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Kansas State football faces mixed projections ahead of the season, with national outlets predicting a lower finish in the Big 12 while sportsbooks rank them among the top four favorites to win the league.
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Kansas State football's early national projections, sportsbooks disagree
MANHATTAN — Early expectations around Kansas State football ahead of Collin Klein's first season as coach are a bit all over the place.
More than three months ahead of the season, national outlets tend to project Kansas State as a team that will finish in the back half of the Big 12. Meanwhile, sportsbooks have projected the Wildcats as one of the four favorites to win the league.
What gives?
A recent USA TODAY projection picked the Wildcats to finish 10th in the league, calling this season a rebuilding year. ESPN might have added fuel to the low expectations when it ranked the Wildcats 10th among Big 12 teams for their offseason, noting turnover on the offensive and defensive lines.
Kansas State freshman wide receiver Julius Wilson (16) walks in to practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State sophomore offensive lineman Gus Hawkins (70) works on a drill with sophomore offensive lineman Ryan Howard (72) during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
National outlets project Kansas State to finish in the back half of the Big 12.
Sportsbooks have ranked Kansas State as one of the four favorites to win the Big 12, indicating differing expectations.
Collin Klein is the new head coach for Kansas State football.
The projections are made more than three months ahead of the upcoming season.

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Kansas State players run to positions during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State head coach Collin Klein slaps hands with senior quarterback Avery Johnson (2) during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State football players warm up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State defensive lineman coach Buddy Wyatt watches players warm up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State head coach Collin Klein fist bumps associate head and wide recievers coach Thad Ward during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State senior quarterback Avery Johnson (2) warms up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State senior quarterback Jacob Knuth (7) warms up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State tight ends coach Brian Lepak makes calls during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State defensive backs coach Jeremiah Johnson watches players warm up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State players warm up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State running backs coach Cory Patterson runs with players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State junior offensive lineman Tanner Morley (77) works on plays during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State sophomore quarterback Blake Barnett (3) throws a pass during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State offensive lineman coach Mike Schmidt talks with players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State sophomore defensive back Koy Beasley (0) works on plays during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State head coach Collin Klein walks the field during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State defensive tackles coach Jordan Dove talks with players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State redshirt freshman safety RJ Collins (13) runs plays during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State senior defensive back Adrian Maddox (2) works through plays during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State freshman running back Tanner West (24) makes a catch during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State sophomore running back Rodney Fields Jr. (20) makes a pass during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State quarterbacks coach Christian Ellsworth talks to players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State senior quarterback Avery Johnson (2) throws a pass during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State junior tight end Will Anciaux (80) makes a catch during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State sophomore tight end Linkon Cure (0) walks to a position during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State senior running back Jay Harris (9) runs drills during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State coach Collin Klein walks the field during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State sophomore wide receiver Ben Wheeler (27) makes a catch during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State defensive players work through drills during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State freshman wide receiver Julius Wilson (16) walks in to practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State freshman wide receiver Julius Wilson (16) walks in to practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State sophomore offensive lineman Gus Hawkins (70) works on a drill with sophomore offensive lineman Ryan Howard (72) during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State players run to positions during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State head coach Collin Klein slaps hands with senior quarterback Avery Johnson (2) during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State football players warm up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State defensive lineman coach Buddy Wyatt watches players warm up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State head coach Collin Klein fist bumps associate head and wide recievers coach Thad Ward during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State senior quarterback Avery Johnson (2) warms up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State senior quarterback Jacob Knuth (7) warms up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State tight ends coach Brian Lepak makes calls during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State defensive backs coach Jeremiah Johnson watches players warm up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State players warm up during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State running backs coach Cory Patterson runs with players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State junior offensive lineman Tanner Morley (77) works on plays during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State sophomore quarterback Blake Barnett (3) throws a pass during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State offensive lineman coach Mike Schmidt talks with players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State sophomore defensive back Koy Beasley (0) works on plays during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State head coach Collin Klein walks the field during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State defensive tackles coach Jordan Dove talks with players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State redshirt freshman safety RJ Collins (13) runs plays during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State senior defensive back Adrian Maddox (2) works through plays during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State freshman running back Tanner West (24) makes a catch during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State sophomore running back Rodney Fields Jr. (20) makes a pass during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State quarterbacks coach Christian Ellsworth talks to players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State senior quarterback Avery Johnson (2) throws a pass during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State junior tight end Will Anciaux (80) makes a catch during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State sophomore tight end Linkon Cure (0) walks to a position during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State senior running back Jay Harris (9) runs drills during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State coach Collin Klein walks the field during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State sophomore wide receiver Ben Wheeler (27) makes a catch during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
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Kansas State defensive players work through drills during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Post-transfer portal power rankings, including one by CBS Sports that ranked K-State ninth in February, placed the Wildcats in the back half of the league because of their losses on defense. At the same time, they expect teams like Oklahoma State, TCU, Houston and Arizona to rise.
But the sportsbooks see a different story, with Kansas State having the fourth-best odds to win the Big 12, according to both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Those major books place the Wildcats behind Texas Tech, BYU and Utah. Coincidentally, K-State doesn't play any of those teams this season, which contributes to the Wildcats having favorable odds.
FanDuel sets the Wildcats' win total over/under at 8.5, tied with the over/under for BYU and Utah, while Texas Tech is at 10.5. Expectations for the Red Raiders have remained high, even with the uncertainty at quarterback after Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby entered a gambling addiction program and could receive punishment from the NCAA after reportedly betting on Indiana while redshirting for the Hoosiers as a true freshman in 2022.
Kansas State's favorable schedule, on paper, will be a major talking point as the season approaches.
The Wildcats open with five of their first six games at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Five of their nine conference games are against teams whose championship odds are among those in the back half of the league. Their two most difficult games, according to Big 12 championship odds, are both at home: against Houston and Arizona.
At the same time, the Wildcats' two FBS non-conference opponents, Washington and Tulane, both have new head coaches and major roster turnover. K-State opens the year with FCS Nicholls, which is coming off a 4-8 season.
Wyatt D. Wheeler covers Kansas State athletics for the USA TODAY Network and Topeka Capital-Journal. You can follow him on X at @WyattWheeler_, contact him at 417-371-6987 or email him at wwheeler@usatodayco.com
This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas State football expectations differ between experts, sportsbooks