Is Justin Wrobleski’s 1.25 ERA Sustainable? The Red Flags Suggest Otherwise

Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Justin Wrobleski (70) yells out after striking out Arizona Diamondbacks hitter Alek Thomas (5) to win the game 5-4 in extra innings at Chase Field in Phoenix, on Sept. 24, 2025.

New York Mets pitcher Clay Holmes, whose 1.69 ERA is second best in the NL, has 31 strikeouts.

Wrobleski? He has just 15 Ks on the year, and on Sunday, he had zero in six scoreless innings.

Is Justin Wrobleski’s low strikeout count a problem?

As several Dodgers Nation commenters have pointed out, strikeouts aren’t a necessity for winning baseball.

“None of that stuff matters. It, particularly strikeouts, are flashy and glamorous, but it just doesn’t matter. What matters is getting people out and winning games. Way too much emphasis on strikeouts. It’s winning games and a low ERA. Doesn’t matter how you do it, it matters if you do it,” wrote Mike W.

And as commenter Steve explained, there are benefits to getting quick outs via help from your fielders as opposing to trying to strike out every batter.

“Agree with Mike W that pitching results more [important] than velocity and Ks – in addition a pitcher like Robo who is throwing strikes and inducing weak contact – will often have lower pitch count resulting in longer outings and less usage of bullpen,” Steve wrote.

It was commenter Rich, though, who brought up the crux of the issue when agreeing with Mike W.

Strikeouts aren’t more important than ERA and wins, but “the only issue is if those balls that are hit and being caught start to become base hits.”

“There are those analytics which try to determine if a player is lucky and likely to see a regression or not. A strikeout is an out that can’t be due for a regression because there is no defense for it,” Rich wrote.

Wrobleski’s Statistics Bring up Worrying Comparison

Per Baseball Savant, the pitcher who most closely resembles Wrobleski is not another statistical leader.

In fact, it’s a pitcher having a rough go of it in 2026.

Rhett Lowder of the Cincinnati Reds and Wrobleski have similar expected batting averages (.279 for Lowder, .270 for Wrobleski), expected slugging (.421 and .412, respectively) and hard-hit percentages (38.9% and 40.2%, respectively.

When it comes to ERA, though the differences are huge.

Again, Wrobleski is second in the NL with 1.25. Lowder? 5.09.

And Baseball Savant’s figures indicate that the two pitchers’ ERAs are expected to be much closer together, with 4.66 for Lowder and 4.24 for Wrobleski.

So enjoy what Justin Wrobleski is doing on the mound thus far. You can’t argue with stats like wins and ERA.

But be concerned if, like Rich said, “those balls that are hit and being caught start to become base hits.”

Wrobleski has had his share of traffic on the base paths, and a few more groundouts and lineouts turning into hits could hurt his excellent ERA.

That said, through five starts, six games and 36 innings, Wrobleski has continued to dominate.

Do you think he can keep it up for the rest of the season?

Jordan Hum contributed to this article.