IPL Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 15 matches to go, PBKS chances drop to 64.4% while DC cling on at 3.2% - odds for each team explained

With 15 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs and DC is barely hanging in there. RCB, SRH and GT would have do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs and PBKS too remains in a good position to get there despite Monday’s loss.

CSK and RR have a better than even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. KKR have a slim chance. There remain 32,768 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the eight remaining in the race.

We look at the probabilities:

• RCB have an 88.4% chance of finishing among the top four by points (including possible ties for one or more of those spots) and a 59.4% chance of being among the top two
• SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points is only very marginally lower at 88.1% and they have a 59% chance of being among the top two
• GT have an 88.2% chance of finishing within the top four in terms of points but their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly is a touch higher than both RCB and SRH at 60%
• Monday’s loss haspushed PBKS’ chances of ending up among the top four on points down to 64.4% and they have only a 28.2% chance of finishing among the top two
• At 53.8%, CSK have a better than even chance of getting into the top four but just 22% chance of ending up among the top two
• RR have a slightly lower 53.6% chance of ending up among the top four and only 18.5% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots
• KKR have a slim 13.5% chance of making the last four but they can even now end up among the top two on points, though there’s only a minuscule 3.7% chance of that
• With Monday’s win, DC have kept alive their hopes of making the playoffs, but only just, with a 3.2% probability. They can at best finish third tied with anywhere between two and four other teams

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 32,768 possible combinations of results remaining with 15 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied.

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We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, RCB finish in the top four in 28,980 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 88.4% chance of being among the top four, singly or jointly.