's limited to DH, he's limited to DH. It's not like he's in the lineup for his left field defense anyway. Soto may be sore after taking that pitch to the ankle, but it's hard to see him not playing this weekend.

The Mets have averaged only 3.74 runs per game this year, one of the lowest marks in baseball, and a big reason is their inability to handle premium velocity. Going into Thursday, the Mets ranked 28th in batting average (.208) and 30th in slugging percentage (.269) against pitches at 95 mph or better. Every other team was slugging at least .300 against 95-plus mph heat.

Soto is, by a mile, New York's best hitter against premium velocity, and the Mets will definitely need him against Schlittler and Weathers this weekend. They're two of the hardest throwers in the sport. Schlittler uses his three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) a combined 91% of the time, and they're all mid-to-upper-90s. He's a particularly bad matchup for the Mets even with Soto.

In his last 10 games, Soto has gone 6 for 29 (.207) with two homers, so he's in a little slump right now in addition to probably being sore from that foul ball. A hitter this talented is always one at-bat away from snapping out of it and going on a hot streak, though. The Mets will need Soto this weekend in general, and especially against those high-velocity arms the Yankees will start.

2. Yankees need more from the bottom of the order

Jazz Chisholm

NYY • 2B • #13

BA0.203

R17

HR4

RBI14

SB11

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The Yankees enter the Subway Series reeling a bit. They've lost six of their last eight games and they scored 0, 3, 3, 2, 6, and 0 runs in their last six games. They put up a five-run third inning against the Orioles on Tuesday and scored three runs in the rest of the series. The offense is in a cold spell right now and the blame lies with the bottom of the order.

"Overall, we've had a good offense, but we gotta get some more guys contributing regularly," manager Aaron Boone said after Wednesday's shutout loss (via the New York Daily News). "And look, you see it around the league. There's a lot of really good players out there scuffling to this point, so it's part of it. We've had some guys flash it and start to pull themselves out a little bit, but we're obviously looking for a little more consistency."

Bellinger, Judge, and Rice have been terrific. They are blameless for the Yankees' recent lack of offense. It's the rest of the lineup that is letting the Yankees down. Here are the numbers:

Injuries play a role here. The Yankees are down their starting shortstop (José Caballero), primary DH (Giancarlo Stanton), and second-string DH (Jasson Domínguez). Caballero and Stanton in particular provided meaningful lineup depth, and neither will be available for the Subway Series. Every team has injuries, though. As a wise man once said: That's baseball, Suzyn.

The Yankees are still waiting for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to play to the back of his baseball card and for Grisham's strong under-the-hood numbers to turn into consistent production. Ryan McMahon has never been much of a hitter, and strikeout-prone prospect Spencer Jones has yet to show the mammoth power that has kept him relevant. I'm not sure how much you can expect from those two.

Seven weeks into the season, the Yankees have a top-heavy lineup with soft spots elsewhere. Chisholm, Jones, and McMahon are all swing-and-miss-prone lefties who typically hit within three or four lineup spots of each other, making for easy matchups (though the Mets figure to use Brooks Raley against Bellinger and Rice). Can the bottom of the order muster anything this weekend?

3. The Mets could really use this series

The standings make it clear that the Mets need a series win more than the Yankees this weekend. The Yankees have lost six of their last eight games and they want to snap out of that funk, for sure, but they're near the top of the standings and aren't in dire straits. The Mets, on the other hand, have exhausted their margin of error already. They have to stack a lot of wins and soon to get back in the postseason race.

The Mets just swept a series from the floundering Tigers and this weekend is a chance to build on that. Beating the Yankees would be uplifting in a way that beating any other team would not, especially for the fan base. The Mets badly need a vibe shift. Taking a series from the Yankees would accomplish that. Energize the fan base, change the vibes, and good things can start to happen.

Few things excite fans as much as young players coming into their own and Mets rookie outfielder Carson Benge is starting to do that. A miserable April (.525 OPS) has given way to an excellent May (.888 OPS) and, this week, an ascent to the leadoff spot. Fellow top prospect A.J. Ewing came up earlier this week and drew three walks and tripled in his MLB debut Tuesday, then hit his first major-league home run on Thursday.

"It definitely beat my expectations. It's indescribable what it feels like to play out there in a big league stadium," Ewing said after his MLB debut (via MLB.com). "... I'm confident in my ability. I'm just going to play the same game I've been playing and do what I do."

Benge's recent success and Ewing's arrival have given the Mets a lift both on the field and just in their general vibe. Young players create good feelings in a way veterans just can't. If the Baby Mets can lead them to a series win over the Yankees this weekend, it just might be the vibe shift and overall turning point the Mets need to get their season on the rails.

4. (Citi) Field of Nightmares

The Yankees are 4-12 in their last 16 games at Citi Field, and they haven't won a series in Queens since 2018. All-time, the Yankees lead the head-to-head Subway Series 83-69 (plus there was the 2000 World Series), though the Mets have had the advantage over the last few years. Since 2021, the Mets are 15-9 against the Yankees, and are 6-2-2 in their 10 head-to-head series.

Now, what happens in 2021 or 2025 or even last week doesn't matter a whole lot this weekend. New series, new matchups, etc. The facts are the facts, though. The Mets have dominated the Yankees at Citi Field (and in general) across the last few years. Perhaps that gives a team that frankly needs all the help it can get a little confidence boost going into the weekend.

Subway Series Prediction

The Mets have outplayed the Yankees over the last week or so, but I'm gonna say the Yankees win two of three. Schlittler's velocity and fastball-heavy approach is a terrible matchup for a Mets team that doesn't hit velocity at all. I figure the Yankees will come out ahead Friday thanks to Schlittler, then find a way to scratch out another win Saturday or Sunday. It has been foretold.