Ira Winderman: Win or lose, Heat will feel tangible lottery impact

So if not the Heat on the rise in the lottery draw, then what Sunday outcomes might be of the greatest impact to the Heat going forward?

Likely these …

— Indiana Pacers: No matter the lottery result, the Pacers will return next season with a dramatically different outlook from what was on display at 19-63 this season, with Tyrese Haliburton returning from his season away following his Achilles tear and Ivica Zubac to get his first true rotation minutes since his acquisition at the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline from the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Pacers will be better next season, much better.

Based on the lottery results, they could become set for years.

The Pacers are in a unique spot as the No. 2 lottery seed.

With a 14% shot at the top pick and 52.1% chance of a first-four pick, the Pacers’ pick otherwise goes to the Clippers if it falls at their other two possible landing spots — No. 5 or No. 6 — because of the Zubac trade. The chances of that happening are 27.84% of the Pacers landing at No. 5 and 20.06% of Indiana landing at No. 6.

Factoring in Haliburton and Zubac, the Pacers will be on the rise. Add in BYU forward AJ Dybantsa, Kansas wing Darryn Peterson, Duke big man Cameron Boozer, North Carolina big man Caleb Wilson or Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. and they could have the Heat in chase mode for years to come.

To the Heat, one of the best lottery outcomes would be the Clippers’ lottery logo showing up in the Pacers’ lottery slot.

— Atlanta Hawks: Based on their late-season surge and the scare thrown into the New York Knicks in the first round, the Hawks appear to have regained a better way after the midseason trade of Trae Young to the Washington Wizards.

On a roster already loaded with wing options, including 2026 Most Improved Player Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the lottery could further bolster the core.

Here’s why: Through a series of trades, including one last year on draft night, the Hawks, who escaped the lottery with their playoff bid, are among those best positioned for a lottery launch.

Based on the right to claim the better of the lottery selections of the New Orleans Pelicans or Milwaukee Bucks, the Hawks have combined lottery odds of 9.8% for the top pick or 43.2% for one of the first four selections.

Already with Walker, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels and the possible free-agency returns of Jonathan Kuminga and CJ McCollum, just imagine the possibilities (including trade possibilities) with Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, Wilson or Darius or Acuff as potential Atlanta selections.

— Milwaukee Bucks: Because of previous maneuvering that leaves them with the worst of the lottery picks between themselves and the Pelicans, the Bucks cannot exit the lottery with the top pick. Further, the odds of the Bucks moving up from the No. 10 seed to Nos. 2, 3 or 4 are just 2.6%.

However, if those remote odds somehow come into play, it would give the Bucks a piece that might entice Giannis Antetokounmpo to want to stay or give Milwaukee a trade chip to give Giannis a stronger veteran supporting complement.

For the Heat, any lottery outcome that gives the Bucks something to chase other than a Heat package will stand, at least in theory, as a setback.

— Golden State Warriors: As the No. 11 lottery seed, the Warriors have only a 2% chance at the top pick and a 9.4% chance of a top-four pick.

However, if Golden State somehow could beat those odds, it would give them a potential prized chip to toss into a package for Antetokounmpo, having been a prime pursuer of Giannis at February’s trade deadline.

The last time the Warriors drafted at the top of the lottery, they made the lamentable move for James Wiseman at No. 2 in 2022. Based on wanting to give Stephen Curry and Draymond Green one last shot at glory, a Warriors’ lottery rise this time could very much signal an impending trade.

— Charlotte Hornets: A Hornets move up from No. 14 would be the only means of the Heat moving down from No. 13 to the 14th and final lottery pick.

The Hornets have a 0.5% chance of the top pick and a 2.4% chance of one of the first four selections.

Then again, based on how things went with the Terry Rozier trade and the flagrant foul on LaMelo Ball that went uncalled in real time in the Heat’s play-in elimination last month in Charlotte, getting stung by the Hornets has almost become de rigueur.

— Oklahoma City Thunder: This would be the nuclear outcome more for the league than necessarily the Heat.

As part of the 2019 trade that sent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from the Clippers to the Thunder for Paul George, a trade that keeps on giving, Oklahoma City holds the unprotected rights to the Clippers No. 12 lottery seed.

That gives the defending NBA champions a 1.5% shot at the top overall pick and a 7.1% shot at a top-four selection. Just imagine adding a top-four pick to what already is in place.

Oh, and the Thunder also hold the Philadelphia 76ers’ No. 17 pick (Oklahoma City’s own No. 30 goes to the Mavericks).

— The East others: Yes, the No. 1 Washington Wizards, No. 3 Brooklyn Nets and No. 9 Chicago Bulls all have far better lottery odds than the Heat. But each of those Eastern Conference rebuilds does not figure to receive an immediate jolt up the standings with one more lottery pick.

Still, the logo of any East team showing up among the first four selections would mean another team gaining on the Heat … unless it is the Heat logo among those first four picks.